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03-24-2022, 01:06 PM
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#152
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
What is the highest rating you have ever given a horse CJ?
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This is since 2015:
Code:
Name Track Day TimeformUS
Gun Runner SAR 09/02/2017 141.66
Gun Runner GP 01/27/2018 141.47
Flightline SA 12/26/2021 140.96
Gun Runner DMR 11/04/2017 139.94
Arrogate SA 11/05/2016 138.87
Arrogate GP 01/28/2017 138.86
Gun Runner CD 06/17/2017 138.77
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03-24-2022, 01:14 PM
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#153
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,081
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
This is since 2015:
Code:
Name Track Day TimeformUS
Gun Runner SAR 09/02/2017 141.66
Gun Runner GP 01/27/2018 141.47
Flightline SA 12/26/2021 140.96
Gun Runner DMR 11/04/2017 139.94
Arrogate SA 11/05/2016 138.87
Arrogate GP 01/28/2017 138.86
Gun Runner CD 06/17/2017 138.77
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Thank you.
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03-24-2022, 01:27 PM
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#154
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foregoforever
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At least reality is being acknowledged and some of these interesting horses are out of TC points Purgatory
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-24-2022, 01:44 PM
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#155
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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03-24-2022, 01:57 PM
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#156
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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If his horses wind up running very well in their final preps and earn the points needed to get in, at least the Derby won't turn into some kind of Haskell prep.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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03-24-2022, 03:12 PM
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#157
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
If his horses wind up running very well in their final preps and earn the points needed to get in, at least the Derby won't turn into some kind of Haskell prep.
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I am hoping CHRB subpoenas the agreements with the other trainers. This could be a sham.
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03-24-2022, 03:25 PM
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#158
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
If his horses wind up running very well in their final preps and earn the points needed to get in, at least the Derby won't turn into some kind of Haskell prep.
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Yep.
Hamstringing the long historical association between San Vicente also-rans and Kentucky Derby glory would have been needless collateral damage in this unfortunate storyline...
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03-24-2022, 03:36 PM
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#159
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Yep.
Hamstringing the long historical association between San Vicente also-rans and Kentucky Derby glory would have been needless collateral damage in this unfortunate storyline...
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If they were still trained by Baffert, I'd say you were underestimating the probability 1-2 could still take a significant step up between now and the Derby.
I'm sure a lot a people think Messier is a serious contender. I think he had the benefit of a track that favored him last time, but it was still a fast and dominant race. So he could still be a very good horse that jumped up for Baffert (as they often do) that just happened to also catch a favorable track.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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03-24-2022, 04:04 PM
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#160
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
If they were still trained by Baffert, I'd say you were underestimating the probability 1-2 could still take a significant step up between now and the Derby.
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What classic winner trained by Baffert stepped up dramatically from the ho-hum efforts similar to McLaren Vale and Doppelgänger between March and Derby day?
Justify? By all accounts was a freak before he ever started; Baffert even showed up to saddle him for his debut.
War Emblem? He certainly stepped up dramatically...for another trainer. Baffert bought him a few days before the 2002 Kentucky Derby.
His other classic winners (American Pharoah, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given, Lookin At Lucky, and Authentic) were all well established horses.
Baffert has certainly had some undistinguished horses jump up and win a late prep (e.g., Midnight Interlude), but as I said elsewhere, they have done nothing in the actual classic races.
Quote:
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I'm sure a lot a people think Messier is a serious contender. I think he had the benefit of a track that favored him last time, but it was still a fast and dominant race. So he could still be a very good horse that jumped up for Baffert (as they often do) that just happened to also catch a favorable track.
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I suppose Messier is vaguely reminiscent of Medina Spirit (who ultimately did not win the KY Derby) and even Real Quiet (who won a Grade 1 million dollar race as a 2yo), but any enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that he skipped a recent major prep likely because of physical issues.
That does not suggest he's moving forward or will even be able to repeat his last race (especially if he has to run against better horses than Cabo Spirit and Happy Jack).
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03-24-2022, 04:26 PM
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#161
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Messier skipping the previous prep is reminiscent of Life Is Good skipping the Lewis last year. We'll see I guess, but sure does seem fishy. Of course with that one he couldn't run straight so it seemed pretty obvious something was amiss.
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03-24-2022, 04:54 PM
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#162
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,081
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Messier skipping the previous prep is reminiscent of Life Is Good skipping the Lewis last year. We'll see I guess, but sure does seem fishy. Of course with that one he couldn't run straight so it seemed pretty obvious something was amiss.
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Your numbers have Forbidden Kingdom and Messier tops thus far with Epicenter, Morello, and Classic Causeway just behind.
I'd love to hear your opinion on which one you believe is best.
Maybe a better question is, if those 5 showed up in a race tomorrow, who would you have as the favorite?
Last edited by PalaceOfFortLarned; 03-24-2022 at 04:59 PM.
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03-24-2022, 05:19 PM
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#163
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
What classic winner trained by Baffert stepped up dramatically from the ho-hum efforts similar to McLaren Vale and Doppelgänger between March and Derby day?
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I don't view it through a narrow lens like just the Derby. The samples are too small for my taste.
IMO his relatively lightly raced high quality horses are more likely to have very meaningful jumps in performance than for the average trainer. So I build that into my thinking when I bet. I've occasionally seen signals in the workouts, but I don't have any magic formula.
This group may turn out to be nothing special and develop slowly or Messier may be the goods. More than likely, I'll take a small stab against Messier in the SA Derby because imo that last race may not as good as it looks. However, if too many people are on "beat Messier" train, I won't be on board. I'll worry about that when the time comes.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 03-24-2022 at 05:21 PM.
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03-26-2022, 01:49 AM
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#164
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
Your numbers have Forbidden Kingdom and Messier tops thus far with Epicenter, Morello, and Classic Causeway just behind.
I'd love to hear your opinion on which one you believe is best.
Maybe a better question is, if those 5 showed up in a race tomorrow, who would you have as the favorite?
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Probably Forbidden Kingdom, but I didn't spend a lot of time on something unlikely to happen. And if it does, I'll have plenty more time. 🤣
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03-26-2022, 10:42 AM
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#165
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Probably Forbidden Kingdom, but I didn't spend a lot of time on something unlikely to happen. And if it does, I'll have plenty more time. 🤣
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One thing for sure is that if he goes, he's looks like the least likely to be able to relax behind horses. If the other speeds chase him it might get super hot like the old days. There are quite a few quality horses that I'd say like the lead. If I was a trainer I might be trying to teach my horse to relax a little right about now.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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