Who is picking against American Pharoah in the Belmont?

[letswastemoney]

I feel there is no other choice. Either pick against him, or just watch.

Logically, factoring the longer distance and fatigue, and the fact that many before have tried and failed including three other "almost" Triple Crown champions from Mr. Baffert himself, it makes sense to go against American Pharoah.

[horses4courses]

You're right.
Logical conclusions for going against AP are thin to the ground.

Apart from the fatigue factor, and the TC jinx hocus pocus,
you just can't build a strong case against this horse.

I say this mainly because the opposition has little to recommend it.

[beefas]

Why?.just hope a bomber fill's the exacta .. I hope he wins, just give me a closer at 25,30-1..take it all day , just like the preakness! To The Bank!

[Some_One]

Didn't we just get taught that a good horse at the wrong distance can produce bad results (Palace Malice). AP just has too much speed for me to think he can run a good 12f where clicking off 12 seconds furlong after furlong is what you need. Plus his dosage also is not very kind to him.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

You're right.
Logical conclusions for going against AP are thin to the ground.

Apart from the fatigue factor, and the TC jinx hocus pocus,
you just can't build a strong case against this horse.

I say this mainly because the opposition has little to recommend it.

It's not a jinx. Rather 12 furlong form is not as comparable to 10 furlong form, as maybe using 9 furlong races to predict 10 furlong winners is. Plus, I don't see why the fatigue factor should be taken lightly. It's not like any horse has done this since 1978.

From a betting standpoint, boxing the Pletcher horses and Frosted makes the most sense, although I will see when the entries come out.

[Robert Fischer]

I bet him in the Derby at $7.90 or whatever it was and bet a much as I could afford to lose (which wasn't very much), but I couldn't bet him in Baltimore.
If I was playing seriously and trying to do some long-term plan, he'd have gotten a small % of bankroll play.

He'll be a pass for me in New York as well.

I understand the desire to play the race and have a jackpot type of thing going, and I will not argue against that. Going to be a great show, and nothing wrong with having a jackpot ticket in hand while you watch.

As far as the serious horseplaying stuff goes - No I never bet against strong favorites simply because they are heavy favorites. Would have to be flaws that make the horse an underlay.

[letswastemoney]

I don't see any serious flaws with American Pharoah. There weren't any flaws with horses like Big Brown and Smarty Jones either.

It's the fatigue factor and the unknown of going 12 furlongs.

Most of their races have gradually built to going 10 furlongs for the Derby, then they switched back to 9.5. Now American Pharoah must jump 2.5 furlongs to 12, and be the only one that had to go through all three.

He is the best whether he wins or loses. There is no disputing that. But I see enough reasons to be skeptical in 3 weeks, and for that race only, before he goes and dominates later on in the summer.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

It's the fatigue factor and the unknown of going 12 furlongs.


...Now American Pharoah must jump 2.5 furlongs to 12, and be the only one that had to go through all three.

Those are two important questions to answer.


They have to be answered on an independent basis (big brown and smarty jones don't make AP 'due', nor do they make him a likely loser),
where you look at American Pharoah specifically,
and decide whether fatigue and/or 12f are problems, not a problem, or whether you don't know. Perhaps some of the same issues that foiled Smarty or Brown will apply, and perhaps they will not.

[Rex Phinney]

I'll be trying to beat him. Belmont is different. It just is.

If he proves me wrong great for racing, I won't sulk over it.

[RXB]

If I make a wager it will be on Materiality. None of the other potential entrants interest me.

[pandy]

I've gone against all of the horses that won the first two legs and lost the Belmont, except for Smarty Jones, which I reluctantly picked because the field was so weak. I'll most likely be picking against A P.

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by pandy

I've gone against all of the horses that won the first two legs and lost the Belmont, except for Smarty Jones, which I reluctantly picked because the field was so weak. I'll most likely be picking against A P.

That field was so weak it only contained the winners of the Travers, the Donn and the Santa Anita Handicap during the following year....

[minethatbird08]

I will be playing against him but rooting for him just like I did with California Chrome last year. Last year I got a little lucky and hit the Dime Super without Chrome on it.

Without looking at a form, we don't even know what the field looks like, I think Frosted and Materiality are obvious choices. I also like Keen Ice, Romans has a knack for getting horses into the tri's and supers.

[burnsy]

I will do what I've been doing since Birdstone beat Smarty. I try to get live to the Belmont Pick 3/4 with the "all" button. Since I started doing this (Birdstone) its worked very well for me including last year with Tonalist. People forget that the bomb Commissioner just missed and I could of caught yet another huge one. I have had other years with huge pay outs doing this, this is by far the flukiest of the three. Some years I've hit on horses you could not possibly like by handicapping the race. I wait all year for this move its been so good to me, especially when there's a TC attempt. The pools will be so out of skew and you can grab all the chips. We are due to get one home but that's not stopping me, these have been my biggest scores, I love Belmont day......I just don't care to be there. Its worked so well, I don't even care when one does break through but my heart won't be broken if he doesn't do it......signed on too many Belmont days not to do it. While people go on and on about chalk, I'm always trying to figure out how to win real money. Its not like I can't read but I know how the pools work...........and which tickets are actually worth having......win or lose.......

[raybo]

12 furlongs is the question for all the horses in the race. AP is the most accomplished of all, at the distances they have been running. But, 4 races in 8 weeks is a bunch, for any 3 yo.

So, I'll just watch this year and hope for a TC champ!