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Old 10-05-2020, 08:29 PM   #31
MJC922
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The ride in the Oaks maybe could've been better, the inside was left wide open headed to the half in almost 48 and the jock didn't want to go up and seize the opportunity deciding to sit the pocket. Of course it quickened from that point forward and the pocket then IMO is a rather significant disadvantage because then you're waiting for them to quicken first, only then can you quicken too so you're losing a step, it's a head-start most runners can't afford and many lose because of it, locked inside with the pace turning on and still trying to find a way out of there to assert your own class where you're most able to do it.

Eventually angling out was possible at the top of the stretch, and that doesn't hurt a bit when the fractions look like 46 and 112, however when it's 48 and 112 you're actually losing a step or two to even get out of the pocket, when you do finally get a clear run outside now there's some fatigue from the distance traveled and along with that fatigue you still have to lay down almost 23 flat to get up, this actually is not easy unless you're a very very strong finisher to begin with. So yea pace dynamics decides another race.

The nice thing about the Preakness was they left the inside open again while trying to logjam to the half in almost 48 but this time they didn't wait with her in the pocket, they seized the lead in 47-3 and went on with it from there. Getting a few pounds doesn't hurt while hitting the gas pedal either.
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Old 10-06-2020, 09:35 AM   #32
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The classics and major Grade 1s aren't moved on the calendar all the time.
Spalding, a "classic" is just another horse race. At any rate, even they have been moved around if you go back long enough.
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Old 10-06-2020, 09:53 AM   #33
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I'll try to find some more time this week, but keep in mind a 1:53.19 would be a 1:53 flat. That is certainly within the margin of error from video timing. Proclaiming the race Saturday as 100% faster is being silly.
I never said 100 percent. Though mathematically, if Canonero ran 1:54.00, the fastest 1:54 flat, and timing old videos is accurate, Secretariat could not have done it.

What I did say is that Secretariat was gifted a record without any proof he ran that fast. Even his fans always said he ran 1:53 2/5, not 1:53 flat. Without an accurate time, there was no basis for giving him that time. Which should mean Swiss Skydiver holds the stakes record.
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Old 10-06-2020, 09:57 AM   #34
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I want to go on record saying I'm not sure who ran faster but I'm pretty sure Secretariat and Sham both would have beaten her.
Sure, but so would lots of Preakness winners. The Bid, Affirmed, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Curlin, etc. The point is she ran the fastest recorded Preakness time, and Secretariat's "record" is fake and political.
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Old 10-06-2020, 03:37 PM   #35
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I want to go on record saying I'm not sure who ran faster but I'm pretty sure Secretariat and Sham both would have beaten her.
You're not still analyzing Big Red's Preakness performance, are you?
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Old 10-06-2020, 04:34 PM   #36
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Spalding, a "classic" is just another horse race. At any rate, even they have been moved around if you go back long enough.
By five months though? That is a big deal for a 3yo. If she did get the record it should have an asterisk. It is like saying a college student set the 100m record for high school.
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Old 10-06-2020, 05:49 PM   #37
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By five months though? That is a big deal for a 3yo. If she did get the record it should have an asterisk. It is like saying a college student set the 100m record for high school.
The Pennyslvania Derby and Hollywood Derby, among other 3 year old races, have been moved months. They still maintain stakes records. I see no need for asterisks.
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Old 10-06-2020, 09:47 PM   #38
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The Pennyslvania Derby and Hollywood Derby, among other 3 year old races, have been moved months. They still maintain stakes records. I see no need for asterisks.
Inaugurated in 1979, the first 6 Pennsylvania Derbies were run near Memorial Day. All others have been run in September or October. 4 of those first 6 were Grade 3 or listed.

When the Hollywood Derby moved from April to November in 1981 it was also moved to the turf course.
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Old 10-06-2020, 11:45 PM   #39
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The Pennyslvania Derby and Hollywood Derby, among other 3 year old races, have been moved months. They still maintain stakes records. I see no need for asterisks.
The truth is stakes records are pretty meaningless, but especially for races like the Hollywood Derby and the Pennsylvania Derby. If there are three races where I guess they have some significance it would be the Triple Crown races. It would definitely get an * in my opinion if it was from a race when the horses had a five month advantage.
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Old 10-07-2020, 08:39 AM   #40
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You're not still analyzing Big Red's Preakness performance, are you?
He's ALMOST ready to declare him a good bet in the Belmont.
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Old 10-07-2020, 11:37 AM   #41
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Inaugurated in 1979, the first 6 Pennsylvania Derbies were run near Memorial Day. All others have been run in September or October. 4 of those first 6 were Grade 3 or listed.

When the Hollywood Derby moved from April to November in 1981 it was also moved to the turf course.
Actually, Spalding, the Hollywood Derby had been run on dirt and on turf prior to 1981, and had also been run later in the year than April. So you are being extremely selective here.
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Old 10-07-2020, 03:38 PM   #42
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Actually, Spalding, the Hollywood Derby had been run on dirt and on turf prior to 1981, and had also been run later in the year than April. So you are being extremely selective here.
Even better; you're arguing the case for me.

So the Hollywood Derby has had a haphazard existence with editions on different surfaces, different distances, different racetracks, and different spots on the calendar.

Meanwhile, for nearly 100 years the Preakness has been run at the same track over the same distance and surface at roughly the same time each year.

As CJ suggested, the stakes record of the former is virtually meaningless and not a good comparison to the situation with the Preakness in 2020.
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Old 10-07-2020, 11:46 PM   #43
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Even better; you're arguing the case for me.

So the Hollywood Derby has had a haphazard existence with editions on different surfaces, different distances, different racetracks, and different spots on the calendar.

Meanwhile, for nearly 100 years the Preakness has been run at the same track over the same distance and surface at roughly the same time each year.

As CJ suggested, the stakes record of the former is virtually meaningless and not a good comparison to the situation with the Preakness in 2020.
The Preakness was run in June, not May, in 1945. Go back to 1930 and they ran it before the Derby. It's also been run at different distances if you go back far enough.
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Old 10-08-2020, 12:37 AM   #44
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The Preakness was run in June, not May, in 1945. Go back to 1930 and they ran it before the Derby. It's also been run at different distances if you go back far enough.
You're just blowing smoke and changing the goalposts, as usual.

You said that races are moved around "all the time".

I said not the classics.

Sorting through the detritus, aside from this year due to COVID, you figured out that the Preakness was moved one other time--because of World War II--in the last 90-odd years.

I have 2 maths questions:

1) Is 2 out of 90 = all the time?

2) Do 3yos undergo any kind of physical development or progression in a 5 month span between the spring and autumn (i.e., the crux of the argument)?

Feel free to use a KINESCOPE.
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Old 10-08-2020, 02:42 PM   #45
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2) Do 3yos undergo any kind of physical development or progression in a 5 month span between the spring and autumn (i.e., the crux of the argument)?

Yes, they do. A 3 yr old in May, is comparable to a college athlete. Five months later, they can be compared to a professional athlete.
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