|
|
02-16-2015, 01:27 PM
|
#1
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
Class rankings
Queried the database this morning for lifetime performances of the entire crop. Looks like there are 5567 North American 3yos with at least three lifetime starts at this point in the year and those are the only ones I rated.
As of 2/16 the computer's best estimate of the top 100 is as follows:
1 Upstart
2 American Pharoah
3 Dortmund
4 Barbados
5 Condo Commando
6 Firing Line
7 Carpe Diem
8 Frosted
9 Bluegrass Singer
10 Mr. Jordan
11 Paulassilverlining
12 Blofeld
13 Ocho Ocho Ocho
14 Sunset Glow
15 Sarah Sis
16 Birdatthewire
17 Ready for Rye
18 Calculator
19 El Kabeir
20 Her Emmynency
21 Lady Eli
22 Majestic Affair
23 Saratoga Heater
24 Promise Me Silver
25 Wonder Gal
26 One Lucky Dane
27 Take Charge Brandi
28 Far Right
29 West Coast Belle
30 Cinco Charlie
31 Nasa
32 Souper Colossal
33 Vision Perfect
34 Ekati's Phaeton
35 Mr. Z
36 Texas Red
37 Taylor S
38 Callback
39 Consumer Credit
40 Feathered
41 Lassofthemohicans
42 Luck of the Kitten
43 Night Prowler
44 War Story
45 Bayerd
46 Bold Conquest
47 Danzig Moon
48 Freudie Anne
49 Great Stuff
50 I'm a Chatterbox
51 Leap Year Luck
52 My Johnny Be Good
53 R Sassy Lass
54 Tiznow R J
55 X Y Jet
56 Catalina Red
57 International Star
58 Another Lemon Drop
59 Croninthebarbarian
60 Danessa Deluxe
61 Nonna's Boy
62 Puca
63 Senor Grits
64 Wireless Future
65 Zandar
66 Ami's Flatter
67 Imperia
68 Lord Nelson
69 Lost Bus
70 Nun the Less
71 Oceanwave
72 Shook Up
73 Shotgun Kowboy
74 By the Moon
75 Conquest Eclipse
76 Conquest Typhoon
77 Heart's Song
78 Lady Shipman
79 Bolo
80 Bustin It
81 Danny Boy
82 Dubai Sky
83 Flashaway
84 Golden Years
85 Keen Ice
86 Lawn Ranger
87 Recount
88 Seduire
89 She's Complete (IRE)
90 Tizquick
91 Wake Up Nick
92 Classy Class
93 Courtier
94 I Spent It
95 My Fiona
96 Startup Nation
97 All in Fun
98 Enchantress
99 Milehigh Butterfly
100 Miss Temple City
|
|
|
02-19-2015, 07:12 PM
|
#2
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
How is Sarah Sis ahead of Take Charge Brandi?
|
|
|
02-19-2015, 07:51 PM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
How is Sarah Sis ahead of Take Charge Brandi?
|
Good catch, fair question. To a certain extent consistency plays a role in how the computer ranks class on that particular day, the efforts that are being examined show Sarah Sis being the more 'steady' performer.
It's essentially a rank based upon the premise of each of these horses entering the gate on the day of the calculation and will of course change as each new effort is logged.
I might post an updated ranking several weeks from now if there's interest.
Last edited by MJC922; 02-19-2015 at 07:54 PM.
|
|
|
03-09-2015, 09:03 PM
|
#4
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
3/9 status: 6038 North American 3yos with at least three lifetime starts.
The computer's best estimate of the top 100 class rankings today:
Code:
1 Upstart
2 Condo Commando
3 Dortmund
4 American Pharoah
5 Carpe Diem
6 I'm a Chatterbox
7 Birdatthewire
8 Firing Line
9 Ready for Rye
10 Barbados
11 Bolo
12 Sunset Glow
13 Mr. Jordan
14 Blofeld
15 El Kabeir
16 Calculator
17 Divining Rod
18 International Star
19 Her Emmynency
20 Lady Eli
21 Frosted
22 Far Right
23 Saratoga Heater
24 Sarah Sis
25 Majestic Affair
26 Ami's Flatter
27 Promise Me Silver
28 Ekati's Phaeton
29 Itsaknockout
30 Lovely Maria
31 Devine Aida
32 A Lot
33 Wonder Gal
34 Nasa
35 Prospect Park
36 West Coast Belle
37 Vision Perfect
38 Mr. Z
39 Texas Red
40 One Lucky Dane
41 Lassofthemohicans
42 Souper Colossal
43 Paulassilverlining
44 Take Charge Brandi
45 War Story
46 Huasca
47 Luck of the Kitten
48 Eskenformoney
49 Lord Nelson
50 Classy Class
51 Hillbilly Royalty
52 Puca
53 R Sassy Lass
54 Consumer Credit
55 Bluegrass Singer
56 Taylor S
57 Angela Renee
58 Callback
59 Nonna's Boy
60 Bold Conquest
61 Leap Year Luck
62 Oceanwave
63 Catalina Red
64 Stanford
65 Wireless Future
66 Fond of Sarah
67 Quality Rocks
68 Conquest Typhoon
69 Zandar
70 Danzig Moon
71 Bustin It
72 Fantastic Style
73 Keen Ice
74 Danessa Deluxe
75 I Spent It
76 Light the City
77 Nun the Less
78 Recount
79 By the Moon
80 Dubai Sky
81 My Fiona
82 Shook Up
83 Conquest Eclipse
84 Forever Unbridled
85 Cinco Charlie
86 Imperia
87 Startup Nation
88 Lost Bus
89 Courtier
90 Heart's Song
91 Tizquick
92 Flashaway
93 Lawn Ranger
94 Wake Up Nick
95 Silver Ride
96 Another Lemon Drop
97 Shotgun Kowboy
98 She's Complete (IRE)
99 Seduire
100 Island Town
|
|
|
03-10-2015, 03:53 PM
|
#5
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
3/9 status: 6038 North American 3yos with at least three lifetime starts.
The computer's best estimate of the top 100 class rankings today:
Code:
1 Upstart
2 Condo Commando
3 Dortmund
4 American Pharoah
5 Carpe Diem
6 I'm a Chatterbox
7 Birdatthewire
8 Firing Line
9 Ready for Rye
10 Barbados
11 Bolo
12 Sunset Glow
13 Mr. Jordan
14 Blofeld
15 El Kabeir
16 Calculator
17 Divining Rod
18 International Star
19 Her Emmynency
20 Lady Eli
21 Frosted
22 Far Right
23 Saratoga Heater
24 Sarah Sis
25 Majestic Affair
26 Ami's Flatter
27 Promise Me Silver
28 Ekati's Phaeton
29 Itsaknockout
30 Lovely Maria
31 Devine Aida
32 A Lot
33 Wonder Gal
34 Nasa
35 Prospect Park
36 West Coast Belle
37 Vision Perfect
38 Mr. Z
39 Texas Red
40 One Lucky Dane
41 Lassofthemohicans
42 Souper Colossal
43 Paulassilverlining
44 Take Charge Brandi
45 War Story
46 Huasca
47 Luck of the Kitten
48 Eskenformoney
49 Lord Nelson
50 Classy Class
51 Hillbilly Royalty
52 Puca
53 R Sassy Lass
54 Consumer Credit
55 Bluegrass Singer
56 Taylor S
57 Angela Renee
58 Callback
59 Nonna's Boy
60 Bold Conquest
61 Leap Year Luck
62 Oceanwave
63 Catalina Red
64 Stanford
65 Wireless Future
66 Fond of Sarah
67 Quality Rocks
68 Conquest Typhoon
69 Zandar
70 Danzig Moon
71 Bustin It
72 Fantastic Style
73 Keen Ice
74 Danessa Deluxe
75 I Spent It
76 Light the City
77 Nun the Less
78 Recount
79 By the Moon
80 Dubai Sky
81 My Fiona
82 Shook Up
83 Conquest Eclipse
84 Forever Unbridled
85 Cinco Charlie
86 Imperia
87 Startup Nation
88 Lost Bus
89 Courtier
90 Heart's Song
91 Tizquick
92 Flashaway
93 Lawn Ranger
94 Wake Up Nick
95 Silver Ride
96 Another Lemon Drop
97 Shotgun Kowboy
98 She's Complete (IRE)
99 Seduire
100 Island Town
|
MJ, I see you have Upstart at #1, do you take into consideration his very slow final time of 1:46 in the FOY? Or is the class you're talking about just pedigree, excuse me for asking......
|
|
|
03-10-2015, 04:16 PM
|
#6
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
|
I love this sort of thing.
Do you have some sort of adjustment in place for fillies relative to colts?
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
03-10-2015, 06:31 PM
|
#7
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
MJ, I see you have Upstart at #1, do you take into consideration his very slow final time of 1:46 in the FOY? Or is the class you're talking about just pedigree, excuse me for asking......
|
Hi S.A.M. the 1:46 time is ignored. The computer is looking at horse against horse, the final margins and the weights.
|
|
|
03-10-2015, 06:50 PM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,481
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
How is Sarah Sis ahead of Take Charge Brandi?
|
Take Charge Brandi off the trail due to bone chip. Announced today.
|
|
|
03-10-2015, 07:02 PM
|
#9
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I love this sort of thing.
Do you have some sort of adjustment in place for fillies relative to colts?
|
Hi Class, in theory it's self-correcting. When females face males they're looked at no differently, it's looking at everyone in the pool so to speak and the pecking order inevitably shakes out over time. You can confirm the validity that it is indeed self correcting when you query the winning efforts to obtain class pars and the fillies come in with a weaker par as expected.
Probably as pure a measure of 'current class' as I could develop anyway. Took awhile, it better be more than good, it better be without equal.
Last edited by MJC922; 03-10-2015 at 07:05 PM.
|
|
|
03-24-2015, 10:32 PM
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
24Mar15 Top 100 North American 3YOs
Code:
1 Upstart
2 Condo Commando
3 Firing Line
4 Dortmund
5 Carpe Diem
6 American Pharoah
7 Birdatthewire
8 I'm a Chatterbox
9 Ready for Rye
10 Blofeld
11 Barbados
12 Bolo
13 Mr. Jordan
14 Sunset Glow
15 Lady Eli
16 El Kabeir
17 Calculator
18 Divining Rod
19 Her Emmynency
20 Noble and a Beauty
21 Taylor S
22 Saratoga Heater
23 International Star
24 Sarah Sis
25 Ekati's Phaeton
26 Itsaknockout
27 Frosted
28 Lovely Maria
29 Ami's Flatter
30 Wonder Gal
31 Promise Me Silver
32 Far Right
33 Vision Perfect
34 Nasa
35 Majestic Affair
36 Lassofthemohicans
37 Huasca
38 Take Charge Brandi
39 Devine Aida
40 Mr. Z
41 Paulassilverlining
42 West Coast Belle
43 War Story
44 A Lot
45 Souper Colossal
46 Prospect Park
47 Dogwood Trail
48 Texas Red
49 Nonna's Boy
50 Classy Class
51 Puca
52 Eskenformoney
53 Bustin It
54 One Lucky Dane
55 Sir Alfred
56 Hillbilly Royalty
57 Consumer Credit
58 R Sassy Lass
59 Luck of the Kitten
60 Recount
61 By the Moon
62 Leap Year Luck
63 Lord Nelson
64 Fantastic Style
65 Bluegrass Singer
66 Angela Renee
67 Subtle Indian
68 Stanford
69 Oceanwave
70 Danzig Moon
71 Leave the Light On
72 Dubai Sky
73 Zandar
74 Catalina Red
75 Quality Rocks
76 Papacoolpapacool
77 Conquest Typhoon
78 Keen Ice
79 Shook Up
80 Forever Unbridled
81 Lady Shipman
82 Fond of Sarah
83 Danessa Deluxe
84 Poseidon's Way
85 Nun the Less
86 Island Town
87 Conquest Eclipse
88 Light the City
89 Startup Nation
90 She's Complete (IRE)
91 Heart's Song
92 El Deal
93 Lawn Ranger
94 Silver Ride
95 Cinco Charlie
96 Callback
97 Flashaway
98 Hard to Port
99 Lost Bus
100 Courtier
|
|
|
04-01-2015, 10:48 PM
|
#11
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
1Apr15 Top 100 North American 3YOs
Code:
1 Upstart
2 Condo Commando
3 Materiality
4 Firing Line
5 Dortmund
6 Carpe Diem
7 American Pharoah
8 Birdatthewire
9 Competitive Edge
10 Ready for Rye
11 Blofeld
12 Bolo
13 Eskenformoney
14 Barbados
15 Sunset Glow
16 Lady Eli
17 International Star
18 El Kabeir
19 Calculator
20 I'm a Chatterbox
21 Her Emmynency
22 Divining Rod
23 Noble and a Beauty
24 Saratoga Heater
25 Taylor S
26 Sarah Sis
27 Frosted
28 Vision Perfect
29 Wonder Gal
30 Promise Me Silver
31 Nasa
32 Lovely Maria
33 Sir Alfred
34 Majestic Affair
35 Far Right
36 Lassofthemohicans
37 Take Charge Brandi
38 Ami's Flatter
39 War Story
40 A Lot
41 Paulassilverlining
42 Texas Red
43 West Coast Belle
44 Souper Colossal
45 Prospect Park
46 Classy Class
47 One Lucky Dane
48 Nonna's Boy
49 Dogwood Trail
50 Stanford
51 Luck of the Kitten
52 Bustin It
53 Puca
54 Danessa Deluxe
55 Hillbilly Royalty
56 Consumer Credit
57 Recount
58 Lord Nelson
59 Fantastic Style
60 By the Moon
61 Leap Year Luck
62 R Sassy Lass
63 Bluegrass Singer
64 Angela Renee
65 Leave the Light On
66 Subtle Indian
67 Oceanwave
68 Zandar
69 Catalina Red
70 Papacoolpapacool
71 Abounding Legacy
72 Quality Rocks
73 Conquest Typhoon
74 Danzig Moon
75 Dubai Sky
76 Devine Aida
77 Nun the Less
78 Lady Shipman
79 Fond of Sarah
80 Startup Nation
81 Keen Ice
82 Conquest Eclipse
83 Light the City
84 Poseidon's Way
85 Shook Up
86 She's Complete (IRE)
87 Lawn Ranger
88 Forever Unbridled
89 Island Town
90 Imperia
91 Mr. Jordan
92 Heart's Song
93 El Deal
94 Callback
95 Hard to Port
96 Silver Ride
97 Flashaway
98 Tencendur
99 Cinco Charlie
100 Tizquick
|
|
|
04-01-2015, 11:08 PM
|
#12
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
|
MJ, what did you make of Upstarts race in the Fla derby? I don't mean the time, because the tracks been running deep & slow all year.
Do you think Violette had him fully cranked, I don't think he did......
|
|
|
04-02-2015, 12:08 AM
|
#13
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
MJ, what did you make of Upstarts race in the Fla derby? I don't mean the time, because the tracks been running deep & slow all year.
Do you think Violette had him fully cranked, I don't think he did......
|
Hard to say. It came up a good race for him, I had his race three back just a little better but essentially what you saw here IMO may be his A race. It's really hard for me to judge if the horse has a forward move left especially at the 10f. Which horse is just lurking right now with a flat line and can jump forward on derby day? I'd like to find that horse. I respect the class rankings and how predictive they typically are on race day but I've also seen that big forward move happen in the derby many times, somebody is going to surge.
|
|
|
04-08-2015, 08:05 PM
|
#14
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
8Apr15 Top 100 North American 3YOs
Code:
1 Upstart
2 Materiality
3 Condo Commando
4 Carpe Diem
5 Firing Line
6 Dortmund
7 American Pharoah
8 Competitive Edge
9 Birdatthewire
10 Blofeld
11 Barbados
12 Eskenformoney
13 Sunset Glow
14 International Star
15 Lady Eli
16 El Kabeir
17 Lovely Maria
18 Frosted
19 Ready for Rye
20 Calculator
21 Two Weeks Off
22 I'm a Chatterbox
23 Divining Rod
24 Her Emmynency
25 Angela Renee
26 Saratoga Heater
27 Puca
28 Taylor S
29 Stellar Wind
30 Vision Perfect
31 Nasa
32 Far Right
33 Sir Alfred
34 Promise Me Silver
35 Lord Nelson
36 Bolo
37 Ami's Flatter
38 War Story
39 One Lucky Dane
40 A Lot
41 Texas Red
42 Take Charge Brandi
43 Gimme Da Lute
44 Daredevil
45 Stanford
46 Paulassilverlining
47 Souper Colossal
48 Tencendur
49 Leave the Light On
50 Luck of the Kitten
51 Bustin It
52 Danzig Moon
53 Hillbilly Royalty
54 R Sassy Lass
55 Nonna's Boy
56 Danessa Deluxe
57 Recount
58 Lassofthemohicans
59 Consumer Credit
60 Wonder Gal
61 Oceanwave
62 By the Moon
63 Leap Year Luck
64 Prospect Park
65 Subtle Indian
66 Bluegrass Singer
67 Zandar
68 Catalina Red
69 Sarah Sis
70 Fantastic Style
71 Papacoolpapacool
72 Luminance
73 Abounding Legacy
74 Frammento
75 Classy Class
76 Conquest Typhoon
77 Dubai Sky
78 Quality Rocks
79 West Coast Belle
80 El Deal
81 Keen Ice
82 Enchanting Lady
83 Devine Aida
84 Nun the Less
85 Startup Nation
86 Shook Up
87 Lady Shipman
88 Poseidon's Way
89 Conquest Eclipse
90 Fond of Sarah
91 She's Complete (IRE)
92 March
93 Forever Unbridled
94 Lawn Ranger
95 Lost Bus
96 Imperia
97 Flashaway
98 Hard to Port
99 Mr. Jordan
100 Silverpocketsfull
|
|
|
04-14-2015, 07:58 PM
|
#15
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
|
14Apr15 Top 100 North American 3YOs
Code:
1 Upstart
2 Materiality
3 Condo Commando
4 Firing Line
5 Carpe Diem
6 Dortmund
7 American Pharoah
8 Competitive Edge
9 Birdatthewire
10 Lady Eli
11 Blofeld
12 Eskenformoney
13 Barbados
14 Divining Rod
15 Lovely Maria
16 International Star
17 El Kabeir
18 Frosted
19 Ready for Rye
20 I'm a Chatterbox
21 Calculator
22 Two Weeks Off
23 Her Emmynency
24 Angela Renee
25 Sir Alfred
26 Saratoga Heater
27 Puca
28 Taylor S
29 Stellar Wind
30 Vision Perfect
31 Nasa
32 Lord Nelson
33 Far Right
34 Bolo
35 Promise Me Silver
36 Texas Red
37 One Lucky Dane
38 Ami's Flatter
39 Sunset Glow
40 War Story
41 A Lot
42 Jacks Escarpment
43 Holy Boss
44 Take Charge Brandi
45 Daredevil
46 Leave the Light On
47 Souper Colossal
48 Gimme Da Lute
49 Stanford
50 Tencendur
51 Paulassilverlining
52 Danzig Moon
53 Luck of the Kitten
54 Bustin It
55 R Sassy Lass
56 Nonna's Boy
57 Lassofthemohicans
58 Nun the Less
59 Danessa Deluxe
60 Consumer Credit
61 Wonder Gal
62 Oceanwave
63 By the Moon
64 Prospect Park
65 Catalina Red
66 Bluegrass Singer
67 Leap Year Luck
68 Wisecracker
69 Zandar
70 Luminance
71 Sarah Sis
72 Papacoolpapacool
73 Conquest Typhoon
74 Frammento
75 Classy Class
76 Hillbilly Royalty
77 Dubai Sky
78 Enchanting Lady
79 El Deal
80 West Coast Belle
81 Quality Rocks
82 Keen Ice
83 Recount
84 Shook Up
85 Abounding Legacy
86 Startup Nation
87 Devine Aida
88 Hard to Port
89 Conquest Eclipse
90 Forever Unbridled
91 Fame and Power
92 Fond of Sarah
93 March
94 She's Complete (IRE)
95 Lady Shipman
96 Lawn Ranger
97 Flashaway
98 Lost Bus
99 Silverpocketsfull
100 Imperia
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|