Kentucky Derby Top 10 Contenders- UPDATED 4/5

[Designed4Luck]

YouTube (Short URL)

[Thomas Roulston]

I'll be using Epicenter, Messier, Smile Happy, and Crown Pride.

All four have Dosage Indexes not exceeding 4.00 (only Forbidden Kingdom, among these 10 horses, has a DI >4.00), have at least some Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in their Dosage Profiles (perennial bridesmaid Barber Road, Simplification, Cyberknife, and White Abarrio do not), and while Charge It is not void on the stamina wing, he obviously would not have been weighted within 10 pounds on the EFH if it still existed.

[lamboguy]

mmm, not one mention for any horse that has been training and running in New York... big mistake.

[Thomas Roulston]

There's gotta be a reason why the Wood Memorial is now a Grade II, when it used to be a Grade I.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

There's gotta be a reason why the Wood Memorial is now a Grade II, when it used to be a Grade I.

the reason had to be to just piss me off

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

I'll be using Epicenter, Messier, Smile Happy, and Crown Pride.

All four have Dosage Indexes not exceeding 4.00 (only Forbidden Kingdom, among these 10 horses, has a DI >4.00), have at least some Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in their Dosage Profiles (perennial bridesmaid Barber Road, Simplification, Cyberknife, and White Abarrio do not), and while Charge It is not void on the stamina wing, he obviously would not have been weighted within 10 pounds on the EFH if it still existed.

Means less than nothing

[Robert Fischer]

Thanks for another nice contender video.

Hope you guys publish at least one more following the final preps this weekend.


My cognitive processes are 'off' a little bit, but I was in a good mood and liked the video.

um, one unique opininon I had = Summer is Tomorrow trained by Bhupat Seemar.
I liked his UAE Derby effort. I haven't seen a lot of that online. I liked how he rapidly developed and his prep for the UAE Derby which was in a lower class level in some vague ways reminded me of Maximum Security with the quick break from the gate to get forward of the field and the fundamentally sound high cruising speed once quickly to the front. Unfortunately, I think of him like I thought of I think is named 'Rock Your World'? (the Hronis project last year who took money in the Derby) where the quality of pace rivals will be too tough in the derby. Still interesting, as the Rock Your World was way overbet, while this guy should be about the longest shot on the board.

Don't overlook the Japanese contingent, even though I'm not high on the entrant (#10 on your list I forget the name) who came up to beat Summer is Tomorro in the UAE Derby, specifically.

Crown Pride there it is.


uh hmm... I'm not really crazy about anyone in this crop.

like i said before the louisiana derby, Epicenter is as solid as anyone at this point to hit the board. Now that he ran again, and it's recent, that's just 'company line' public consensus stuff

I haven't capped the Bluegrass, Santa Anita or Wood yet. Maybe once I see the workouts for Forbidden Kingdom and Messier I'll know, but it's mostly just guessing until I see them run again (if that resolves anything). I respect them both.

Smile Happy has run some solid races and is taking a ton of fanfare. Looks like a solid horse to me, guess we'll possibly learn more.
Off-hand I like Zandon a little better... I notice both are in the Bluegrass. Maybe Zandon will be playable if I hold that opinion after handicapping the race? Maybe Zandon can hit the board in the Kentucky Derby?? I don't know what I'm having for dinner tomorrow.

Early Voting has some potential to be a little better than the current quiet fanfare. If he does well in the Wood that will be less of a value.

I don't like Zozos at all, I hope he gets in. Cyberknife is better than his speed figure appears, but he doesn't appear good enough anyway. I respect all of the Cox, Brown, Baffert guys, and always re-evaluate those as races like the Derby come up.

The Derby is shaping up to be a bettable race. It's one thing with some of the recent years when I know the superstar Baffert horse or whatever, is going to win, and I'm trying to find multis or exotics to leverage with, - and it's quite another when the 'Win' slot is up for grabs (like last year, which was also a good betting race).

Usually share a bunch of info as the Derby nears, and probably will again this year. (trying to)Enjoying the ride.