Beyer on Came Home - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

karlskorner · 04-09-2002, 08:58 AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...s/beyerandrew/

Bruddah · 04-09-2002, 01:45 PM

I don't always agree with Beyer, but I sure do about this article. I may eat my words but CameHome was the class of the race and beat a group unable to go more than 8.5 furlongs. (JMHO)

Observer · 04-09-2002, 04:47 PM

For the simple fact that everyone has been against Came Home from the time Kentucky Derby 2002 began being discussed, I will be rooting for this little guy with the big heart.

It's no secret this year's group of three-year-olds are no stellar crop, so comparing this year's group to years past is pointless. The fact remains that Came Home continues to get the job done despite all the neigh-sayers prior to each of his races. Heck, even his connections haven't had much confidence in him, but they've given him the opportunity and have provided the foundation.

And who's to say that maybe Lusty Latin didn't just run the race of his life? The pace was certainly quick enough early to set up for a closer. Or, maybe he's just developing in leaps and bounds as we've seen some horses do at this time of year.

Of what we've seen, what's out there? No one has stamped themselves as the one, so to throw out a horse who has proven consistent and game, qualities many of the others lack, is going overboard. Many Derby winners in recent years have turned in sub-par efforts in their final prep.

Sure, there may be others who have run higher Beyers, but what does that really prove? Where are the arguements for a bias-aided effort by War Emblem? And when it comes time for horses like Buddha to have their hooves held to the fire, how will they hold up? And if those lightly-raced, late-developing horses prove worthy in the next two weeks of final preps, who's to say they will bounce right back for the most important test of their lives in the Derby?

Came Home is battle-tested and continues to come back fighting, even when life behind the scenes is a struggle. Let's not forget this win in the Santa Anita Derby was his first start after getting cast in his stall, which was followed by a fever. Was he really going to be set for a top effort, which should be saved for Churchill anyway??

cj · 04-09-2002, 05:27 PM

Quote:

...for a bias-aided effort by War Emblem?

Observer

Bias aided? I love when people start talking about track bias. 99% of the time there isn't one, perhaps built in track biases, but his only bias on Saturday was being the absolute dominate early speed. Races were won from the front, the middle, and way back twice, so what was the bias?

This doesn't mean I think he will win the Derby, but he is a better route horse than Came Home, IMO.

CJ

andicap · 04-09-2002, 05:56 PM

Observer,
96 Beyers don't get it done in the Derby, no matter how good it looked or how much "heart" Came Home had. Handicappers love people who fall in love with horses. I hope lots of people love Came Home.
Bet with your head, not your heart. Sure, I like the horse too from a rooting viewpoint, but if you're putting a sawbuck on a Derby nag, I agree with Beyer and look elsewhere.

justin · 04-09-2002, 08:35 PM

"It's no secret this year's group of three-year-olds are no stellar crop, so comparing this year's group to years past is pointless. The fact remains that Came Home continues to get the job done despite all the neigh-sayers prior to each of his races. Heck, even his connections haven't had much confidence in him, but they've given him the opportunity and have provided the foundation."

I'll be the first to admit that speed figures from shorter distances aren't always a good indicator of how a horse will perform at 10F. However, I do think they're highly valuable in selecting the contenders. In this regard, Came Home is severely lacking. With a 96, he would be lucky to win a good allowance race! I agree with the trainer's decision to keep stretching him out....after all, you don't know unless you try. Worked so far, but he keeps getting slower and slower as the distance increases. Not a single thing in his last two races that suggests he wants even more ground.

"And who's to say that maybe Lusty Latin didn't just run the race of his life? The pace was certainly quick enough early to set up for a closer. Or, maybe he's just developing in leaps and bounds as we've seen some horses do at this time of year."

Possible, but not likely. he simply slowed down less than the others. They absolutely CRAWLED home.

"Of what we've seen, what's out there? No one has stamped themselves as the one, so to throw out a horse who has proven consistent and game, qualities many of the others lack, is going overboard. Many Derby winners in recent years have turned in sub-par efforts in their final prep."

What about the subpar effort the race before in the San Rafael? They walked early and finished fast. Hardly anything to get excited about.

"Sure, there may be others who have run higher Beyers, but what does that really prove? Where are the arguements for a bias-aided effort by War Emblem? And when it comes time for horses like Buddha to have their hooves held to the fire, how will they hold up? And if those lightly-raced, late-developing horses prove worthy in the next two weeks of final preps, who's to say they will bounce right back for the most important test of their lives in the Derby?"

The difference here, at least in War Emblem's case is that he won't be 4-1 or less in the Derby. Agreed that the late developers may not bounce back from a big prep...but 3yos tend to run a series of improving races together. So I would much rather bet a horse who is improving in leaps and bounds than expect a sudden dramatic improvement in one of the toughest races of the year. Good luck to you in the Derby, regardless of who you end up betting

-Justin

Observer · 04-09-2002, 09:33 PM

Where did I ever say I was going to bet Came Home?? What I said was, I was going to be rooting for him. To put in simply .. IMHO, he has shown the most of any other three-year-old, while defying his detractors .. and that's something I like .. a horse that runs beyond what he's "supposed" to be doing. Thanks to those who attacked me for my desire to see a horse reach a goal everyone says he's not supposed to, and for being so concerned about my wagering dollars.

As for War Emblem .. okay, maybe bias-aided wasn't the proper term to use .. but a horse that gets a perfect, uncontested trip like that .. what's he going to take away from it? Admittedly, I don't follow Sportsman's Park, but doesn't early speed have a tendency to do well routing on that course with those sharp, hairpin turns???

And as long as we're questioning who the winners are beating up on .. who did War Emblem beat in his stroll around the track? Repent, who came out of the race with an injury and was obviously not the same horse that seemed destined for good things at one point.

Tom · 04-09-2002, 09:36 PM

I think Came Home showed some degree of competiveness in his stretch run. Whether it took all he had left out of him remains to be seen. But he did show some heart.

cj · 04-09-2002, 09:41 PM

Observer,

I certainly wasn't attacking you, I just wondered about the bias thing. Like I said, War Emblem is probably not winning the Derby either, especially since he's not running as of now. As far as SPT, 1 1/8 races don't generally favor speed, but they don't run many of them either.

CJ

p.s. Tom, that avatar is brutal!!!

justin · 04-09-2002, 09:46 PM

You're right...he didn't beat much. I will argue that he made his own good trip as evidenced by his pace figures from the race. It was uncontested because he ran fast early, which apparently didn't affect his stretch run much at all...something I always like to see. Apparently, they're not going to run him in the Derby anyway.

Bruddah · 04-09-2002, 10:25 PM

I give Came Home all the credit in the World for showing Great Heart to get by a small group of mediocre horses, unable to go more than 8.5F. If you think Came Home staggered to the wire, consider his competition's final times. Pedestrian wouldn't begin to explain those times. If U S S Tinosa had run back to his beyer for the Sham Stakes, he could have won the SA Derby. He couldn't, because he was outclassed. Otherwise he would still be on the Derby Trail. Was it heart we saw, or was it lack of competition the final 1/16th? You want to talk about War Emblem and an uncontested lead, what about an uncontested final 1/16th for Came Home. I think, doing the math for the final 1/16 will give you the answer. Additionally, and I am suprised no one has mentioned this until now, Santa Anita's surface is considered a "freeway" of a speed track. If you run slow at Santa Anita, what will happen on a deep track, with a longer stretch, going another 1/8m, against a large field of battle hardened competitors.

My final point on Came Home: Look at his PP's. He has beat nothing, in short fields, in California. The only time he met "Class", in a large field, outside of California, he spit the bit.

Strange things happen in the Ky Derby. Just look at Sea Heros win in 1993. All of the reasons I mentioned above, for not considering Came Home for the WIN in the KY Derby, will mean nothing when the gates open and they are off. (JMHO)

Observer · 04-09-2002, 11:40 PM

Came Home beat nobody? Okay, just who counts as somebody in this group of mediocre 3yos?

Also, I seem to remember Came Home making the journey out from California to win the GI Hopeful at Saratoga last summer. His test in the BC Juvenile seemed overwhelming as he was coming off an ailment with an attempt at stretching out for the first time beyond seven furlongs. By winning the Santa Anita Derby, Came Home has done something very few horses can do these days, win a Grade I at age two, and come back for another Grade I win at age three. Very few good 2yos these days come back to even make a dent in the Triple Crown preps.

Why can't I just respect this horse and hope he outruns his pedigree while proving his biggest critics wrong?

ranchwest · 04-09-2002, 11:53 PM

This may be a lousy crop of 3 yo's, but I predict that one of them will win the Ky Derby. Yes, on the first Saturday in May, they load 'em in the gates and send them on their way for 1 1/4 mi. Whether you like all of them or none of them, one of them will win.

superfecta · 04-10-2002, 12:11 AM

I wouldn't get too excited about Beyers opinion on the derby,He hasn't been exactly picking the winner every year.....on the other hand he said he picked Came Home as his Derby horse earlier this year,could be the BKOD is already in effect.

Bruddah · 04-10-2002, 02:02 AM

My initial post regarding this thread indicated I didn't always agree with Andrew Beyer. However, I do in this case because he gave sound legitimate reasons, for Came Home not winning the Ky Derby. My post was meant to add to those reasons.

Observer, please don't take my post as a personal afront or an attack on your loyalties. It was not meant to be anything more than me justifying my position on Came Home. Best of luck with your picks and the horse(s) you support. As far as proving Came Home's critics wrong, I am afraid, only the horse can do that in the Ky. Derby. Just as he has done up to now.

Bruddah