Oxbow

[forced89]

I made good money betting on Oxbow. Not because I am brilliant but because I thought he had a decent chance and liked his odds. I watched him in person at Oaklawn where I thought he ran really well despite being very unlucky in the Post Position draws. I also though he ran great in the Kentucky Derby considering the suicidal pace.

[RXB]

Oxbow's a different horse when he can dictate the pace. When he's rated off the pace he's too tense and it costs him in the latter stages.

[Valuist]

Oxbow had a number of difficult trips where he still ran well. The only thing that kept me off him was his dull race in his last dry track race, the Ark Derby.

But while we can praise Oxbow's pre-Preakness efforts for being better than they looked on paper, he finally got his perfect trip. So who was the best horse in the Preakness? A horse I loathed coming into the race: Mylute. He clearly was the best closer against the very slow pace.

[JPinMaryland]

the problem with Mylute in my opinion is he does not want to pass horses. He had the best or one of the best final fractions in the derby and again yesterday. He can run as fast any of them but he only wants to do this when he's chasing a horse, he doesn't seem to want to push past any horse alongside him. I don't want to sound red boarding, I pointed this out last week as well. Some want to blame Rosie but I don't see it that way at all, this horse seems like he hangs.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by JPinMaryland

the problem with Mylute in my opinion is he does not want to pass horses. He had the best or one of the best final fractions in the derby and again yesterday. He can run as fast any of them but he only wants to do this when he's chasing a horse, he doesn't seem to want to push past any horse alongside him. I don't want to sound red boarding, I pointed this out last week as well. Some want to blame Rosie but I don't see it that way at all, this horse seems like he hangs.

It was a problem in the Louisiana Derby although he was hanging against a dead game horse who knows how to find the wire (remember Revolutionary's traffic filled win over the inner dirt?). His last win was by 10 so he wasn't eyeballed in the stretch. But I can't fault him for not getting up to win on Saturday. Under the circumstances it was nearly impossible for him to spot Oxbow that much ground and that slow a pace and get up to win. I wasn't a fan of the horse going into the race but I came away very impressed with Mylute.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by forced89

I made good money betting on Oxbow. Not because I am brilliant but because I thought he had a decent chance and liked his

These are the moments horse player live for. You don't have to feel guilty for taking people's money. I had a moderately heavy bet on both oxbow and Mylute. I bought my wife three shades of tourmaline (mined in San Bernadino) for 2 grand. If Rosie would have gotten 2 more feet, my wife would have gotten an electric car. Enjoy it. And live to crush the crowd.

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by pondman

These are the moments horse player live for. You don't have to feel guilty for taking people's money. I had a moderately heavy bet on both oxbow and Mylute. I bought my wife three shades of tourmaline (mined in San Bernadino) for 2 grand. If Rosie would have gotten 2 more feet, my wife would have gotten an electric car. Enjoy it. And live to crush the crowd.

Yeah, I would have made good if Mylute had won, but I am glad Oxbow won (happy for him), as the horse kept trailing off after going to the lead (or his win margin reduced) in several races. I sincerely thought (before the race). Mylute or Orb would close off and win..

But, off topic question, what are "three shades of tourmaline"? Are you talking pendants, ring stone or earrings here?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Under the circumstances it was nearly impossible for (Mylute) to spot Oxbow that much ground and that slow a pace and get up to win. I wasn't a fan of the horse going into the race but I came away very impressed with Mylute.

agreed.

[RXB]

I wouldn't make too much of Mylute's performance. That was not a frontrunners' track on Saturday.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by RXB

That was not a frontrunners' track on Saturday.

Not sure we can draw that conclusion at all. Only three sprint races on the card, one was won wire to wire by Zee Bros, another winner (Sage Valley) was up close tracking two longshots. The third was a 5 furlong race where the 2-5 favorite sat 2nd and got beat. Pace is usually a bigger factor in routes anyways. Pace, not bias, was the key factor in the Preakness.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Not sure we can draw that conclusion at all. Only three sprint races on the card, one was won wire to wire by Zee Bros, another winner (Sage Valley) was up close tracking two longshots. The third was a 5 furlong race where the 2-5 favorite sat 2nd and got beat. Pace is usually a bigger factor in routes anyways. Pace, not bias, was the key factor in the Preakness.

Sage Valley wasn't up close; he was still 4.5 lengths behind the leader at the 1/8th pole.

My real point is that the pace wasn't as soft as the nominal fractions might suggest. Away from the rail and not too fast early were the trip and energy expenditure ideals for the day. Oxbow managed to accomplish each despite being on the lead, but it's not as though Mylute's wide rally came on a day where that was against the grain of success.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by RXB

Sage Valley wasn't up close; he was still 4.5 lengths behind the leader at the 1/8th pole.

My real point is that the pace wasn't as soft as the nominal fractions might suggest. Away from the rail and not too fast early were the trip and energy expenditure ideals for the day. Oxbow managed to accomplish each despite being on the lead, but it's not as though Mylute's wide rally came on a day where that was against the grain of success.

Whoops; I confused Sage Valley with Debt Ceiling. Ignore that part.

[Robert Fischer]

Have to give Oxbow some credit.

Stevens has looked like he is "in the zone" in both the Derby ride and Preakness ride on Oxbow. He reminded me of some of his better 6.5 downhill turf rides, almost like riding the perfect line.

However, Oxbow is solid horse with early speed, who allowed Stevens to go fairly quickly from the gate and then begin slowing down the pace once into the 1st turn.

Once horse and rider went from a brisk start to simply a 'cruise' the race was over.

During that brisk start, Orb was forced to set up off the pace, and(without the benefit of hindsight) it would have been ill-advised for Rosario to move up the rail out of the gate inside of Goldencents.

But once Oxbow slowed to a cruise into the 1st turn, Orb was locked into a bad position. Rosario realized and tried to get closer, but it was too much adversity.

Mylute had a very clean trip in comparison with Orb, but ran well and was arguably best in the Preakness.

[MNslappy]

After the race Stevens told the NBC reporter that he knew that race was over at the half mile mark.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Have to give Oxbow some credit.

Stevens has looked like he is "in the zone" in both the Derby ride and Preakness ride on Oxbow. He reminded me of some of his better 6.5 downhill turf rides, almost like riding the perfect line.

However, Oxbow is solid horse with early speed, who allowed Stevens to go fairly quickly from the gate and then begin slowing down the pace once into the 1st turn.

Once horse and rider went from a brisk start to simply a 'cruise' the race was over.

During that brisk start, Orb was forced to set up off the pace, and(without the benefit of hindsight) it would have been ill-advised for Rosario to move up the rail out of the gate inside of Goldencents.

But once Oxbow slowed to a cruise into the 1st turn, Orb was locked into a bad position. Rosario realized and tried to get closer, but it was an impossible task.

Mylute had a very clean trip in comparison with Orb, but ran well and was arguably best in the Preakness.

I agree with most of this; I'm just hesitant to be particularly effusive about Mylute's performance. He gave it a good effort but I don't think he ran any better than the top two.