To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by barn32

You don't think there have been successful handicappers who just picked winners?

Of course. But they were also picking overlays.

There is no other way to make money, other than to bet on horses who are paying more than they should. It's impossible to make money otherwise.

Let's make this simple. If you bet on three 2-1 shots, you should win once, on average, since 2-1 equates to roughly 33.33% chance of winning. If you only win once, you break even. You haven't bet on an overlay. You have to bet on horses who are paying more than they should, to make money. Even if you aren't actively making an odds line and "looking" for overlays, if you don't bet on horses that are paying more than they should (in the above example, betting on a horse with a 33.33% chance of winning that is going off at 5-2, which makes you money), you can not win. Thus you can not win if you don't bet on overlays.

If you're winning long term, you're betting on overlays, whether you are actively aware of this or not, you are betting on overlays if you are winning in the long term.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by barn32

You don't think there have been successful handicappers who just picked winners?

Your statement is a tautology.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

.......There is no other way to make money, other than to bet on horses who are paying more than they should. It's impossible to make money otherwise..........

Luck can make you money.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Of course. But they were also picking overlays.

There is no other way to make money, other than to bet on horses who are paying more than they should. It's impossible to make money otherwise.

If you're winning long term, you're betting on overlays, whether you are actively aware of this or not, you are betting on overlays if you are winning in the long term.

I agree with this, I'm not saying you can't win using that stuff. I'm saying you can't hit the horses I hit just relying on it.

Played 7 races on Saturdays big card. Made money by hitting one race. those numbers generally don't point to those kind of horses. Not saying I don't use them but you really need the horses that "out run their odds" to win. Just my opinion, because it works for me.


Who knows maybe the OP has their own way, but the best numbers are usually low pay outs.