Fixed odds at Monmouth

[biggestal99]

second race PM 7.40 FO 9.20
third race PM 7.60 FO 6.60
fourth race PM 22.00 FO 17.00
fifth race PM 2.10 FO 2.70

Allan

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by green80

where are you watching the fixed odds? I don't see them displayed or the fixed odds payouts.

www.monmouthbets.com

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by alhattab

I calculated 40% for first 2 races earlier this am. Seem to have moderated.

Here are Sat 6/11 R1 prices as of Fri late afternoon

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by alhattab

Here are Sat 6/11 R1 prices as of Fri late afternoon

Based on these odds I get:

1- 2.4%
2- 4.8
3- 15.4
4- 15.4
5- 18.2
6- 21.7
7- 28.6
8- 42.6

149.1 total(!)

[biggestal99]

6 race PM 7.40 FO 10.00
7 race PM 7.80 FO 9.60
8 race PM 6.60 FO 8.00

Allan

[biggestal99]

races 8

fixed odds had the better price 6
pari-mutual had the better price 2

fixed odds the clear winner today.

Allan

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

races 8

fixed odds had the better price 6
pari-mutual had the better price 2

fixed odds the clear winner today.

Allan

Allan I’m wondering if they are working with a much higher rake in the ante post wagering as a protective measure against inside $. If my numbers are right they are begging you to not bet in advance. If you look at the final fixed odds in R8 today I get total probabilities of 107% and R6 of 125%. It’s like they are trying to discourage the early action.

[Onesome]

If you follow Aussie or UK price, yes they tend to keep their overrounds higher in the pretrading and as it comes closer to post time it gets more reasonable as its less likely there are anything seriously off in odds and markets get more efficient.

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by Onesome

If you follow Aussie or UK price, yes they tend to keep their overrounds higher in the pretrading and as it comes closer to post time it gets more reasonable as its less likely there are anything seriously off in odds and markets get more efficient.

Thank you. Makes sense from a risk standpoint

[biggestal99]

10 races yesterday

fixed odds won big time delivering better prices in 9 of them.

there was a 2 horse race. both horses went off 3-5 in the mutual pools
fixed odds? one was 7-10 the other nearly 6-5.

is there any question that betting fixed odds is much better in the long run?

Allan

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

10 races yesterday

fixed odds won big time delivering better prices in 9 of them.

there was a 2 horse race. both horses went off 3-5 in the mutual pools
fixed odds? one was 7-10 the other nearly 6-5.

is there any question that betting fixed odds is much better in the long run?

Allan

Either the people betting fixed odds are much worse handicappers than the parimutuel bettors, or the people offering fixed odds are going to go broke. I do not think lower takeout on fixed odds by itself would cause the price discrepancy that has been posted here.

At any rate you better jump on the opportunity while it lasts, because I don't think it will.

[green80]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

10 races yesterday

fixed odds won big time delivering better prices in 9 of them.

there was a 2 horse race. both horses went off 3-5 in the mutual pools
fixed odds? one was 7-10 the other nearly 6-5.

is there any question that betting fixed odds is much better in the long run?

Allan

How can this not be good for the betting public? If it's good for the betting public it's good for the horse racing industry.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Either the people betting fixed odds are much worse handicappers than the parimutuel bettors, or the people offering fixed odds are going to go broke. I do not think lower takeout on fixed odds by itself would cause the price discrepancy that has been posted here.

At any rate you better jump on the opportunity while it lasts, because I don't think it will.

fixed odds dont work like that. as my friend from the uk states, they just take the bets. their profit is guaranteed on most races due to the vig, its just an extension of sports betting. which is hugely profitable.

the books might lose on an occasional race now and then but their profit is almost assured long term as long as they dont make pricing errors early in the betting.

Allan

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

10 races yesterday

fixed odds won big time delivering better prices in 9 of them.

there was a 2 horse race. both horses went off 3-5 in the mutual pools
fixed odds? one was 7-10 the other nearly 6-5.

is there any question that betting fixed odds is much better in the long run?

Allan

Isn't that basically a 4-5% hold? Wow!

[biggestal99]

a perfect example of the power of fixed happened at Monmouth today in the 3rd.
Donyas Magic entered the gate at 4-1. once the whales got finished betting 2-1.
Matt Carothers was complained and then rationalized “thats the way it is” and said 4-1 would have been a gift.

hell Matt the horse paid 13 bucks American ( 6.5)on the fixed odds market.

nary a mention of it on TVG.

Allan