On your honor.......

[46zilzal]

Here is a classic, that in most years would have been a winner:right in the midrange of Point Given....CLASSICAL for this race.

It repeats over and over: last three averging 67.2-67.8 and you have a Derby qulaifier. Rising % median they watch from the sidelines.

[46zilzal]

Regarding NoBiz. A race of 9 furlongs is 5940 feet. A horse's stride is about 24 feet, so during this race, (adding about 4 for run-up) an animal has about 251 strides.

A bump (a subjective connotation without any reference to distance lost) might account for one to two strides. Steadied (subjective to chart maker as others, seeing the same thing, might have said in tight, and again without quanitification of any distance loss) another 2 to three strides.

So at best 5 strides in 251 (5/251)(100)=1.99203 or about 2% of the rest effected....Hardly enough to change the implicit nature of the animal's runnig style...

[46zilzal]

The classic elimination was Saarland: as the date of the race came up, the last three distances 9,8,9 furlongs showed this one was running earlier and earlier. A sure sign of not getting the trip on Derby day.

[46zilzal]

I missed the significance of Hard Spun's continual developement as improving as the distances got longer. Classic pattern to do well on Derby day. Moved right into range that works.......slight backwards motion in total energy threw me off, but it is the % median that is the most telling.

[46zilzal]

Scat Daddy; rising and not a qualifier.

[46zilzal]

Stormello going the way of an observer on the first Saturday of May.

[samyn on the green]

Now the thread has gone the way of complete farce. A exercise in blowing ones own horn. There is nothing educational or helpful about cutting and pasting historical screenshots from ones computer program. How about the all the losers that fit the criteria?


If you want to educate show some screen shots before the races and provide commentary on how to weed out the losers from the winners. Show us some losers as this game is more about weeding out loser than finding winners. As it stands this thread is just a redboard farce. There are some nice races being run tonight or tomorrow, you can show us how great you are by selecting the winners of those races before they are run.

[46zilzal]

Another one who jumps to conclusions and does not read: these are all qualifiers. REPEAT qualifiers, and have nothing to do with wagering, only exlcusion (last three above 68) or inclusion (last three in range of 67.2-67.8 % median, or moving into that range as the distances increased). Sounds simple and it is.

This represents many many hours of work and data review. Strange I don't hear any horns, just data...

There was ONE that made it to the top three that fell outside these parameters and placed: Closing Argument.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by samyn on the green

There is nothing educational or helpful about cutting and pasting historical screenshots from ones computer program. How about the all the losers that fit the criteria?

How do you learn pharmacology: by review of drug actions and interactions by HISTORY.

How do you learn auto mechanics? By reviewing how problems were presented and the various methods that resulted in them being repaired, or not. History.

How do you learn baseball? by reviewing your play, finding out where you need to improve. By History.

How do you learn a foreign language? you REVIEW your progress and BY HISTORY, learn where your weaknesses and strengths are to be found.

One does not improve in any field of endeavor without a revie? If there is a common thread to be found in that historical review, all the better: a simple way to get qualifiers for one of the biggest races of the season based upon a review of over 200 entrants into said race. Review..

[Greyfox]

46Z do you have any similar back history for the Preakness energy distributions
that you can give us an idea of the ranges for? Strikes me that it might allow for a slightly higher early?

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

46Z do you have any similar back history for the Preakness energy distributions
that you can give us an idea of the ranges for? Strikes me that it might allow for a slightly higher early?

Off the top of me head, they run into the range of 67.8 to about 68.4, still a fairly narrow range. Historically however, there are often lone earliers who sneak off unopposed, any many of them are the ones that failed two weeks eariler..

[46zilzal]

Bernardini was in Derby range.