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Old 05-23-2013, 07:51 PM   #31
pondman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
If you think a short priced favorite can never be a good bet, you are probably wrong. If you bet against every short priced favorite in every big race, you are certainly making some long term -EV plays.
Why does that algorithm sound so strange?

If...every...every,
then certainly...in the long run.

Who is going to do that? You aren't forced at gunpoint to play the Preakness(or every big race.) Sometimes you like them base on your experience and knowledge, sometimes you don't. Sometimes you just need to buy a cocktail and watch the hats or the tails.
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Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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Old 05-23-2013, 09:17 PM   #32
dilanesp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
Why does that algorithm sound so strange?

If...every...every,
then certainly...in the long run.

Who is going to do that? You aren't forced at gunpoint to play the Preakness(or every big race.) Sometimes you like them base on your experience and knowledge, sometimes you don't. Sometimes you just need to buy a cocktail and watch the hats or the tails.
My suspicion is very few horseplayers have the discipline to pass big races. If someone wants to prove me wrong, go ahead. But that's definitely been my experience over the years.
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Old 05-23-2013, 09:20 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by pondman
By that time it's too late...

You need to collect evidence and decide whether a horse is going to run a good effort prior to a race. And you must hope other players don't see what you see.



Andrew Beyer knows the game and the limitations of his own numbers. You must also learn, know, and practice a method which avoids these limitations. And you need to know when a speed rating is suitable. If you don't there are other practices, which will take your money. Don't assume everyone, including whales, are fixating on speed ratings. In many races speed rating are a waste of time.
I don't think a speed figure is ever "a waste of time". It's information, it adjusts the final time to the speed of the track, and adjusting a horse's final time to the speed of the track is useful.

On the other hand, I do not believe, as Beyer once wrote, that speed figures are the way, the truth, and the light.

The problem I have with many speed figure critics, however, is that they overstate the case against their utility. And specifically, the fact that figure makers sometimes have to make projections based on very limited data is not really a particularly cogent objection to them. That sort of projection is no different than many of the projections made in handicapping.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:27 PM   #34
JPinMaryland
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... And specifically, the fact that figure makers sometimes have to make projections based on very limited data is not really a particularly cogent objection to them. That sort of projection is no different than many of the projections made in handicapping.
So if everyone jumps in the lake, it's ok to jump in the lake too? The problem I have with this part of your argument is that simply because speed figures have the same limitations as other methods does not make that a good thing. What other possible conclusion are you suggesting? That because speed projections are based on limited data that's a good thing? Of course its an objection against them..
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Old 05-23-2013, 11:31 PM   #35
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As for these new theories and the DRF article touting "wind" and other phrases like "common sense"... I just have to bring one simple point up:
In a 2 turn race, wind helps and hinders the horses unless the direction of the wind changes 180 degrees within 45-60 seconds.. (about the time to run half way or so?)


Here is part of my comment from the DRF page:
if you are going to talk about the "significant wind", would it so hard as to get average wind figures from that date and add them to the discussion? (http://www.drf.com/news/dick-jerardi...ugh-one-figure)
You also have to understand that wind also aids the horses when they are going around a 2 turn track.. unlike quarter horse racing, which is in one straight line...
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Old 05-23-2013, 11:53 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by iceknight
As for these new theories and the DRF article touting "wind" and other phrases like "common sense"... I just have to bring one simple point up:
In a 2 turn race, wind helps and hinders the horses unless the direction of the wind changes 180 degrees within 45-60 seconds.. (about the time to run half way or so?)
Yes, but:

1. It was a homestretch headwind; in a 1 3/16 race on a mile track the horses run down almost the entire homestretch, then complete a full circuit of the track, so they are running into the headwind twice while only catching a tailwind once.

2. A headwind slows runners more than a tailwind speeds them up. And a crosswind also slows runners slightly.
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Old 05-24-2013, 01:03 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by RXB
Yes, but:

1. It was a homestretch headwind; in a 1 3/16 race on a mile track the horses run down almost the entire homestretch, then complete a full circuit of the track, so they are running into the headwind twice while only catching a tailwind once.

2. A headwind slows runners more than a tailwind speeds them up. And a crosswind also slows runners slightly.
I could agree with the 2nd point too, as it is more dependent on how the jockey's chest area incurs opposing drag.. ...BUT, wind is too small a factor be considered here (for the 3 sec slowness). Notably because, the front running horse should have experiences the maximum wind resistance with zero drafting... but no other horse could catch him. of course, a lot other factors that were more dominant were in favor of Oxbow including race day fitness, grit etc..
My biggest gripe is not that they talk about wind, but more that if they do talk about, they could at least provide some data..

The other thing, if they accounted for wind and gave Oxbow 106, it is still too high.
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Old 05-24-2013, 01:41 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by iceknight

The other thing, if they accounted for wind and gave Oxbow 106, it is still too high.
Why? I know how to make figures and I said it should be right around 105.
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