3 profound quotes on the importance of value...

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Nitro

When it comes to playing HK I do believe that the reason the 3-entry Win Dutch works so well is because of the larger fields.

well, I do have to say that I'm quite surprised although shocked might be a better word

I looked at the results from 8 races at Happy Valley on 7/10/20 - (linked) - that date just happened to come up first in my google search - and:

all 8 races were won by the top 3 in the odds and dutching all 3 would have produced more than a 50% profit

although race 4 had 2 horses listed at 5.3/1 and one won it - I counted it but it's not a sure thing - a minor detail

I'm not a naive person so I'm well aware that this is way too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions from

still, again, it was very, very surprising

a possible explanation: Asian punters are longshot lovers causing the top 3 to go off at higher odds than what would be typical in the U.S.?



https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=HV&RaceNo=4



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[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

Because the bettor is not emphasizing his stronger opinions over his other opinions. Do the horses in the bettor's quinella have an equal chance of finishing first? Then it may be no different than an exacta.

Totally agree. Clearly if your strong opinion is the higher odds horse a quinella would not be best option.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

well, I do have to say that I'm quite surprised although shocked might be a better word

I looked at the results from 8 races at Happy Valley on 7/10/20 - (linked) - that date just happened to come up first in my google search - and:

all 8 races were won by the top 3 in the odds and dutching all 3 would have produced more than a 50% profit

although race 4 had 2 horses listed at 5.3/1 and one won it - I counted it but it's not a sure thing - a minor detail

I'm not a naive person so I'm well aware that this is way too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions from

still, again, it was very, very surprising

a possible explanation: Asian punters are longshot lovers causing the top 3 to go off at higher odds than what would be typical in the U.S.?

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What percent of the races are won by one of the top 3 favorites? I would have to believe that the HK percentage is substantially lower than the US percentage.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by AndyC

What percent of the races are won by one of the top 3 favorites? I would have to believe that the HK percentage is substantially lower than the US percentage.

well, of course - what is the average field size of U.S. races - I don't think it could possibly be more than 8 - so many races with just 5 or 6

the HK average field size I would guess is at least 12

so, the odds on the top 3 are much higher and will produce much more profit

I was speculating - the only way it could be a winning system is if the top 3 as a whole was an overlay

and I think the only way that that is possible is if Asian punters are longshot lovers and therefore the odds are higher on the low price horses



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[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

well, of course - what is the average field size of U.S. races - I don't think it could possibly be more than 8 - so many races with just 5 or 6

the HK average field size I would guess is at least 12

so, the odds on the top 3 are much higher and will produce much more profit

I was speculating - the only way it could be a winning system is if the top 3 as a whole was an overlay

and I think the only way that that is possible is if Asian punters are longshot lovers and therefore the odds are higher on the low price horses



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Well then of course when analyzing the bet you would have to consider losses. If your average win profit was 50% but the win percentage was only 45% then it would be a losing proposition.

[BarchCapper]

Per the DRF's Guide to betting Hong Kong - free at:

https://www.drf.com/news/drf-s-guide...ng-kong-racing

For the 2019-20 Season

Overall:
Avg Field Size = 12.35
Winning Favorites = 29.71%

Sha Tin:
All Weather Avg Field Size = 12.40
All Weather Winning Favorites = 27.66%
Turf Avg Field Size = 12.82
Turf Winning Favorites = 32.06%

Happy Valley (only runs turf):
Avg Field Size = 11.69 (track is narrower)
Winning Favorites = 24.37%

[Half Smoke]

.........................


BarchCapper:



off the subject but anyway, I like your signature -

"”You know what they say: Nothing ventured, nothing ...ventured” - Vicki in Let It Ride"

I had forgotten about that very funny movie
one reviewer at IMDB said it didn't do well at the box office because:

"horseplayers don't go to the movies"..............(-:\


in searching for it I found this other movie about racing that I didn't know about and looks pretty funny - "The Longshot" - it's free on YT



quote from this movie:



"the horse will run like the breaking wind"..........(-:\




also, thanks for the facts about HK racing - very interesting




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