Orb checklist. Humbling game?

[pandy]

Orb's last quarter was 25.4. As a point of referencem in her last race, same distance and track, Zenyatta finished in :23.4.

25.4 is slow.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

This is a game that we are wrong 70% of the time.

This statement is misleading at best.

What do you mean when you say we are wrong 70%?

I have to guess that you imply that your horse is winning at a rate of 30%. If this is the case you would be wrong 70% only in the case that your original assessment represents a 100% confidence that your horse will win. Certainly this is not the case with horse handicapping were our pick is not expressing a deterministic expectation but a stochastic one, which is convenient to think about as a percentage of win.

In other words if you weight your pick with a 30% chance of winning and indeed it manages to win close to this rate then you are 100% correct and 0% wrong.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

This statement is misleading at best.

What do you mean when you say we are wrong 70%?

I have to guess that you imply that your horse is winning at a rate of 30%. If this is the case you would be wrong 70% only in the case that your original assessment represents a 100% confidence that your horse will win. Certainly this is not the case with horse handicapping were our pick is not expressing a deterministic expectation but a stochastic one, which is convenient to think about as a percentage of win.

In other words if you weight your pick with a 30% chance of winning and indeed it manages to win close to this rate then you are 100% correct and 0% wrong.

Also, you could be right more than 30% of the time, if all the races had run at a fair pace, the horse hadn't gotten injured, it hadn't had to go 4-5 wide in turns, hadn't been blocked or pinched, or boxed in, the jock hadn't lost the whip, etc., etc., etc.. There are many reasons why the best horse does not always win, even 3/5s that some figure should have been 1/5.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

Also, you could be right more than 30% of the time, if all the races had run at a fair pace, the horse hadn't gotten injured, it hadn't had to go 4-5 wide in turns, hadn't been blocked or pinched, or boxed in, the jock hadn't lost the whip, etc., etc., etc.. There are many reasons why the best horse does not always win, even 3/5s that some figure should have been 1/5 .

Like not being in the race to win it...but to instead use the race as preparation for a "future race"...when the odds figure be more "enticing"...

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

This statement is misleading at best.

What do you mean when you say we are wrong 70%?

I have to guess that you imply that your horse is winning at a rate of 30%. If this is the case you would be wrong 70% only in the case that your original assessment represents a 100% confidence that your horse will win. Certainly this is not the case with horse handicapping were our pick is not expressing a deterministic expectation but a stochastic one, which is convenient to think about as a percentage of win.

In other words if you weight your pick with a 30% chance of winning and indeed it manages to win close to this rate then you are 100% correct and 0% wrong.

I think he means that if the betting favorite loses, the public was 'wrong'. You could look at this a different way and say the public is right more times than not on who SHOULD be the favorite with all the information they have at the time. Wisdom of crowds.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by pandy

Orb's last quarter was 25.4. As a point of referencem in her last race, same distance and track, Zenyatta finished in :23.4.

25.4 is slow.

That's a weird frame of reference-- one of the greatest closers in history. Compared to Zenyatta, a lot of horses ran slow last 1/4's.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That's a weird frame of reference-- one of the greatest closers in history. Compared to Zenyatta, a lot of horses ran slow last 1/4's.

Compared to Zenyatta...ALL the horses ran slow last quarters.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I like the baseball comparisons.There are a lot of parallel realities between the two IMO.Hit Rate=Batting AVG,Cash rate=OBP.If you are a .300 hitter with an average mutual 3-1 of higher=Slugging %.Plus just like baseball you can not hit(finish 2nd) and still get the run in=make a score.I had 2 races Saturday where I finished 2nd and had the same 10% of bankroll hit as if my horse had won because I had a high place price and doped out the frontrunning tendency on Pimlico's turf to come up with 2 nice exactas.In the case of a mid level odds horse finishing 2nd like such=a sacrifice fly.I attemped an even payout on the Orb and Goldcents combinations,they were paying decent enough I thought=suicide squeeze!

[JPinMaryland]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That's a weird frame of reference-- one of the greatest closers in history. Compared to Zenyatta, a lot of horses ran slow last 1/4's.

Yeah but Zenyatta's a closer and so is Orb so I would expect them to run similar, assuming the track is the same and they are in similar running positions.

Also you are saying Zenyatta is comparable to the best males? Im not so sure.

I would think the best male 3 year olds should run a comparable to the best filly 3 year olds yes? All time great filly or not.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by JPinMaryland

Yeah but Zenyatta's a closer and so is Orb so I would expect them to run similar, assuming the track is the same and they are in similar running positions.

Also you are saying Zenyatta is comparable to the best males? Im not so sure.

I would think the best male 3 year olds should run a comparable to the best filly 3 year olds yes? All time great filly or not.

The track wasn't the same.If you were using variant adjusted 3rd fractions you could compare the two but you aren't so it's a wrong comparison.

A 3 year old male is not as mature as any older horse,let alone one of the best closers of all time of either sex,so that's a bogus comparison too.

Speaking of mature,I've heard streetwise thugs exercise more common sense than this,just not on horses.Anyway,mine was a great example since were pulling them out of our azz over here!

[JPinMaryland]

It would be helpful if you could be more specific in your comments. Namely, was he trying to compare an older Zenyatta to a 3 year old Orb. I did not realize that, but your comments are not entirely clear.

ALso what does it mean: "you could compare the two but you aren't..." I would like to compare them yes. What am I missing here.

If you could please be a little more clear, it would certainly help make your points

[pandy]

Someone asked how Orb's final quarter rated. He came home in 25.4, which is slow for a Gr1 race at that distance for any age or group. Zenyatta came home in 23.4 over the same track and distance, that would be considered fast. Simple comparison. The last quarter was one of the main reasons why I felt that Orb was being vastly overrated in the Preakness (at 3-5). My feeling was that if he was truly an outstanding horse that he would have won the Derby by a wider margin, considering the pace in front of him. For instance, take horses like Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Zenyatta for that matter, and put them in the exact same trip as Orb and I guarantee you that they crush the field by anywhere from 6 to 12 lengths because they would have been moving much faster down the stretch.

Now I know you can say that it's not fair to compare ORB to these great horses but he was bet like a great horse, 3-5 and his best fast-track Beyer was a 97.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Who ever said Orb was an outstanding horse?I didn't.I watched his evolution this year.Didn't bet him in the FOY,thought he was an underlay in the Floriday Derby and Preakness but took him in the Kentucky Derby.1 of 4 races I bet and I do like him.But I thought this site was called pace advantage and most posters understood pace.This conversation is getting IMO stupid because raw times are being used for one and two,the relationship of late speed to actual pace figures is not being taken into account at all.If a horse runs a 111 pace figure and finished in 97,it doesn't really matter what the come home time is because enough distance has been created between himself and the closers.Then next out a horse is relaxed off a more pedestrian pace and runs a bang up a solid final fraction and the same 97.Then the next race the pace figure and the late pace are in between race A and B but the final time is the best yet.This is Orb's pace cycle to the letter.Look at a horse like Verrazano,who had a strong final time in the Wood.It didn't mean $hit because it was after setting a 70 pace.The strongest finisher in this year's derby was Normandy Invasion's line in the Remsen last fall!Anyway,unadjusted late times=nothing.Unadjusted late times without the context of pace shape/figure=less than nothing.

And what the hell is going on in this thread anyway?This is a 3yr old horse that lost a race at 3/5.Any 3yo at 3/5 is a bad bet because their form cycles are so fragile.As a player these types don't do anything for your game over time.Plus why are experienced players going to great lengths like comparing this "in-the-process-of-maturing" sophomore to one of the greatest closers of alltime,who by the way lost to a mediocrity her only time on dirt?That alone proves the illusion of final fractions in the context of probable pace?And for the few that did have Oxbow,you know if I even mention I had this or that horse the day of the race I get the antiredboard crowd appearing like a genie on me instantly!Now where 6 days removed and were still getting blistering criticisms of the Derby loser in context of a redboard til the wheels come off!HAHA!Isn't this,for the seasoned player,a breach of etiquette of the highest magnitude?!

[pandy]

Cincy, you must not have followed the pre-Derby hype. On TVG, HRTV, and in the racing papers, Sports Illustrated and other publications, ORB was being talked about as a top class horse. I saw three headlines, including one from Sports Illustrated, and these are the exact headlines:

"Why Orb will win the Triple Crown." (LOL)

"Orb finishes fast to win the Derby." (He didn't finish fast.)

"Orbs dominant come from behind victory." (His victory wasn't dominant."

All incorrect and misleading. Nothing wrong with discussing this so people don't make the same mistake next time.

[JPinMaryland]

while we're on the subject of final fractions, what did people think of the Ark Derby? They kept knocking the final time which was slow, but I thought Overanalyze finished up pretty strong. Going from Downey's site, it looks like they ran a very slow fourth quarter, I dunno where Overanalyze was at that pt. in the race, But I thought he finished up decently; but a lot of people were knocking him. And what happened to Oxbow there? Just didn't run?