Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 06-24-2018, 11:36 AM   #76
aaron
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 1,264
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
There are always going to be a lot of subjective figures every racing day. As somebody that does so many tracks I see it all the time. The one thing I try to do is be consistent in the decisions I make. I don't base it on class of horse or trainer or anything like that. I actually limit the information I have on my worksheet for just this reason. You won't find a horse name or human connection anywhere.

A big part of how I got started making my own figures was exactly what you guys are talking about. I saw a lot of figures where I didn't agree with the numbers (not just Beyer) I was seeing for a variety of reasons. I thought I could do it better, and I'd like to think I do. Some may agree, some may not, and that is fine. That is what happens when you make subjective decisions so often.

A horse named Mossflower was the one that set me on my path to be honest. She won an allowance race and I thought the Beyer came back much too slow. I think she got a sub 100 and thought the number should be 110+.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...istry=T&rbt=TB

She ran back in a G1 stake and I thought she was the bet of the century. It turned out I wasn't far off this time. There were other times too, but that sticks out personally for a number of reasons. However, it didn't always turn out that. Sometimes I'd be the one dead wrong. I got better at it over the years and hopefully I still am improving.

That said, I don't for one second think Andy Beyer or anyone on his team has any ulterior motive for making the decisions they do. I honestly think they do the absolute best they can to put what they feel is the best number for every race in the DRF. There are always going to be figures where anybody that does what we do has a lot of confidence, and some where we don't have much. We do the best we can with the information we have. Just my two cents.
Great assessment of figures. I have used many figures and to say who has the best figures is a fools errand. All figure makers seem to be competent and do the best they can given the data available. If you laid out the figures of all the top figure makers in the industry side by side,I am sure in many cases you would have diverse opinions. The one thing to remember is that figures are part of the process. They are not the process. I have known some very successful handicappers who do not overly rely on figures.As a player, find what method you have confidence in and go from there.I remember back in the day when Marc Seigalaub and Brad Thomas were partners and they used many other tools with figures. To this day,I don't think Brad relies on figures all that much. They see horses as athletes,rather than numbers.
aaron is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-24-2018, 03:52 PM   #77
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaron View Post
Great assessment of figures. I have used many figures and to say who has the best figures is a fools errand. All figure makers seem to be competent and do the best they can given the data available. If you laid out the figures of all the top figure makers in the industry side by side,I am sure in many cases you would have diverse opinions. The one thing to remember is that figures are part of the process. They are not the process. I have known some very successful handicappers who do not overly rely on figures.As a player, find what method you have confidence in and go from there.I remember back in the day when Marc Seigalaub and Brad Thomas were partners and they used many other tools with figures. To this day,I don't think Brad relies on figures all that much. They see horses as athletes,rather than numbers.
From what I see...athletes are usually judged by their "numbers"...NO?
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-24-2018, 04:19 PM   #78
Denny
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveb View Post
if you worry about what people say, then your skin needs thickening.
it's just words from people on a web page that you will probably never meet, how can that worry you?



take what you think valid and ignore the rest.


personally i can see lots of thing wrong with beyer(book wise only, as i am not in your country), but that does not change the fact, that i would never have known time, without his books giving me the kick start.

I expect idiotic observations by people like Tom.
I can take the abuse from fools like him.

What i've learned about this site in the 8 months or so that I've contributed is about the moderator PA's shoddy behaviour.

He's a classless individual that resorts to insults, curses, and abusive responses to people who express opinions here.

Instead of challenging the responses by individuals with counter-points, he attacks them personally.

He behaves like a turd .

I expected better from him and this site.
Denny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-24-2018, 05:55 PM   #79
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
You got better than you deserved.
Quit crying like a little girl and leave already.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-24-2018, 08:29 PM   #80
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,183
Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny View Post
I expect idiotic observations by people like Tom.
I can take the abuse from fools like him.

What i've learned about this site in the 8 months or so that I've contributed is about the moderator PA's shoddy behaviour.

He's a classless individual that resorts to insults, curses, and abusive responses to people who express opinions here.

Instead of challenging the responses by individuals with counter-points, he attacks them personally.

He behaves like a turd .

I expected better from him and this site.
I can only suffer fools for so long. Your treatment, thank goodness, is a rarity. It is reserved for only the biggest fools.

Congrats. And have fun with Pricci again. Glad I could reunite you both.
__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 06-24-2018 at 08:31 PM.
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-24-2018, 09:39 PM   #81
dnlgfnk
Registered User
 
dnlgfnk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,760
It's only a curiosity for me, but I suspect the accuracy of most figures by capable outfits average out over time. I base this upon the presumption that the public is still the most expert handicapper when including every race in the data in a calendar year, e.g. Most any database of all starts, wins, pct., and odds would testify to this, unless things have changed. Their percentage of winners correspond almost identically with final odds, even at slight increments.
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
dnlgfnk is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-24-2018, 09:47 PM   #82
dnlgfnk
Registered User
 
dnlgfnk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,760
By the way, I didn't read the whole thread, but the mention of Pricci reminded me of Beyer's mentioning him as one of the new breed of trip handicappers in "My $50k Year...". Alas, like Andy, I didn't subsequently experience a consistent trip handicapping approach from John, though unlike Andy, it was years before I read John again.
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
dnlgfnk is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2018, 12:50 AM   #83
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Something to keep in mind when wondering about figures that look bogus on the surface, the data we get is far from perfect. If you trust everything you get and just go by the numbers you are going to make a lot of preposterous figures.

Here are a few things just from this week that have caused me figure making issues:
  • Fat fingered times in chart
  • Beams being tripped by something other than the lead horse
  • Track condition labels being reported erroneously
  • A race literally run at the wrong distance
  • Times put into the chart that don't match video that have no explanation
  • Hand times...many, many races hand timed
  • A new timing system put in place at one track
  • Trakus timing at some track which just isn't very accurate even when working
  • Varying run ups, even at the same distance on the same day at the same track
  • etc, etc, etc.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2018, 09:11 AM   #84
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Something to keep in mind when wondering about figures that look bogus on the surface, the data we get is far from perfect. If you trust everything you get and just go by the numbers you are going to make a lot of preposterous figures.

Here are a few things just from this week that have caused me figure making issues:
  • Fat fingered times in chart
  • Beams being tripped by something other than the lead horse
  • Track condition labels being reported erroneously
  • A race literally run at the wrong distance
  • Times put into the chart that don't match video that have no explanation
  • Hand times...many, many races hand timed
  • A new timing system put in place at one track
  • Trakus timing at some track which just isn't very accurate even when working
  • Varying run ups, even at the same distance on the same day at the same track
  • etc, etc, etc.

When I see a figure that doesn't make sense I look for anything suspicious in the conditions or race development that could account for it. Then I look at how fast the horses looked coming into the race. Eventually I monitor how they are doing coming out of the race.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2018, 10:10 AM   #85
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
When I see a figure that doesn't make sense I look for anything suspicious in the conditions or race development that could account for it. Then I look at how fast the horses looked coming into the race. Eventually I monitor how they are doing coming out of the race.
That is a different thing than what I was trying to explain. I'm saying just because Race 1 shows a time of 1:11 and Race 2 shows a 1:12, there are a multitude of reasons why the figures might not match the times that have nothing to do with subjectivity of the figure maker.

PS...I left out the tracks that have split the turf course into two, and sometimes three, different courses.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2018, 10:33 AM   #86
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
Quote:
A race literally run at the wrong distance
I bet BRIS uses the data as is and has an unleevable number for the race!

Even when the figures are as perfect as they can be, they still represent reality and reality is never perfect.

Those who have Beyer on Speed, look at his chapter on How the Figure was Earned and look at the numbers for the horses in Swale's TC races. HUGE swings due to pace. CJ will reduce that effect the way he does it, but you just can't say a horse is a 122 or a 106 or a 111.....everything has to taken in context, with the understanding that the horse's form is now as much a 2-3 months different than when it earned the fig. And who knows what the jockey will decide to do today - sometimes the stupidest thing possible.

BTW, listening to Steve Byk replay of Andy Serling from Tuesday as I post this, they are talking about CJ being driven "crazier!" with turf timing.

We all owe a debt to people like Andy Beyer and Craig Milkowski who have stepped up to the plate and pushed this big, bulky hump of a game along, and who continually keep an eye on it to protect their customers. There is no way we would be able to be playing 20-30-40 races a day at 5-6-7- tracks, over multiple surfaces is all we had was the DRF SR+TV like we used to have without speed figures.

I feel particularly fortunate that we got to follow CJ's development right here on PA and on his own PF site. Seeing all the work that goes into the process make you appreciate it all the more. When some internet troll comes along and throw around false accusations about the integrity of theses guys, I can only think he is lucky we are not in the tent at Toga.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2018, 11:04 AM   #87
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
That is a different thing than what I was trying to explain. I'm saying just because Race 1 shows a time of 1:11 and Race 2 shows a 1:12, there are a multitude of reasons why the figures might not match the times that have nothing to do with subjectivity of the figure maker.

PS...I left out the tracks that have split the turf course into two, and sometimes three, different courses.
What I do applies to both problems.

If the figure doesn't make sense to me, I often don't know if the race was mistimed, there was fat finger error involved etc... or if the figure maker just had a tough time making figures that day and I am dealing with a subjective question. All I know is that the figure doesn't make sense.

Sometimes I don't trust the figure without knowing what the reason is and sometimes I think I can explain it.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2018, 11:20 AM   #88
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
What I do applies to both problems.

If the figure doesn't make sense to me, I often don't know if the race was mistimed, there was fat finger error involved etc... or if the figure maker just had a tough time making figures that day and I am dealing with a subjective question. All I know is that the figure doesn't make sense.

Sometimes I don't trust the figure without knowing what the reason is and sometimes I think I can explain it.
True, of course for the figures I make I know the difference but customers can't see that. In the TimeformUS case we do use the coding to explain figures that were tougher than usual.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2018, 11:25 AM   #89
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Something to keep in mind when wondering about figures that look bogus on the surface, the data we get is far from perfect. If you trust everything you get and just go by the numbers you are going to make a lot of preposterous figures.

Here are a few things just from this week that have caused me figure making issues:
  • Fat fingered times in chart
  • Beams being tripped by something other than the lead horse
  • Track condition labels being reported erroneously
  • A race literally run at the wrong distance
  • Times put into the chart that don't match video that have no explanation
  • Hand times...many, many races hand timed
  • A new timing system put in place at one track
  • Trakus timing at some track which just isn't very accurate even when working
  • Varying run ups, even at the same distance on the same day at the same track
  • etc, etc, etc.
Good lord. When you inquire about things like this to tracks do they just treat you like a thorn in the side or an asshole or do they talk to you in a decent manner?
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2018, 12:02 PM   #90
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer View Post
Good lord. When you inquire about things like this to tracks do they just treat you like a thorn in the side or an asshole or do they talk to you in a decent manner?
I mostly deal with Equibase and they do the best they can to get the data fixed. I've not had much luck with tracks or racing commissions.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:06 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.