Getting Price Slammed in "Paradise"......

[Vinman]

One of the obvious benefits of betting Doubles and Exactas is being able to adjust your bets according to the very latest "will pays" and put your bets in as close to post time as possible. Sometimes you have to settle for "a little less" because of the proverbial "smart" money that is wagered at the bell. The resulting final prices aren't known until the horses cross the wire. We've all seen it....all been burned by it.

As of today, I'm crossing Turf Paradise and tracks with similar sized DD & exacta pools off my list of "playable tracks" after experiencing "THEE" most "head spinning" last minute "price slam" I've ever seen in almost 40 years of going to the track.

I'm spreading just over $100 among 12 Daily Double combos at TuP for the Race 8/9 Daily Double, with a final pool of $9,414. I'm using a Tiny Tim to place my bets, which I'm basing on a "dutching spreadsheet" I put together on Excel.

I'm playing the 3,4,5,10 in the 8th with the 2,4,9 in race 9. The 10 was the even money fave in the 8th and simply didn't have it. I figure I'm dead until my 5 gets up at the wire....at 9/2.

Now, based on the will-pays with about 2 minutes to post, the DD's 5-2, 5-4 and 5-9 were paying $127, $357 and $274. Based on those prices, I made wagers of $3, $2 and $2 on those combos out of a total investment of $108. My largest bet among my 12 combos was $45 on the 10-2, which was paying $12.

After the 2 won the 9th at 6/5, I again checked the now final will-pays with the 5/2,4,9 on the Philly Phone Bet DD screen on my laptop and saw that, incredibly, my 3 "live" DD's were now worth.....get this.....$36, $81 and $98, representing declines of 72%, 77% and 64% in the closing minutes from the prices previously noted.

For you BRIS Ultimate PP fans out there, the winning horse in race 8, Lomard, did not have a "Prime Power" ranking. In 10 years of using BRIS Ultimates, I've NEVER seen a horse with U.S.A track pp's without a Prime Power figure....ever.

Lomard "distinguished" himself in this 6 furlong 3K claiming event with three races at the 2,000 to 2,500 level at "Yav", Flg" and "Yav" on 6/7, 7/3 and 8/11 following the last of his most recent TuP races on 4/20. Apparently, being eased versus 2,500 competition 143 days ago was not an obstacle to the winner's circle today for this 12-1 morning liner.

I don't want to bother calculating how much of a "punch" these DD combos took in the closing minutes, but with a pool of over $9,400, it had to be substantial. I'd be willing to bet that the parties who benefited were not concerned about Lomard's missing Prime Power rating.

Lesson learned....Bet cheap claimers in small betting pools at your own peril.

Back to the two horse exotic pools at the Big A for the Vinman

[therussmeister]

My bet of choice is usually the trifecta: My general standards are I like the pools to be at least $35,000. Although you get no will-pays with trifectas, it is still easier to predict a payoff range with pools this size.

[Vinman]

I normally prefer Pick 4's at the 50 cent level.

[Ian Meyers]

I didn't play the race and don't dispute the premise about the perils of betting into small pools. But the 8th race winner had a speed figure two starts back nearly as good as anything else had run and 4 starts back his figure was better than an anything had run in their past five or six. The 12-1 ML on a horse that had faced better at TuP in April and had won in this condition (30001Y) the last time he raced there was too high.

It still sucks though when you get whipsawed like that.

[levinmpa]

Originally Posted by Vinman

Now, based on the will-pays with about 2 minutes to post, the DD's 5-2, 5-4 and 5-9 were paying $127, $357 and $274.

Where did you see the will pays displayed? Was it on the live screen from Turf Paradise or did you see it on the Phonebet screen? I'm only asking because I have noticed occassionaly the Phonebet screen does not get updated. The MTP gets updated, but not the pool information. If you did see it the Phonebet screen, did you happen to see the Pool size at 2 MTP?

[Stillriledup]

Were the prices you originally saw 'reasonable'? The winner of the first leg was a 9-2 and the horses you were alive with were 6-5, 4-1 and 4-1. It doesn't seem unreasonable that those other doubles with two "4-1 shots" were paying 80 or 90...those seem like great prices with tremendous value.

A parlay of two 4-1 shots pays 50 bucks, those were paying almost double that.

You were actually expecting to get 357 dollars for a parlay of two 9-2 shots?

[Vinman]

I was following the Phonebet screen for the DD will pays. Not sure what pool totals were at 2 MTP but I'll guess it was "miniscule" compared to the $9,414 total.

Bottom line is....I had the horse in my DD mix despite his suspect record....and still lost big, recovering exactly half of my $108 wager.

Vinman (studying the AQU pp's in "Favorites" as we speak : )

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

You were actually expecting to get 357 dollars for a parlay of two 9-2 shots?

Yes he was.

[Vinman]

No, I was not expecting a $357 return for a pair of 9/2 shots. I also was not expecting the "actual" winning DD price to drop by over 70% in the last 2 minutes of wagering. That is why I posted the story.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Vinman

No, I was not expecting a $357 return for a pair of 9/2 shots. I also was not expecting the "actual" winning DD price to drop by over 70% in the last 2 minutes of wagering. That is why I posted the story.

But the drop doesn't matter if it was dropping from an unrealistic price, its your fault for getting your hopes up on something that had very little shot to stay the way it was. 80 bucks for a pair of 9-2 shots is decent value.

[levinmpa]

Originally Posted by Vinman

I was following the Phonebet screen for the DD will pays. Not sure what pool totals were at 2 MTP but I'll guess it was "miniscule" compared to the $9,414 total.

Bottom line is....I had the horse in my DD mix despite his suspect record....and still lost big, recovering exactly half of my $108 wager.

Vinman (studying the AQU pp's in "Favorites" as we speak : )

My guess is that the Phonebet pools and will pays screen for Tup was not updating. Be careful and check the pool size. I've seen this happen numerous times. Sometimes I'll open another tab in my browser to the the BRIS Supertote just for comparison purposes.

[garyscpa]

Speaking of updating the will pays, I've seen several tracks that sometimes forget to update the will pays and show you yesterday's will pays. Sometimes they are not paying attention too close.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Vinman

No, I was not expecting a $357 return for a pair of 9/2 shots. I also was not expecting the "actual" winning DD price to drop by over 70% in the last 2 minutes of wagering. That is why I posted the story.

The pools were small, the prices were way higher than they "should" have been, and a large percentage of money gets bet in the last two minutes. Nothing unusual here.

[racefinder2]

Ditto....

I (heart) major tracks......