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06-06-2019, 02:05 PM
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#16
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerocraft67
Jovia, 30-1
Here we have the longest shot on the board. Double next best Tax at 15-1.
How about those blistering fractions in the Wood Memorial? Are they not the fastest early pace figs in the field? Swung in from the 11th post and took the lead. Caused some consternation doing so. Beat by two of the classy contenders here (among others). Probably no surprise.
Don't want to make too much of the last win in the Long Branch, vs. three in the slop with hottest contender breaking down and the track favoring speed.
Alwaysmining put him away easily in the Private Terms at Laurel. But he got place, in his second race, first of the three-year-old campaign.
Lightly raced. Looks to get the lead, saving ground on the inside. No early threat to its outside. Did I mention 30-1 on the morning line?
No class to speak of other than the burnout in the Wood. No obvious distance pedigree, but that's not my thing.
Any inkling he can stay the distance, and I'm very interested.
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"Hoping that the race flow is too forward-favoring and that Tacitus is too sluggish", is about the only value-oriented angle that I can even imagine.
Such a tough race, in terms of value. Tacitus is a legit favorite. War of Will is a legit co-favorite. Several speeds, and several closers, none of which stand out within their respective style groupings.
I don't love Joevia. And, there are 3 or 4 priced speeds that I would have to use, in order to divide up a bet like that for me, so it will not be my angle.
My only semi-opinion of the speeds; War of Will can inherit a contending trip if he is the same horse as he was in the Preakness, and that Tax belonged in the Derby and gets a better trip and a class-drop here in the Belmont. I think Tax is about a coin-flip to run a contending trip, but I also think there are lot's of ways that Tax can get beat, even if he runs 3rd at 10-1, or whatever.
Looks like a pass for me on the race.
McKinzie was a horse I leaned against in the Classic last year, while keying Thunder Snow across the board, but McKinzie jumped off the screen in his recent work, and looks like he may be a single for me in spite of a race full of nice horses /Met Mile. Just not sure that opinion will really be that unique. If he's not singled, he'll be on everyone's A-list. I'll look to the Turf (Manhattan) but it looks like one of the trainers has four entrants in the Manhattan.
Have to re-look at the card under a more optimistic state of mind.
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06-06-2019, 02:50 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Looks like a pass for me on the race.
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If it wasn't the Belmont I'd probably take a pass. I don't think the will be the lone speed. There are several in here who are likely to at least press that one. The have all flashed some early speed, any of which could easily hang with the .
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06-06-2019, 04:20 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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If you're hoping for a Ruler on Ice outcome, then I could see using him. The problem with him and other horses in this race, like Intrepid Heart, is that they just don't have the "foundation" under their belts and that would be okay if they were Justify but they're not. Here are 2 horses who only carried 117 / 118 in last races (at shorter) , only had 1 race as 2 year olds, and foundation for the Belmont is way more important than in any other race.
Intrepid Heart was weaving and looked almost a little drunk to me, carrying only 118 and only going 1-1/8 in the Peter Pan.....yes, breeeding is nice but has to have performance on track to back it up.......and foundation is everything which is why you see this kind of running.
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06-06-2019, 04:49 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
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The Joevia should be considered lone speed in this race. If you look at the start of the wood, you get all the evidence you need. He was hell bent to get the lead. With Spinoff as the designated presser, and probably the only other one that is close, it is up to Joevia on how fast or slow the pace will be. Have serious doubts about this horse getting the distance, but worth a few bucks as a backup, or as the "odds" horse in a pick 3 series that promises to be chalky.
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06-07-2019, 09:11 AM
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#20
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Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 684
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The Intrepid Heart has shown ability to rate in only three races, but surely he and WoW will keep Joevia honest. I kind of wonder whether puts even more pressure on the leader and boosts the pace more than expected. How else does win the Belmont Stakes in his fourth race?
Otherwise looks like Joevia has a good shot at optimizing the pace for himself, but that's not a sure thing, and of course there are still questions about his raw ability to win this. I also suspect he either wins or fades to way back, so not really interested in him underneath.
But at 30-1 or more, I can talk myself into a small win bet in the mix. I don't see anyone on him. And it's not like this crop of three-year-olds is one for the ages.
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06-07-2019, 06:57 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,207
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Joevia is just cheap speed to me. I expect him to fold easily.
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06-07-2019, 07:20 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
I'm more inclined to favor horses that appear to have the stamina for this distance, but *hated* the slop in the Derby, like Spinoff and Tax, should the track come up dry.
Are we supposed to have a dry fast track for this race?
Does anyone have an inkling of whether the pace will be fast or slow?
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There will probably be 5 or so horses within 3-4 lengths down the backstretch. I'm not anticipating a fast pace or finishing time. Maybe Joevia tries to steal one, but my money isn't going that way. I think the smart jockeys know how this race will be run and will adjust.
Today was about as good as weather gets in NYC. I thought tomorrow was going to be about the same, maybe cloudy, but rain is unlikely.
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06-07-2019, 08:25 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Well if you liked Jovia before then you have to love him after today the way the track played.
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06-08-2019, 05:42 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Well if you liked Jovia before then you have to love him after today the way the track played.
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Most of the races were with turfers, and the dirt races were sprints. ???
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06-08-2019, 11:23 AM
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#25
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Joevia is currently 14-1.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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06-08-2019, 11:29 AM
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#26
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Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 684
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
Joevia is currently 14-1.
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06-08-2019, 07:02 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 117
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all of you who thought joevia was the lone speed were correct, ran a good race
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06-08-2019, 07:53 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkMare
all of you who thought joevia was the lone speed were correct, ran a good race
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Think that track and pace carried him a long way.
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06-08-2019, 07:54 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 106
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He stayed on well , a good race for a horse some said did not belong.
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06-08-2019, 11:18 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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I had looked at his BEL works back in Jan Feb March, then at his mare side stamina, turns out he WASN'T the worst horse in the race like I said.
Hope the OP played him........14-1 was way way low though. Heck super steed was 65-1 in the race he won, I would have thought Joevia would have gone off at least 35-1
Glad I only invested in an exacta.
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