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Old 02-18-2008, 06:10 PM   #1
theratpac
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$30.00 winner starts off S.A. Pick 6

I guess that eliminated the most of the smaller tickets, like $100- $1,000.
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Old 02-18-2008, 06:20 PM   #2
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I actually had that one. if you throw out the last race on tepeta, he has won has last two races in a row in this class on turf no less. no way in hell gula gold shoul dhave been 15 to 1.

it's the next 2 races i'm worried aobut
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Old 02-19-2008, 02:13 AM   #3
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1st leg winner

She was the fastest horse in the last 365 days (back speed) and she also was the fastest late pace or closer in this turf race(based on the 2nd and 3rd race back). The last race she ran was on dirt so it was a throw out race. She is the fastest horse to accelerate and run where it counts (late pace).

She should have paid $5.20 to win
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Old 02-19-2008, 07:00 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MAGICHORSEMAN
She should have paid $5.20 to win
Oh, please...
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:12 AM   #5
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I don't think Magic is too far off. That horse was in the perfect spot. He had the best numbers for that spot etc.

Both programs I use chose the horse and he matched up very well on all counts as far as I could tell.

Jerry Hollendorfer I like when he goes south, he doesn't get the respect he should. I was salivating at the odds and in fact emptied my account in the last few seconds loading up on the horse to win. I can't recall doing that before........of course it was only a couple hundred bucks.......but I don't normally do that.
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:59 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by JustRalph
Both programs I use chose the horse
I don't know what the other one is, but since JCapper is based on >hidden< value, you can't say this horse should've been 8/5 (in an 11 horse field, no less). And from a purely mathematical perspective, I would hope that most people would agree that if you think you have a 500% edge, there must be something wrong with your oddsline.
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Old 02-19-2008, 11:23 AM   #7
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I thought medjoo was the pick of the day, Ca derby horse running against an ok field. I hope the person who hit it can explain the 33-1 shot in the 10th I had 5 live tix 4-5 hoping the 2,3 or 9 would win and I would get 5-6 and a 4k payoff!
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Old 02-19-2008, 01:30 PM   #8
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easy choice in the 10 race at SA monday in pick 6

What is the most important element in picking a winner in a turf race?
His late pace figures. The one and two in the race were the 1st and 2nd fastest late pace horses in the race( in that order) and they came in 1st and 2nd!!!!

The one and two had the best workouts 59 and change. Both horses came in 1st and 2nd. It was a surprise to most. Workouts are an indication of sharpness!!!

The 1 horse also ran allowance races the 2nd and 3rd race back. He was back into claiming races on Monday. So he was an easy choice to add to the horizonal picks.
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Old 02-19-2008, 01:36 PM   #9
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I'm not saying the horse wasn't gettable; as has been said already, several programs would have led you right to it. But no one in their right mind would have pegged this horse at 8/5. Redboards are annoying enough without further embellishing it by telling us a $30 horse should've paid $5.
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Old 02-19-2008, 02:15 PM   #10
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That horse a 40% chance to win? Yikes. There is no way I could ever make that horse 3-2 fair odds.

The public is never that wrong.
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Old 02-19-2008, 04:58 PM   #11
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Are we still talking about Gula Gold in the 5th race?

If so, Jcapper had the fair oddsline of 2.68-1 .......lowest in the race per Jcap
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Old 02-19-2008, 05:23 PM   #12
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6th Maiden Race

Had him to win and the pick three.......... Fanning does not use Solis alot but when he does the horse is usually live........ as was the cast yesterday..... Del Mar cyber bet contest I put 100 dollars to win.........on Fanning horse....
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Old 02-19-2008, 06:36 PM   #13
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sorry about that race seven yesterday http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...8-02-18&race=7
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Old 02-19-2008, 06:37 PM   #14
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agree with surfdog

You are right surfdog. My program tells me that the Solis/Fanning is 50% win rate in the past 60 days. Or 1 for 2 for a return profit of $15.10 for each $2.00 bet. So that could also have persuaded pick 6 players to use this horse.

The 7th race winner had only one super workout on Oct 20,7 for 58:4 hg. The other 11 workouts were slow. A bad indication in works is when this horse went 24 days between works from Nov 2 to Nov 26th.

A good signal is that this Lit De Justice- sire was the only breeder's cup winner in the race amoung the sires of the starters. So that could have helped point people to bet this 7th race winner named Mymomawzafandancer.

The dam had one winner from two starters and from the Lear Fan line.


This horse was the hardest horse to pick in the pick 6 but it could have been played especially with a group ticket trying to hit a good pick six with a great carryover.
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Old 02-19-2008, 06:41 PM   #15
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your right about that ....fanning is a real old timer in So Cal......... and when he puts Alex on one of his horses it is usually a live horse
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