Track Variant and Speed Ratings

[DigitalDownsJoe]

At what point between the 2 numbers do you start to question how impressive a bullet time really is? How much do you let the variant effect how you feel about a time.. Just curious if you could explain with some examples..

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by DigitalDownsJoe

At what point between the 2 numbers do you start to question how impressive a bullet time really is? How much do you let the variant effect how you feel about a time.. Just curious if you could explain with some examples..

I look at the days between workouts and the times.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I understand the speed rating and that the variant is how difficult or fast the track was for that day, but I mean like what do you consider better like a 85-10 or a 90-30. I head somepeople subtract the variant from the Seed. Just curious how to look better into these numbers..Also do you look at horses who finished close with the horse your handicapping and look for Italicized horses who came back and won in similair competition..

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DigitalDownsJoe

I understand the speed rating and that the variant is how difficult or fast the track was for that day, but I mean like what do you consider better like a 85-10 or a 90-30. I head somepeople subtract the variant from the Seed. Just curious how to look better into these numbers..Also do you look at horses who finished close with the horse your handicapping and look for Italicized horses who came back and won in similair competition..

You don't subtract the variant from the speed rating, you ADD it to the speed rating.

Having said that, let me hasten to add that the DRF track variant is next to useless for "serious play"...because it does not distinguish between the condition of the track and the quality of the of the horses competing during the day.

One never knows if a high variant means a slow surface...or slow horses racing over a normal surface.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You don't subtract the variant from the speed rating, you ADD it to the speed rating.

.

Bingo. I've never heard of anyone subtracting it.
(Personally, I don't find the DRF track variant as useless as you say, but to each their own. )

[DigitalDownsJoe]

That makes sense...That is why i posted this question, it didn't really make much sense to me at all. So I shouldn't pay too much attention to the variant, but maybe if there was a rogue race where the horse ran a great time, and the variant was very low, I can possibly throw it out as just a blazing fast track for the day. I tend to use anticipated pace for the race, class, and buyers odds from previous races as my main focus points. I also factor in workouts and jockeys and post positions in relation to the distance of the race and how close the gate is to the turn.

I have bet greyhounds for years, and I am just trying to become a better horse handicapper. What would you say are the most important factors in moving ahead from an average Joe skimming through the form? The whole variant thing always confused me a bit, was just wondering how much you take it into consideration and if there was specific instances where it might alert you to something important.

[Gapfire]

Originally Posted by DigitalDownsJoe

So I shouldn't pay too much attention to the variant,

I wouldn't go that far. The form variant gives you a rough idea. A really low variant could mean a very fast track, or it could mean that classier horses ran that day. Further investigation is required.

[Robert Goren]

Before Beyers I used this adjustment to the DRF daily variant.
Saturdays no adj
Sundays -2
Fridays -4
all other days -5
Big race Saturdays such as Derby Day +3

[Greyfox]

DigitalDownsJoe - I assume that you are talking about the Track Variant and the Speed Rating, not the Track Vairant and Seed Rating in your title.

One can add the DRF Track Variant and Speed Rating to get a rough ability time, if you know what adjustments to make.
For example, suppose the Track Variant for Sprints is 15 in the DRF.
The DRF gives us the following 3 speed ratings for three sprinters that have been earned at different distances.
Horse A 85 6 furlongs
Horse B 87 51/2 furlongs
Horse C 85 5 furlongs

If we add the DRF SR (Speed Rating) + TV we would get the following rough ability figures of :
Horse A = 85 + 15 = 100
Horse B = 87 + 15 = 102
Horse C = 85 + 15 = 100
These numbers suggest that the horses have very close Ability figures with the slight edge to Horse B.

In reality (after many observations) I've found the following adjustments are more accurate for Sprints.
6 furlongs - 0 adjustment to Track Variant TV=15
51/2 furlongs - reduce Track Variant by 1/3 TV now = 15-5=10
5 furlongs- reduce Track Variant by 2/3 TV=15-10 = 5

Recalculated Speed Figures + Track Variant
Horse A = 85+15 = 100
Horse B = 87 +10 = 97
Horse C = 85 + 5 = 90

This readjustment shows that, assuming they've both overcome similar pace times, in earning those figures, that Horse A and Horse B have shown previously higher ability than C. (I also use the variant to adjust the Pace times, but that requires too long an explanation to provide here.)

Obviously others might question those types of adjustments, but I do what works for me at the track. (I also make adjustments when a runner moves from sprints to routes and vice versa, but I'm not going to put that out here either.)

[JohnGalt1]

I love how there are so many ways to handicap speed. How one way makes a 1:10 actual time into 1:10.2 or 1:09.3 depending on how one compares track to track and variants.

I pretty much use William L. Scott's method for adjusting pace lines.

With 16,17 and 18 no adjustments. 19-20 add on point to pace figure, (i.e subtract one point from actual time).

For every two variant points higher add one point to pace figure. Over 40, and maybe less, use with caution, or ignore that pace line. A 1:41.1 mile with a variant of 46 on a muddy track would result in an adjusted time of 1:38.2, which may not be useful if the horse's other mile races are closer to normal.

Scott, to compensate for super fast tracks, uses a different approach with low variants.

14,15 -1, 12-13 -2, 10, 11 -3, but 9 is -4, 8 is -5, etc down to 1 or no variant--due to track record, -12.

So a horse who ran a 1:11 with a 19 variant would adjust to a 1:10.4 and a horse who ran 1:09 with a 5 variant would adjaut to a 1:10.3

TURF---I do NOT use variants at all on firm courses, since so few races are run per day, the winner's speed rating and variant always add up to a hundred. 96-4, or 88-12.

I also look at all turf races in the pp's. (Thanks Michael Pizolla for that advice,from the book Handicapping Magic.)

I don't like to use pace lines from good or yielding courses, but if the only races are on off tracks I use the variants, but subtract from the pace figures with this formula. If the tracks average variant for turf routes is 17 and the variant is 27, then I subtract 10 points or two seconds from the time, after adjusting for track to track.

Example--a horse who ran at Churchill a mile at 1:39 on a yielding course with a 27 variant now at Gulfstream. Churchill's average route variant is 15, and Gulfstream is 10 lengths faster than CD, so 22 lengths will be subtracted from his pace figure giving it an adjusted time of 1:34.3.

[Bruddah]

Originally Posted by Gapfire

I wouldn't go that far. The form variant gives you a rough idea. A really low variant could mean a very fast track, or it could mean that classier horses ran that day. Further investigation is required.

Gapfire is exactly correct. Horses showing a fast variant on weekdays, usually have run fast or the track was very fast that day. Investigate the quality of the racing card for each day. Fast variants on weekends tend to be influenced by better quality horses racing those days.

Each track has purse amounts equal to the quality of the horses that are in each race. i.e. $50k claimers have larger purses than $10k claimers Exception to the rule would be Maiden Special Weights, some Starter Allowances etc. and 2yr old races.

A good rule of thumb for generally estimating the quality of the racing card is to eliminate maiden purses, 2yr old races and the feature race purse. Add the other purses together to get a concept of the quality of the racing card that day. The bettter the purse average for the day, the higher quality of horses running that day.

[fmolf]

it,s funny because all the drf has to do is...instead of using the best speed of all horses sprinting in the past 3 years ....they would better serve their customers by using age and class specific times for each race then average all races.....but its been 3 yrs now since beyer pars went into the form and still they cannot give a par for a lot of races...i just do not understand this!

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by fmolf

it,s funny because all the drf has to do is...instead of using the best speed of all horses sprinting in the past 3 years ....they would better serve their customers by using age and class specific times for each race then average all races.....but its been 3 yrs now since beyer pars went into the form and still they cannot give a par for a lot of races...i just do not understand this!

If there were no such thing as conditioned claimers, I would agree with you. In my opinion, those conditions screw everything up as far as making class pars go. It is hard to get enough data, especially for young horses that you would expect to be improving throughout the year.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by fmolf

it,s funny but its been 3 yrs now since beyer pars went into the form and still they cannot give a par for a lot of races...i just do not understand this!

Good point. I find it annoying that they can't put the Beyer par times in for every race at every distance and surface.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Good point. I find it annoying that they can't put the Beyer par times in for every race at every distance and surface.

So a bad par is better than no par?