Jockey Changes

[Robert Goren]

After getting no run out a horse at AQU , I was wonder how everyone feels about jockey changes announced the day of race. At first glance it doesn't appear to be a good sign, but I have no numbers to back that up.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

After getting no run out a horse at AQU , I was wonder how everyone feels about jockey changes announced the day of race. At first glance it doesn't appear to be a good sign, but I have no numbers to back that up.

My goodness if you do not know WHY it makes no sense to even consider it. You have no first hand notion as to what happens to many of these guys who exercise in the AM. They could be simply sore from being thrown (one of the most common late jock changes I have seen over the years) flu, head ache.....all having NOTHING to do with any clandestine or nefarious manipulation.

You guys have seen too many movies and need to come to the racing office and see what really goes on there.

[Robert Goren]

I know all that. But still they don't seem to win very often.

[Brogan]

zilzal has it right. Unless you know the specific reason for the change, it doesn't mean a thing. Even when you know the specific reason, most of the time it still doesn't mean a thing.

[tzipi]

I used to make a nice buck couple years back because R.Dutrow used to have a top name jock on his horses and he would call a jockey change and put Rudy Rodriquez on them and everybody used to grumble and toss the horse. I figured Dutrow did it to get the better price because they won so many times. Horse would be like 3-1 with top jock and then jockey change would be annouced during the day with Rudy Rod on and you got 5-1 or 6-1 and the horses would win so many times. Even with 9-5 ML you'd get like 3-1.

By the way R. Rodriquez is 2-2 at the outter track Aqueduct meet as a trainer now.

[acorn54]

my research shows that with few exceptions jockeys are pretty much the same. the horse is the thing. a jockey of inferior talent doesn't stay very long as a jockey.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by acorn54

my research shows that with few exceptions jockeys are pretty much the same. the horse is the thing. a jockey of inferior talent doesn't stay very long as a jockey.

Jockeys are pretty much the same?
Where are you researching? Venus or Mars?
Obviously the horse is the most important component.
But a negative jockey switch is a must consideration in my handicapping.
There are inferior riders at every major oval who have been there for years.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by acorn54

my research shows that with few exceptions jockeys are pretty much the same. the horse is the thing. a jockey of inferior talent doesn't stay very long as a jockey.

I would be interested to see the research you are referring to....I think there is a huge difference from jockey to jockey and that they make a big difference on horses for a variety of reasons....as far as inferior jockeys not lasting long, I can mention quite a few who arent any good but still ride.

[acorn54]

yes your belief is what most bettors believe, as is proven by my research
it is true that the top jockeys win more frequently, but the catch is that they are overbet. whereas the less popular jockeys win less often but are underbet.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by acorn54

yes your belief is what most bettors believe, as is proven by my research
it is true that the top jockeys win more frequently, but the catch is that they are overbet. whereas the less popular jockeys win less often but are underbet.

That's a huge side step from saying "they're pretty much the same."

We're not talking betting, or betting odds, we're talking jockeys.

[acorn54]

well i don't really think it is a side step. the minor jockeys are competent enough to bring home the horses that look inferior on paper, thats all. i think if the minor jockeys got there fair share of the live mounts they would move up in the jockey standings at a meet. the trainers are not stupid, they are not going to let an inferior rider ride there horse in a race where it has a good shot to win the race.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by acorn54

my research shows that with few exceptions jockeys are pretty much the same. the horse is the thing. a jockey of inferior talent doesn't stay very long as a jockey.

Agreed...Only a very very few can move up a horse much as I see Ramon Dominguez do about every 5th time....The rest of the overbet times, the horse was much the best anyway

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by acorn54

yes your belief is what most bettors believe, as is proven by my research
it is true that the top jockeys win more frequently, but the catch is that they are overbet. whereas the less popular jockeys win less often but are underbet.

Actually, I was talking from a betting and ownership perspective....your initial post didnt make any reference to betting, just a general thought that jocks are the same and that bad ones dont last, which I believe are both not true....

[lamboguy]

my guess on this subject would be if the jockey is in the building and decides to get off the horse, then the change tends to be a negetive. if he was in the place and the race in one of the last ones that would still be a negetive but not as bad as if it was in the middle of the card. in charlestown and mountaineer you have riders that get off the horses at the gate. out of about 500 incidents like that i think i might have seen 1 horse win out of the 500

[racefinder2]

I was wondering if the Rodriguez jockey youre talking about(for Dutrow)is the same one who was the listed trainer - I believe as 'Juan R Rodriguez' - when Dutrow was on suspension in the past?

T.I.A.