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01-13-2015, 06:17 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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The Triple Crown Racetracks +One
After last year’s Kentucky Derby there was much discussion and the wind affecting the performance of the horses.
Therefore I decided to put the Triple Crown racetracks in a single PDF with a weather compass for each racetrack which with current data from the weather bureau at the time of the race the bettor will have the opportunity to decide how the weather affected the horses’ performance during each Triple Crown race.
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01-13-2015, 11:06 PM
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#2
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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You omitted the track buildings - wind does not blow through them.
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01-14-2015, 07:19 AM
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#3
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Slope Handicapping ™
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Mount Holly, New Jersey
Posts: 1,120
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Good stuff. But your not representing the chutes on the Belmont turf course correctly. I believe the third chute, the one nearest the finish line, is used exclusively for 1 1/16 M races on the inner turf course.
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01-14-2015, 10:35 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rise Over Run
Good stuff. But your not representing the chutes on the Belmont turf course correctly. I believe the third chute, the one nearest the finish line, is used exclusively for 1 1/16 M races on the inner turf course.
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You might be correct about the notation, but the dimensions are correct. I have checked several references and some gives it a 1-1/16m distance and others at a 1-1/8m distance.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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01-14-2015, 10:55 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,043
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
After last year’s Kentucky Derby there was much discussion and the wind affecting the performance of the horses.
Therefore I decided to put the Triple Crown racetracks in a single PDF with a weather compass for each racetrack which with current data from the weather bureau at the time of the race the bettor will have the opportunity to decide how the weather affected the horses’ performance during each Triple Crown race.
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I love your desire to dig deeper and seek out important angles my friend***** I have no doubt that wind does effect the bias at certain tracks from time to time...but to isolate the wind as a major varaible for the Triple crown races alone seems like an exercise which will not provide any real handicapping value. In those three races you are asking a group of young horses to do something they have never done before----on surfaces and distances many have never raced before. There is far too much "chaos" to isolate the wind as more important variable than training, trip, breeding, ride, distance or even what they ate the previous 24 hours.
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01-14-2015, 12:06 PM
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#6
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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It can provide valuable handicapping information if it affects the race times.
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01-14-2015, 03:15 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1st time lasix
I love your desire to dig deeper and seek out important angles my friend***** I have no doubt that wind does effect the bias at certain tracks from time to time...but to isolate the wind as a major varaible for the Triple crown races alone seems like an exercise which will not provide any real handicapping value. In those three races you are asking a group of young horses to do something they have never done before----on surfaces and distances many have never raced before. There is far too much "chaos" to isolate the wind as more important variable than training, trip, breeding, ride, distance or even what they ate the previous 24 hours.
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I appreciate and respect your comment, but you apparently misread my post.
The track layouts are supplied for a better understanding of each Triple Crown track geometry ( distance to the turns, turn size, turn radii, etc.)
My comments about the wind was inserted because of the clamor on the Forum about the wind affecting the running of last year's Derby.
If you have read many of my posts I succinctly state that in my opinion the following 4 variables: Aerodynamic Drag, Surface Wind Force, Surface Resistance, and Track Turn Geometry are the significant external retardants to a horse's speed (dirt or turf)
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Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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