Tacitus

[LemonSoupKid]

There is a lot to like with Tacitus.

Maybe Mott can finally get off the schneid, and go full throttle with the breeding. Hofburg never panned out, was green and of the same style --- the difference here is that Tacitus has shown us he knows how to win and much more.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

There is a lot to like with Tacitus.

For me there's not, but I might play him in 4th.
He moves up on slop but if track comes up slop I may pass the derby and save my $$ for the Belmont or Preakness.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

There is a lot to like with Tacitus.

Maybe Mott can finally get off the schneid, and go full throttle with the breeding. Hofburg never panned out, was green and of the same style --- the difference here is that Tacitus has shown us he knows how to win and much more.

there is. he stumbled and won,..he's raced between horses and won. and he might get better.


as much as i like him and he's in my small grouping, he's at the bottom of it.

i'm still a lil' wishy washy with him, and can some cases aganst... most likely he will have to overcome more in the derby and could be far back. i don't like that

[LemonSoupKid]

Yes, coming from behind is always harder, and most of the recent races have gone to front runners.

Just look at:

Justify
Always Dreaming
Nyquist
American Pharoah
*Orb - 15th early, horses go 4th fastest 1/2 and 3/4 in Derby history

Still, you can only argue there are 2 horses that are better. Of course many can take steps forward, but only Game Winner and Omaha Beach can be argued.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Yes, coming from behind is always harder, and most of the recent races have gone to front runners.

Just look at:

Justify
Always Dreaming
Nyquist
American Pharoah
*Orb - 15th early, horses go 4th fastest 1/2 and 3/4 in Derby history

Still, you can only argue there are 2 horses that are better. Of course many can take steps forward, but only Game Winner and Omaha Beach can be argued.

i just wished he put away tax more than he did. that bothers me. what also bothers me is there wasn't much comp in the wood as i thought there would be. not to mention the race was set up for him once again.

it' also seems pretty logical to think that one or a few the top stalkers/closers could be compromised in this race. and let's be honest outside of OB you do not know where the other top 4 will be in the race.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i just wished he put away tax more than he did. that bothers me. what also bothers me is there wasn't much comp in the wood as i thought there would be. not to mention the race was set up for him once again.

it' also seems pretty logical to think that one or a few the top stalkers/closers could be compromised in this race. and let's be honest outside of OB you do not know where the other top 4 will be in the race.

I agree with this. As I've said, when I'm hard on a horse like this that I love for ability and other funny factors (gray, Mott, etc) he typically ends up 3rd or 4th.

I have said for 3 weeks now that this race is gonna be chalk, I absolutely think GW and OB are the best. They have more of the common scenarios on top, which is what gambling is about. Tacitus with the right scenario can absolutely do it, but he gets that probably 2-3x less than the top two if we ran it 100 times.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

I agree with this. As I've said, when I'm hard on a horse like this that I love for ability and other funny factors (gray, Mott, etc) he typically ends up 3rd or 4th.

I have said for 3 weeks now that this race is gonna be chalk, I absolutely think GW and OB are the best. They have more of the common scenarios on top, which is what gambling is about. Tacitus with the right scenario can absolutely do it, but he gets that probably 2-3x less than the top two if we ran it 100 times.

i wouldn't doubt it.

after OB the other four choices could easily be staggered behind them in a way only to hurt all the other horses that can get the jump on them. each one of them possibly occupying a position that will insure at least one of them getting into the ticket if not all of them.

in this type of race how on earth can x horse get by two of them even if one of them has problems.

imagine grinding past tactitus and then trying to tackle another one or two further up...just not likely imo..and we're not talking anything other than maybe 3rd here...

only hope imo for a big number is that a horse with some tactical speed could get lucky and race big for 2/3rd and traffic problems for a couple of the top five

seems like the top five should get at least two in the money....

[tjfla]

See the works today? WWW went flying by the Mott duo and Tacitus looked PISSED(as much as a horse can).


Not sure he likes getting passed in the stretch

[Parkview_Pirate]

"The curse of the Wood Memorial" not withstanding, Tacitus sure checks a lot of boxes and looks very much to me like the horse to key in a relatively wide open (on paper, and often for the Derby) race. I'd agree with Classhandicapper's thoughts on why the last 15 years the runners in the Wood have struggled three weeks later at CD.

Now I'll be bold and make a prediction - that the odds on Tacitus are closer to 6-1 than his 10-1 morning line. But maybe my view is just slanted. I would not want to try and make a living as an oddsmaker....

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

"The curse of the Wood Memorial" not withstanding, Tacitus sure checks a lot of boxes and looks very much to me like the horse to key in a relatively wide open (on paper, and often for the Derby) race. I'd agree with Classhandicapper's thoughts on why the last 15 years the runners in the Wood have struggled three weeks later at CD.

Now I'll be bold and make a prediction - that the odds on Tacitus are closer to 6-1 than his 10-1 morning line. But maybe my view is just slanted. I would not want to try and make a living as an oddsmaker....

With the scratch of Omaha Beach, looks like Tacitus will be the chalk around 4-1 or 9/2. <sigh>

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

With the scratch of Omaha Beach, looks like Tacitus will be the chalk around 4-1 or 9/2. <sigh>

you should get a better price than that

[clicknow]

woudn't it be weird if it was "the other Mott" that ends up doing something......

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by clicknow

woudn't it be weird if it was "the other Mott" that ends up doing something......

i doubt it.

i think tacitus really benefits from all the speed inside him as well. + the horse can even leave a lil if he wants to. i hate to say it,...but he looks a lil dangerous sitting 8thish

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i doubt it.

i think tacitus really benefits from all the speed inside him as well. + the horse can even leave a lil if he wants to. i hate to say it,...but he looks a lil dangerous sitting 8thish

Certainly a candidate for an "across the board" play if you like him. Many do. I agree he looks somewhat dangerous.

For me, Wood was basically a 3 horse race, nobody else lifted a hoof to speak of. Derby is a 20 horse race, I will guess that at least 1/2 the field lifts a hoof. At low odds now, I would need more value.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Certainly a candidate for an "across the board" play if you like him. Many do.

For me, Wood was basically a 3 horse race, nobody else lifted a hoof to speak of. Derby is a 20 horse race, I will guess that at least 1/2 the field lifts a hoof. At low odds now, I would need more value.

the wood wasn't a 3 horse race on paper. it ended that way,..but it looked stronger imo

can't fault anyone for betting tacitus to win. you might get 10-1

as for haikal..the horse has little chance in the derby imo. he was all out to beat math wizard and had some sweet set ups in previous races.