Stock Market Prediction

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Or maybe...things are different this time™...too many people are expecting it to go down more....so maybe it won't?

Nah...it's going to go down WAY MORE than anyone dreams...that's my new prediction...and that's the real "maybe it's different this time." The "difference this time" is going to be a crash so huge in the end, that nobody thought could happen.

It has to.

There is no way it can avoid it given our current economic circumstances.

This is just the beginning.

[PaceAdvantage]

2600 is my first stop on the way down.

When it gets down to 2600, we'll see where we are and reassess from there.

This market has to correct 50% from the runup from 2009 bottom. minimum

[PaceAdvantage]

The market hasn't even given up 50% of the COVID bottom gains...it's insane how inflated this balloon is...

3500 (50% of COVID gains)

then

2600

[PaceAdvantage]

One last note...today's volume wasn't even that special.

Big moves on meh volume...what does that mean?

It means not much fear selling. VIX barely got to 30 today...there is so much more left in the tank

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

2600 is my first stop on the way down.

When it gets down to 2600, we'll see where we are and reassess from there.

This market has to correct 50% from the runup from 2009 bottom. minimum

I think 2400-2600 is the worst it would get, that is 50% of it's all time high and matches the drop from the last two collapses. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a very long time to get to that number and to come off it.

[lamboguy]

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay22...ycles5-22.html

[lamboguy]

there is plenty of topsoil erosion now. good producing farmland is the most valuable commodity that we have now.

here is what i hope that is happening now. i never believed the big rise in the market since 2010. i am really hoping that we go back to that year and test out the bottom right there. the S+P was 1140 that year, and that could be the restart of growth. my guess for the probability of coming back to 1040 is about a 75% chance of that occurring. i am really hoping and praying that it stops going down at that point. you need to get it in your heads that what is going on now in the markets are not

i understand that these types of numbers are unrealistic to most. food shortages are beyond belief as well.

[Bustin Stones]

The market is heading down and the convo is about doom and gloom. When the market is high and happy, people are bragging about how they made money on a stock in the last 6 months.
This is the reason people on Wall St take home 7 figures.
What main street needs to do is when the market is heading down brag about how you scooped up which shares that are oversold. And when the market is frothing at the top, bragging at the water cooler about which shares you bought 5 or 10 years ago when the market was tanking and how you are selling now and taking your profit without worrying if it goes higher.
Playing on main street's greed and fear is how Wall St makes its money. Market swings are how Wall St creates this opportunity. Without the swings you only get 10% of the potential opportunity to fleece main street.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

The market is heading down and the convo is about doom and gloom. When the market is high and happy, people are bragging about how they made money on a stock in the last 6 months.
This is the reason people on Wall St take home 7 figures.
What main street needs to do is when the market is heading down brag about how you scooped up which shares that are oversold. And when the market is frothing at the top, bragging at the water cooler about which shares you bought 5 or 10 years ago when the market was tanking and how you are selling now and taking your profit without worrying if it goes higher.
Playing on main street's greed and fear is how Wall St makes its money. Market swings are how Wall St creates this opportunity. Without the swings you only get 10% of the potential opportunity to fleece main street.

i agree. when this decline is over, this will lead to the biggest bull market of all time. one needs to get his parameters in place and speculate what the bottom will be

[lamboguy]

McDonalds is going to have its problems this summer with the price of gasoline heading towards $7 per gallon and maybe higher and what i suspect will be food shortages in case the customer still makes into the store, the store may be short of things to sell them.

slong the same line of thought, i would be looking to short Coca Cola and Pepsi as well. they all have some good downside to travel

[lamboguy]

the CEO of this company has just bought over $5 million worth of stock in his own company after the stock got croaked. do you think he knows what he is doing? i just looked at the chart, and it is uglier than me if that is possible!

[lamboguy]

in this game, you cannot be a one-way player, and you can't have a big ego. you are going to be right and wrong. you must find your edges and take your profits while they are there, and when the trade goes against you, it's time to exit it and look for a better on.

there are people out there that are excellent traders with complex algorithms that work great and most importantly have a solid money management system always in place.

this is a tough game, but its a good one because there is a lot of action in it, and many ways to find it.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the CEO of this company has just bought over $5 million worth of stock in his own company after the stock got croaked. do you think he knows what he is doing? i just looked at the chart, and it is uglier than me if that is possible!

Revenue is not the issue.....Operating Expense is

yearly losses are coming down

But WTF I know...


By the way...What are those Congress People doing these days???

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

gold had a big day today in the face of the dollar still being so strong. if gold can break $1849, its off to the races.

the other trade i like is in the form of a pair. short the European markets and with the credit go long the United States. the key to this trade would be the currency markets. the dollar has basically gone from 94 to 104 non stop. i am guessing it stops now. it needs to come back inside the 103.820 for the confirmation of this. it will give the equities some kind of lift.

the short European long US croaked me yesterday. i am out of that one for now. its really the first time in a long long time that i got hamered using both sides of a trade in a few years. i have another one that has been working slightly so far. i am shorting JP Morgan and going long regional banks.


https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p...-when-this?s=r

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Revenue is not the issue.....Operating Expense is

yearly losses are coming down

But WTF I know...


By the way...What are those Congress People doing these days???

i am just posting these as possible ideas. nothing is ever going to be perfect. when i post about a market direction, its just an opinion that can be right or wrong. but i predict those moves strickly by the numbers, mainly the volumes and where i think the supply and demand is located inside the market. its nothing earth-shattering though. but when i post that i think the S+P is going down to 1140 at some point, i am not making up the direction, i have some type of reasoning behind the call.

as far as the congress goes, i posted some time last week that there have been mostly sales and have not seen anything lately that is out fo the ordinary with reason.