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05-21-2013, 11:46 PM
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#76
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Orb had a lot of things going for him before the race. He was a solid favorite and he was the most likely winner. Its pretty easy after the fact to say he had no shot, its amazing to me how brave people get after the races have been run.
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????
Be careful. There are people out here who are waiting to take your money. And they won't give you any chance at theirs unless you give away value.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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05-22-2013, 12:02 AM
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#77
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by raybo
I disagree, those who have reached 30% hit rates, that don't bet the favorite all the time, are hitting only 30% because of the randomality of the game. .
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What?
Whatever you are saying-- you are wrong.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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05-22-2013, 12:26 AM
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#78
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
In a 9 horse field, it only costs 336 dollars to box the tri and eliminate Orb and it only costs 56 dollars to box the field in the exacta eliminating Orb, so, anyone who thought he was a great horse to toss, had no excuse not to have the tri and or the exacta in this race even if you had no opinion other than Orb was a great 3-5 shot to beat.
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There is no absolute certainty.
A $336 single on Orb paid $5,510.40. I went that way because it would have been a real bitch if Orb would have shown.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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05-22-2013, 12:28 AM
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#79
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pondman
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What?
Whatever you are saying-- you are wrong.
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Ok, whatever you say.
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05-22-2013, 01:31 AM
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#80
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 2,636
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serious horse talk from the professionals...
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05-22-2013, 01:42 AM
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#81
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Sometimes it's hard to tell whether you are kidding or not.
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Was my math wrong?
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05-22-2013, 01:48 AM
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#82
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Was my math wrong?
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No...but your thinking was.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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05-22-2013, 12:44 PM
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#83
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JPinMaryland
serious horse talk from the professionals...
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I refuse to banter with someone who admits he doesn't understand what I said, but then says that whatever I meant is wrong.
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05-22-2013, 12:47 PM
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#84
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
No...but your thinking was.
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Yup!! But, with thinking like that, we have proof that there is still plenty of money to be made in this game.
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05-22-2013, 01:03 PM
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#85
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 2,636
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
In a year of full-time play, spanning all the tracks in the country, I would hazard to guess that you can count on the fingers of one hand the horses who deserve to be bet at odds of 3/5 in a 9-horse field...especially at a strange distance. And I think I might be generous here....
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We all respect your vast handicapping knowledge. Can you tell me of any objective way you would have of proving which horses were deserved 3-5 favorites?
I for one, would love to know your system. 
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05-22-2013, 01:18 PM
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#86
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JPinMaryland
We all respect your vast handicapping knowledge. Can you tell me of any objective way you would have of proving which horses were deserved 3-5 favorites?
I for one, would love to know your system. |
He probably never, ever, bets a 3/5 horse to win. I certainly wouldn't, unless perhaps, he would have to break his leg in order to lose, meaning he's a grade 1 horse running in a $2500 claimer. There aren't many match races anymore so that possibility is out too.
Just consider what the 3/5 odds are saying about the "supposed" probability of the horse winning. That should tell you that NO 3/5 is worth a win bet, because we all know, or at least most of us know, anything can happen in the running of a race.
Last edited by raybo; 05-22-2013 at 01:19 PM.
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05-22-2013, 01:32 PM
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#87
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by raybo
Al, you're reading things into my post that weren't stated, I said nothing about "random" selections, I said "randomality" (of the game), period. If a player, regardless of his method, hits 30% of his bets at 5/2 or higher, then he is well above the herd, and his 70% loss rate would be much less if it weren't for the inherent "randomality" that is in horse racing.
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Thanks for clearing that up.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-22-2013, 01:43 PM
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#88
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Thanks for clearing that up.
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Anytime, if people don't understand what I've posted, and say that, I am always willing to restate it in a more understandable way, if I possibly can. But, when someone doesn't understand what I've said and goes on to say I'm wrong, then they go quickly to my "X-off" list. There are several people here already on that list, as you can probably imagine.
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05-22-2013, 03:05 PM
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#89
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 2,636
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by raybo
That should tell you that NO 3/5 is worth a win bet, because we all know, or at least most of us know, anything can happen...
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You have no way of proving a 3/5 bet is a losing proposition, either.
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05-22-2013, 03:11 PM
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#90
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JPinMaryland
We all respect your vast handicapping knowledge. Can you tell me of any objective way you would have of proving which horses were deserved 3-5 favorites?
I for one, would love to know your system. |
I was responding to Dilanesp...who had suggested that not all 3/5 shots are bad bets...and that "betting on a 3/5 shot is the same as betting on a 10/1 shot".
I would never consider betting on a 3/5 shot to win...but some people are different. They actually think that there is value to be found in all odds groups...and who am I to disagree with them...especially when we are all entitled to our opinions?
Is there value to be found in a 3/5 shot? I suppose...if a Secretariat or a Zenyatta were to make a return appearance -- but that's not how I like to play this game.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 05-22-2013 at 03:12 PM.
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