Travis Stone doing ML at Saratoga

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Good for him. I hope 1 day he calls the SPA full time.

I like his race calling. I think he's very good at his trade.
On Derby Day, I decided to hit the mute button on the TV and watch the CD feed on my computer to hear Travis' call of the KY Derby. In my opinion he did an excellent job.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thespaah

I like his race calling. I think he's very good at his trade.
On Derby Day, I decided to hit the mute button on the TV and watch the CD feed on my computer to hear Travis' call of the KY Derby. In my opinion he did an excellent job.

I used to adore the inner track. Now, Travis Stone and John Imbriale are the only good things about the inner track (and something to do on most Sat and Sun in the winter months-when they don't cancel for 3 MPH winds).

[ronsmac]

This isn't the first time I've seen someone here complain about the morning line but it's the first time I've seen this many people so sensitive and defensive about it.

[horses4courses]

I'm giving him a thumbs up straight off the bat
for the accuracy in his line vig percentages.

I did a quick calculation on two races
and the came up 123%, and 125%.
That's just fine in my book.

For me, the Mendoza Line is 130%.
Line setters have no business going above that,
when you consider takeout on win bets is under 20%.
I have a feeling Travis Stone will do just fine at this,

There are other major tracks who should take note.

[arw629]

Ml making is a thankless job but I wish Travis the best...race 2 Friday was the only race that I feel there might be a major discrepancy... Messer Misfit has to be double digit odds imo...brisnet has the trainer 0 for 21 with 2yo's, 0 for 11 first time starters, and 0 for 5 deb msw....the filly was purchased for a measly 2.7k and Drosselymyer offsprings dont exactly scream 5.5 furlongs ..if Travis is in the ballpark with 9-2 on this one he will have nothing to prove to anyone ...also...no way the entry is anywhere near 12-1...30-1 at least!

[SG4]

Originally Posted by arw629

Ml making is a thankless job but I wish Travis the best...race 2 Friday was the only race that I feel there might be a major discrepancy... Messer Misfit has to be double digit odds imo...brisnet has the trainer 0 for 21 with 2yo's, 0 for 11 first time starters, and 0 for 5 deb msw....the filly was purchased for a measly 2.7k and Drosselymyer offsprings dont exactly scream 5.5 furlongs ..if Travis is in the ballpark with 9-2 on this one he will have nothing to prove to anyone ...also...no way the entry is anywhere near 12-1...30-1 at least!

Like most cards, I also saw some ML's on the Saratoga opening card which I was dubious of, but overall it looks like a pretty fine job. Of all the odds to nitpick at though, I think the above example is one of the most difficult & it will be curious to see how this race is bet.

Problem #1 is DRF vs Brisnet info apparently on the trainer of Messer Misfit. My DRF PP's have the trainer at a whopping 30% with FTS (sample size of 20), a far cry from the 0 for 11 in brisnet, although I do see him winless with 2yo's as well. Far as I'm concerned, there is a lot about this horse which intrigues & he's one of these classic mid-atlantic 2yo shippers to the Spa which are the hardest for me to get a read on over the years, would pay particular attention to the tote action on him.

Also the entry contains the only 2 horses in the field with experience, a key element in these races. If you get both for the price of one, might be attractive to a fair amount of people.

All that being said, I think the 2 FTS towards the outside are gonna take a lot of $ and everyone else's odds will be greatly inflated off the ML because of that, but I think it would be irresponsible of a ML maker to put those 2 at say 7-5 & 9-5 cause that's over-speculating based on the info available.

And just in case anyone cares which ML's I was most dubious of if I need to backup my earlier statements, I'm thinking in the 3rd race John Eddie will be the 2nd longest shot in the race & not near his 6-1 ML. 6th race I think La Colonel will go favored (she's 3rd choice on the ML).

Good luck to all!

[oddsmaven]

I actually wrote this post after looking at the opener and the Schuylerville...having already admitted my post to be unfairly harsh, and now after going over the rest of the card, I think the lines are mostly decent.

What I saw so differently was that in the 1st, I made Thirst for Glory the favorite rather than the fourth choice.

In the 8th, seems to me that Made Me Shiver will be stout chalk with no one close; not 5:2 over 3:1 for the rail horse who I have with less play than his 8:1 Lightning Dove.

Maybe the only other race that I see much differently is the 7th where I see Pletcher's as the 2nd or 3rd choice (not 8:1) and Bileaps and Bounds not deserving of 5:2.

It's easy to sit back and nitpick, but I felt I should say in advance what I was referring to...It's a very tough track to do lines...big fields...lots of shippers...I learned a lot reading through that Travis is not only well liked but very respected.

[1st time lasix]

Oddsmaven...thanks for clearing up. Good luck! I am going to look for a longer shot in the 5th on the inner. Using 2, 3, 4 and 6 at end of my pick five.....and start of pick six. I will need some of the others not to fire. Hope springs eternal!

[Redbullsnation]

Travis Stone is one of the best. He'll be fine doing the ML. Hopefully, he'll call a race at the Spa...

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by oddsmaven

I actually wrote this post after looking at the opener and the Schuylerville...having already admitted my post to be unfairly harsh, and now after going over the rest of the card, I think the lines are mostly decent.

What I saw so differently was that in the 1st, I made Thirst for Glory the favorite rather than the fourth choice.

In the 8th, seems to me that Made Me Shiver will be stout chalk with no one close; not 5:2 over 3:1 for the rail horse who I have with less play than his 8:1 Lightning Dove.

Maybe the only other race that I see much differently is the 7th where I see Pletcher's as the 2nd or 3rd choice (not 8:1) and Bileaps and Bounds not deserving of 5:2.

It's easy to sit back and nitpick, but I felt I should say in advance what I was referring to...It's a very tough track to do lines...big fields...lots of shippers...I learned a lot reading through that Travis is not only well liked but very respected.

Isn't this what one wants to see?

So, I don't see the need to be critical.

How did his m/l turn out versus actual?

[ronsmac]

I did notice he made Songbird 4/5 Sunday. I did a triple take when I saw that.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

I did notice he made Songbird 4/5 Sunday. I did a triple take when I saw that.

He made Flintshire the 1/5 morning line favorite. That's a realistic line. Why he didn't make Songbird 1/5 or 2/5 was a little strange.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

He made Flintshire the 1/5 morning line favorite. That's a realistic line. Why he didn't make Songbird 1/5 or 2/5 was a little strange.

Because he made a mistake. It happens. I made a few today myself. You should try it sometimes. It can be cathartic.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

He made Flintshire the 1/5 morning line favorite. That's a realistic line. Why he didn't make Songbird 1/5 or 2/5 was a little strange.

Fortunately (and unsurprisingly) it didn't dissuade the public one iota.

[VigorsTheGrey]

One thing I have noticed over the years at various tracks is that the odds of the favorite when the favorite wins are typically below the odds posted for the morning line favorite...