Workouts in handicapping - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

jasperson · 08-03-2011, 02:29 PM

Except for maiden races and horses coming off a lay off I ignore workouts in my handicapping. This is because I rarely see a meaningful workout for the older horses. Thinking that I might be missing a good handicapping angle I printed out the date of the last workouts for all non maiden races at sar,crc,rdx and Fl. Only 3 horses had a workout in the last 30 days from their last race. The older pundits use to say don't bet a horse that hasn't race in more than 15 days with out a workout. Things have certainly changed now. That would eliminate almost all horses from betting. What is your opinion on workouts for older claimers?

DJofSD · 08-03-2011, 02:40 PM

Does meaningful mean at least a certain distance?

The question is both serious and leading. One thing you have to remember: what is published as a work out does not necessarily tell you what happened after the horse and jockey pass the finish line nor where they are on the track.

There are so many details that almost make work outs meaningless.

For myself, the most important thing about published works is the number since the last race, the regularity and spacing of the works.

pondman · 08-03-2011, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasperson

What is your opinion on workouts for older claimers?

I do have a successful play, which requires at least one work on the track. I want to see how long in weeks the horse has been around the track. But it doesn't involve older claimers. I personally don't have any play for races with older claimers--it's just not my focus.

jasperson · 08-03-2011, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJofSD

Does meaningful mean at least a certain distance?

.

What I mean is a work that is timed by the clocker. So it shows the horse is healthy enough to work. If the horse is coming off a layoff like Uncle Mo I am interested the workout pattern, times and distances.

Bruddah · 08-03-2011, 04:41 PM

I don't consider workouts in the Hot Summer months. To me they are useless and not indicative of a horse's true ability during these months. (JMHO)

Tom · 08-03-2011, 07:54 PM

The HTR work out ratings are among the best there are at enhancing other positive factors.

Here is a sample of the last 100 races at Monmouth and Finger Lakes this July, with pace and speed ratings for the same races as comparison.

WK =1 workout rating =1
WK =2 workout rating =2
Ped =1 pedigree rating =1 ( another non-speed pace velocity rating)
Pac =1 pace rating =1
Per =1 performance (speed) rating =1

No other factors or filters. Even at FL, where works are not as frequent, the top 2 almost break even.

Broad Brush · 08-03-2011, 08:03 PM

Workouts taken by themselves usually don't mean much unless a horse
who is a slow worker shows up with a fast one.

However, workouts are hugely valuable if you study the patterns of trainers.
They all have certain things they do that tell you wether a horse is set on "go"
or is just getting a race.

I know this is involved and takes time to learn, but I can tell you most of the
habits of trainers at the NYRA tracks. This gives me a big edge in knowing
who the "live" horses are in most races other than maiden races.

Shemp Howard · 08-03-2011, 08:18 PM

The good 5f work has always been an angle worth following.

turninforhome10 · 08-04-2011, 12:23 AM

I have been having success analyzing works by looking for those horse who's second to last work is a lengthy one and then come back within a week to ten days for a blowout. Something like this

29Jly Sar 4f ft :48© B 3/32
18Jly Sar 4f ft :47© Hg 1/33
30Jun SA 6f ft 1:14¨ H 9/9
22Jun SA 5f ft 1:02« H 24/27
A sharp blowout after a lengthy work indicates fitness. We always used to use a 3 furlong drill 3 or 4 days before a race to put some air into them after they were fit and legged up.

jasperson · 08-04-2011, 05:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

I have been having success analyzing works by looking for those horse who's second to last work is a lengthy one and then come back within a week to ten days for a blowout. Something like this

29Jly Sar 4f ft :48© B 3/32
18Jly Sar 4f ft :47© Hg 1/33
30Jun SA 6f ft 1:14¨ H 9/9
22Jun SA 5f ft 1:02« H 24/27
A sharp blowout after a lengthy work indicates fitness. We always used to use a 3 furlong drill 3 or 4 days before a race to put some air into them after they were fit and legged up.

Divine Fortune fits this catagory in 1st at Sar.

DigitalDownsJoe · 08-04-2011, 09:50 AM

I think it is also important when a horse ships to a new track, especially if the new track is a different surface. Maidens its alittle important, but i tend to lean more towards trends, trainers, and jockeys in maiden races.

pondman · 08-04-2011, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DigitalDownsJoe

I think it is also important when a horse ships to a new track, especially if the new track is a different surface.

Hope everyone reads this. You've observe one of the gems of racing. If you continue to study the conditions of a race, and have money management, and can sit out and wait, there is no reason you can't make 200 K a year on very little money.

I'd recommend you focus specifically on conditions for a couple years. Because trainers enter horses for a reason. You could turn it into your own personal piggy bank. It's really easy to have your money on a 40-1 shot, coming off a year layoff, and dropping from a restricted maiden to a m8000-- looking horrible, been beat by 25 lengths.

There is a good explaination for your statement. Horses are congenial. I think it takes awhile for them to get over being shipped-- changing barns and feed. In the meantime someone is putting money into the horse. Therefore, the connections like to get a win the first time out, while the crowds sits stund saying," What the heck was that".

turninforhome10 · 08-04-2011, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasperson

Divine Fortune fits this catagory in 1st at Sar.

Never really applied this to steeplechase as I don't bet em This is the line for Angel Divine in the 3rd

Shemp Howard · 08-04-2011, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

I have been having success analyzing works by looking for those horse who's second to last work is a lengthy one and then come back within a week to ten days for a blowout. Something like this

29Jly Sar 4f ft :48© B 3/32
18Jly Sar 4f ft :47© Hg 1/33
30Jun SA 6f ft 1:14¨ H 9/9
22Jun SA 5f ft 1:02« H 24/27
A sharp blowout after a lengthy work indicates fitness. We always used to use a 3 furlong drill 3 or 4 days before a race to put some air into them after they were fit and legged up.

I don't know if anyone remebers Glen Hild. He always blew o0ut his well meant horses 3f the day before the race. Sometimes it didn't make the DRF. Before computers,when it was thy\e Daily Telegraph you had to check the w/o tab to check these well meant steeds. Caught many double digit winners that way.

Robert Fischer · 08-05-2011, 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasperson

because I rarely see a meaningful workout for the older horses

hey jasperson i hear you...

~~

SUN TZU

~~
"Without constant practice, horse will be nervous and undecided
when mustering for battle!!!..."

SO wise rail bird say...
old "war horse"
run regularly,
walk hotz,
and get out for 2-minute lick...

Those "workouts" rarely get clocked to make the "TAB"

a 2 MINUTE LICK is jogging @ 15second(about, hence the name, but nickname can cover any moderate steady conditioning drill) furlongs for 8F or 1mile.
Ever see a 5F IN 1:12 or a 6F in 1:20s?, not too often... once in a blue...

ALTHOUGH that bit of "CONSTANT PRACTICE"

, is plenty to keep that old gelding in good working orda.

HERES THA KICKA! -
-WHAT IF???????????????????????????????????
He's gone a little bit lame????????????????????????????...,
and the last two weeks he hasn't gotten out for any 2-minutemoves??

-unfortunately WE THE PLAYER ARE KEPT IN THE DARK