Just unload on the fav numbers

[boys at tosconova]

just hammer the $7-10 exacta or better yet hammer the $20-30 triple

half the field is laughably bad. the 1st two tickets you call out in any exotic will likely hit...same goes for the super as well

only have to worry about is divining rod for the triple..and he has questions surrounding him as well..+ you can save w/ him for a few bucks

chalkanova speaks..just like black elk once did.

[boys at tosconova]

triples

182
187
812
817
1/8/all
8/1/all

superfectas

1/8/2/all
1/2/8/all
2187
8127

[Rex Phinney]

Consider this.

Horses have off days we see this all the time. It's one thing if you want to pick a favorite to win. That essentially is a bet that one horse WILL NOT have a bad day. The more favorites you load up on a ticket, the better the odds that one will have a bad day and shoot you in the foot.

You're taking the likelihood that one horse has a bad day and now tripling it. This is horse racing and all three favorites are coming back in two weeks.

IMO one of them won't fire, and the guy who figures out which one is the guy going home with the $

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Consider this.

Horses have off days we see this all the time. It's one thing if you want to pick a favorite to win. That essentially is a bet that one horse WILL NOT have a bad day. The more favorites you load up on a ticket, the better the odds that one will have a bad day and shoot you in the foot.

You're taking the likelihood that one horse has a bad day and now tripling it. This is horse racing and all three favorites are coming back in two weeks.

IMO one of them won't fire, and the guy who figures out which one is the guy going home with the $

Even if one of them have an off day that one would really have to throw in a clunker to get beat by someone else. These three are vastly superior to the rest of the field. Baffert has a great record in the Preakness and he has two of them. He always gets his derby horses to run well in the Preakness. That leaves FL as the question mark of the three.

These three remind me of the Belmont with Touch Gold, Silver Charm, and Free House. They were miles better than the rest and it showed. I have a hard time seeing any of the three out of the super, at the very least. I give them an 80% chance of running 1-2-3 again.

[razorback5]

Dortmund is my throw out. I think he regresses after the last race. Will have him on the bottom of exotic tickets.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Dortmund is my key horse if he looks good in the post parade. I think the Sir Barton stakes just gave us a preview of how the Preakness may go. Considering tossing Firing Line (again), as I see his last race finish as a fluke.

[TJDave]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

Dortmund is my key horse if he looks good in the post parade.

No way I could put Dortmund on top when he and AP share the same trainer. Go ahead, someone wants to make a case of how it doesn't matter, I'll listen.

[Tom]

Firing Line will be my bet today.

But, my best tip of the day is......don't sit in front of Justin Zayat!

[boys at tosconova]

surprised to see the outcome the way it went down. the fipke horse was a reach. no doubt he could improve off of the maiden win...but not likely enough w/o other getting major help from others. he needed every bit of both FL and dorts to bounce/get messed up coupled w/ others not firing as well..i knew depending on danzig was a mistake. hard to play the 5 and feel good about winning for 2nd

dorts was the one who regressed, and that was somewhat predictable...but FL stumbled out of the gate, rushed up wide to go nowhere coupled with almost every horse to his inside leaving just enough to keep the outside horse at bay was enough to mess him up something awful.

divine ran a nice race,..and the off track and runaway winner enabled the longshit to get 2nd there. it happens..it's just hard thinking both FL and dorts would be both OTB...

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

surprised to see the outcome the way it went down. the fipke horse was a reach. no doubt he could improve off of the maiden win...but not likely enough w/o other getting major help from others. he needed every bit of both FL and dorts to bounce/get messed up coupled w/ others not firing as well..i knew depending on danzig was a mistake. hard to play the 5 and feel good about winning for 2nd

dorts was the one who regressed, and that was somewhat predictable...but FL stumbled out of the gate, rushed up wide to go nowhere coupled with almost every horse to his inside leaving just enough to keep the outside horse at bay was enough to mess him up something awful.

divine ran a nice race,..and the off track and runaway winner enabled the longshit to get 2nd there. it happens..it's just hard thinking both FL and dorts would be both OTB...

I remember some guy mentioning things like that happen. It's how you end up losing money betting an even money favorite.

I was totally shocked at the payout on the exacta and the tri, I guess I would have thought more people hit the "ALL" button with AP on top. Shocking to think we could have used an even money favorite atop a $14 exacta ALL and cashed like that.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I remember some guy mentioning things like that happen. It's how you end up losing money betting an even money favorite.

I was totally shocked at the payout on the exacta and the tri, I guess I would have thought more people hit the "ALL" button with AP on top. Shocking to think we could have used an even money favorite atop a $14 exacta ALL and cashed like that.

i pretty much called how verse could get 2nd to a blue chip reply. but only way i would have hit this is if i wheeled the 7. for 2nd/3rd. and i wasn't doing that w/o betting more than i wanted coupled w/ highly probable diminished returns..and the 7 himself had questions about him.

[f2tornado]

A 50 cent 1/ALL/ALL trifecta would have cost $21 to get back $250. Even if the chalk comes in 1-2-3 which rarely happens that race you probably still get most, if not all, of the wager back. Then throw in a $2 exacta and cash in another $130 at a cost of $14. Worse case you got back $10 with FL in second. The player could always add a larger wheel over the chalk if inclined.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i pretty much called how verse could get 2nd to a blue chip reply. but only way i would have hit this is if i wheeled the 7. for 2nd/3rd. and i wasn't doing that w/o betting more than i wanted coupled w/ highly probable diminished returns..and the 7 himself had questions about him.

Well every ticket you posted in this thread was a loser because you had the big three filling the tri in every way. My point to you was banking on three horses to fire is triple the chance you lose than betting that just one will fire.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

surprised to see the outcome the way it went down. the fipke horse was a reach. no doubt he could improve off of the maiden win...but not likely enough w/o other getting major help from others. he needed every bit of both FL and dorts to bounce/get messed up coupled w/ others not firing as well..i knew depending on danzig was a mistake. hard to play the 5 and feel good about winning for 2nd

dorts was the one who regressed, and that was somewhat predictable...but FL stumbled out of the gate, rushed up wide to go nowhere coupled with almost every horse to his inside leaving just enough to keep the outside horse at bay was enough to mess him up something awful.

divine ran a nice race,..and the off track and runaway winner enabled the longshit to get 2nd there. it happens..it's just hard thinking both FL and dorts would be both OTB...

Dortmund didn't regress. He did not like the slop. Going into the first turn I knew Dortmund was finished. Garcia in the post race interview said he didn't like the slop or the mud in his face. Some horses don't care for it, and he is one of them.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Well every ticket you posted in this thread was a loser because you had the big three filling the tri in every way. My point to you was banking on three horses to fire is triple the chance you lose than betting that just one will fire.

While you are factually correct, I am sure he was thinking the track would be fast. Two of the top three didn't like it at all. As my dad always said, "when it is sloppy, go see a show." I rarely ever bet a race if the track is sloppy. I canceled all my bets when the monsoon hit. My mistake was not betting AP to win at the last moment. Cost me some easy money.