Making money with Pharoah in The Preakness: Hit The Super

[nads1420]

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

[raybo]

Originally Posted by nads1420

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

I think this ticket would be a mistake. First of all you have AP, a low odds favorite on top, gobs of people will have him there (you just started cutting down the payout). Secondly, you have Firing Line and Dortmund on the place line, gobs of people will have them there too, plus your other two place horses are also going to be bet heavily on the place, show, and 4th lines (you just continued cutting down the payout). Thirdly, you have the same 4 horses on the show and 4th lines along with two others that will be bet on those lines by gobs of people.

In short you have stuck yourself in a closet you can't get out of, you have no horses on your ticket that will cause it to have value, should they come in. You'd probably be better off taking that $60 and betting a larger exacta with multiple horses on both lines. If you can't get at least 2 longshots on your single $1 superfecta ticket, the payout will probably not be as good, nor as probable of hitting, as a larger $base exacta, with more coverage on both lines.

[nads1420]

im gonna make other bets... but as far as the super goes thats just how i see the race ending up. sure id like to bet a bomb and have him hit but thats jusst not gonna happen. there are 4 horses in this that are far better then the rest.... if i can make that 60 dollar bet and have it pay out 400 im cool with that.. ill be making other bets as well

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by nads1420

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

You went "1/ 234/234567/234567" with the favorite on top and almost every horse in order of public odds.

You have a solid chance at hitting should the result be logical, however, you don't have any value built into your ticket.

It's a good ticket for trying to 'have' the super, but it's a long-term losing proposition.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

You went "1/ 234/234567/234567" with the favorite on top and almost every horse in order of public odds.

You have a solid chance at hitting should the result be logical, however, you don't have any value built into your ticket.

It's a good ticket for trying to 'have' the super, but it's a long-term losing proposition.

for me in this race im not betting the bombs in the super... the super im just gonna bet the most logical way i see the race unfolding. The Preakness does usually have the most logical outcome of the 3 races... im not saying no to bet the bombs and build value but not in the super... most of my other bets will be with the bombs.. but from a logical ticket i think trying to hit the super is the only way of doing it and getting some type of a return

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by nads1420

for me in this race im not betting the bombs in the super... the super im just gonna bet the most logical way i see the race unfolding. The Preakness does usually have the most logical outcome of the 3 races... im not saying no to bet the bombs and build value but not in the super... most of my other bets will be with the bombs.. but from a logical ticket i think trying to hit the super is the only way of doing it and getting some type of a return

Your ticket is fine, if you want to say 'I had the super'.


If you are trying get some value from it, then start with your ticket as your rough-draft, and then come up with some opinions. There are a number of ways you can do this.

I'll try asking you a question. - Say American Pharoah wins, - Is there another horse that you feel is guaranteed to be SOMEWHERE in the super(either 2nd,3rd,or4th?). Who?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by nads1420

thoughts?
I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

Very weak approach. The sad true is that these is very little to be gained by playing AP in the Preakness.. Although the most frequent winner (by far), he will also be a huge underlay in all kinds of bets..

[raybo]

Originally Posted by nads1420

for me in this race im not betting the bombs in the super... the super im just gonna bet the most logical way i see the race unfolding. The Preakness does usually have the most logical outcome of the 3 races... im not saying no to bet the bombs and build value but not in the super... most of my other bets will be with the bombs.. but from a logical ticket i think trying to hit the super is the only way of doing it and getting some type of a return

You asked for our thoughts, if you have already made up your mind, then why ask? Good luck getting your $400 payout. And good luck with the race running the way almost everyone is going to bet it. Superfectas are valuable bet types, IF you can find good value, otherwise they are terrible bets because of the low hit rate (except for the dime supers to be used as savers/hedges for other value bets, by betting multiple horses on all 4 lines (good hit rate, and the possibility of hitting a very good payout should the low odds horses not win or come second)).

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by nads1420

for me in this race im not betting the bombs in the super... the super im just gonna bet the most logical way i see the race unfolding. The Preakness does usually have the most logical outcome of the 3 races... im not saying no to bet the bombs and build value but not in the super... most of my other bets will be with the bombs.. but from a logical ticket i think trying to hit the super is the only way of doing it and getting some type of a return

There is only one guaranteed thing about the superfecta: You will never make a profit betting it if your opinion in the win and place slots does not deviate from the opinion of the general public's. Betting 60 combinations, with an odds-on pick on top and the other three betting choices for second, is about the worst bet that you could possibly make...in my opinion.

[nads1420]

Originally Posted by raybo

You asked for our thoughts, if you have already made up your mind, then why ask? Good luck getting your $400 payout. And good luck with the race running the way almost everyone is going to bet it. Superfectas are valuable bet types, IF you can find good value, otherwise they are terrible bets because of the low hit rate (except for the dime supers to be used as savers/hedges for other value bets, by betting multiple horses on all 4 lines (good hit rate, and the possibility of hitting a very good payout should the low odds horses not win or come second)).

i appreciate the thoughts... what horses do you guys recommend using then? i see the bottom few longer odds horses as very weak... very very very weak


very well could rain all day do any of the longer odds horses like the slop?

weather.com says 84 and 80% rain/ accuweather.com says 82 and sunny - damn weather people cant make up there mind

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There is only one guaranteed thing about the superfecta: You will never make a profit betting it if your opinion in the win and place slots does not deviate from the opinion of the general public's. Betting 60 combinations, with an odds-on pick on top and the other three betting choices for second, is about the worst bet that you could possibly make...in my opinion.

That's what I was trying to tell him. You have to weigh your ticket against how many other like tickets will be in the pool, which in his case will be a whole lot of tickets. The payout is determined by the size of the pool, and the number of winning tickets in that pool, nothing else.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Originally Posted by nads1420

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

I think the SUPER is a good wagering option on this day. Rather than spread out for $60.00 you may want to play just a few combinations many times. It will be short money as little as $12.00 to give yourself a shot.

I think Firing Line will battle whoever is with him and come up just short again, so I'll single him second like I did on Derby day. This time I'll hit repeat a few times and if it comes in I’ll hope for a modest profit, perhaps better depending on who else I throw in the mix.

1 AP, Dorfman
2 Firing Line
3 AP, Dorfman
4 other Horse 1, other Horse 2, other Horse 3, etc.

something like above can cut down expense not eating up much of your winnings if you hit. Good Luck.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by raybo

You asked for our thoughts, if you have already made up your mind, then why ask?

Good question.

I was 'duped' into thinking the topic was literal in nature. Not the first time either.

[f2tornado]

First, I'd wait to see which horses are actually going to be in the gate. I have not heard anything about Materiality or Competitive Edge. Second, I'd make the ticket a bit smaller or perhaps use that one for a dimer saver bet if those are offered on Preakness day. Consider a tri wheel which should offer far better value for the price than the chalk exacta. If the Pletcher horses don't run then you're left with AP/FL,DORT/FL,DORT,DM,DR. That's still gonna cost $8 for maybe a $25 payoff unless FL or DORT miss the board.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by nads1420

what horses do you guys recommend using then?

Passing is your best option here.