Ask Andy Beyer

[thaskalos]

In harness racing, the "sucking up" factor is blatant; a horse that can never brake 1:59 when winning will often run 1:58 (or even faster) when chasing a faster horse to the wire. Andy Beyer has observed that this phenomenon does not transfer over to the thoroughbreds...and I tend to agree. In our game...the horses seem to record their best speed figures when they run their sharpest races.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

This shouldn't be too hard to test. You just have to define the suck up horse. Try a query, for example, with horses that weren't in the top 3 at any point, have a last race speed figure in the top three next out, and see how they do from a win percentage and ROI standpoint. Then compare to all horses with a top 3 speed figure last out that were in the top three at some point during the last race.

You can do the same for horses that battle for the lead then fade to the back. The only limits are your ability to accurately define what you are researching. The answers are there if you get the question right.

I would make the "suck up category" as coming from further back than just outside the top 3 early. To me, it's more of a last move situation where the horse made no effort to actually be in a position to win the race early but then finished strongly without threatening.

If you are mid back, you probably earned it with an early or mid race move.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would make the "suck up category" as coming from further back than just outside the top 3 early. To me, it's more of a last move situation where the horse made no effort to actually be in a position to win the race early but then finished strongly without threatening.

If you are mid back, you probably earned it with an early or mid race move.

I wasn't really trying to define it for you, just saying it was easy to do and you need to provide the definition of what you want to test. That was just an example.

[delayjf]

using the Beyer variants 90% of the time

Do you make an individual variant for your pace figures?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by delayjf

Do you make an individual variant for your pace figures?

Yes. I convert the Beyer to a Quirin number, then make the raw fractions Quirin style also.

Beyer - Qirin = 105

Raw fractions = 98 - 96, slow 7 and slow 9

I have Dave Schwartz Par Times and use his $10K bases.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree.

The horses that don't finish in the top few are sometimes horses that were used early trying to win but got put away by superior horses. So they rarely run the best final time figure they are capable of. That goes double if they were already well out of the "purse" group and get eased late by the rider.

The latter is WAY more apparent in harness racing where horses that were in the back and made no real move into contention sucked up late with a faster final time than they could possibly earn if they moved earlier and actually tried to win the race.

That's why fast final times are much less useful in harness racing when a horse is badly beaten. It's called "carried to time". I always wondered why that was since it seems contradictory but I think it's due to the fact that in nature any horse that lags behind the herd is the most likely to be brought down by predators so that many carry this inborn terror of being left behind. I've even noticed this in my recreational riding. The power of evolutionary psychology.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

That's why fast final times are much less useful in harness racing when a horse is badly beaten. It's called "carried to time". I always wondered why that was since it seems contradictory but I think it's due to the fact that in nature any horse that lags behind the herd is the most likely to be brought down by predators so that many carry this inborn terror of being left behind. I've even noticed this in my recreational riding. The power of evolutionary psychology.

It's still not clear why being "carried to time" is much much more likely to apply to harness racing than T bred racing. Something I'll need to work on.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

It's still not clear why being "carried to time" is much much more likely to apply to harness racing than T bred racing. Something I'll need to work on.

Most likely there is way more drafting involved in harness racing because of the sulky.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

It's still not clear why being "carried to time" is much much more likely to apply to harness racing than T bred racing. Something I'll need to work on.

I think it could be this way at least partially because of better speed figures being available for the T breds (where i agree this very, very rarely happens)

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

That's why fast final times are much less useful in harness racing when a horse is badly beaten. It's called "carried to time". I always wondered why that was since it seems contradictory but I think it's due to the fact that in nature any horse that lags behind the herd is the most likely to be brought down by predators so that many carry this inborn terror of being left behind. I've even noticed this in my recreational riding. The power of evolutionary psychology.

It's not unique to horses.

If you look at human distance runners at just below the elite level, they often run their best times when they are in an event with paced, elite runners. The effect can be dramatic-- Jeff Nelson, who for many years was the fastest high school 2 miler of all time, ran 8:36.3 as a high schooler against an elite field of runners, but couldn't break 8:50 against high school competition.

It's a function of pace dynamics. We simply run faster when we have a target to run at.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

It's not unique to horses.

If you look at human distance runners at just below the elite level, they often run their best times when they are in an event with paced, elite runners. The effect can be dramatic-- Jeff Nelson, who for many years was the fastest high school 2 miler of all time, ran 8:36.3 as a high schooler against an elite field of runners, but couldn't break 8:50 against high school competition.

It's a function of pace dynamics. We simply run faster when we have a target to run at.

Seeing how the vast majority of horses are decelerating in the last 1/4 mile of a dirt race are they really running at a target?

A human knows for many days in advance that they will be running against elite caliber competition. A human's brain can prepare the body to do extraordinary things. I doubt that a horse has the same ability.

[classhandicapper]

I'll try again, but from another direction to make it clearer.

IMO, it's partially a function of energy distribution. If you are trying to win a race, you have to either use your horse early or in the middle to get into position to win. The key word there is "use".

If you are at the back of the pack running very comfortably for your level of ability and then make one very late run, you are typically not in any position to win, but since you never used your horse, you are apt to finish quite well. You may earn a slightly faster speed figure than you would have if you did use the horse earlier to get into position. It depends on the quality of the horses in front of you and the pace they were setting. You won't catch better horses, but they may drag you to that better time as a result.

Drafting may also be a component of it, but I don't have enough knowledge to know how much or how to measure it.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would make the "suck up category" as coming from further back than just outside the top 3 early

I worked standardred meets for 9 years and saw this repeatedly.....The stewards were actually the ones who told me to watch for it

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Seeing how the vast majority of horses are decelerating in the last 1/4 mile of a dirt race are they really running at a target?

A human knows for many days in advance that they will be running against elite caliber competition. A human's brain can prepare the body to do extraordinary things. I doubt that a horse has the same ability.

Why wouldn't they see it as a target?

There's another thing we all know about. Horse makes lead in the stretch and "waits" on competition. Jockeys describe this all the time. Forego was a classic example. Put him on the lead and he would relax. Put a horse alongside him and he would give maximum effort.

I think this is inherent in competition. Any athlete trained to compete will try to summon extra energy to keep up with another competitor.

As CH says, when they are used early, they may have no energy left. But when they aren't....

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Why wouldn't they see it as a target?

There's another thing we all know about. Horse makes lead in the stretch and "waits" on competition. Jockeys describe this all the time. Forego was a classic example. Put him on the lead and he would relax. Put a horse alongside him and he would give maximum effort.

I think this is inherent in competition. Any athlete trained to compete will try to summon extra energy to keep up with another competitor.

As CH says, when they are used early, they may have no energy left. But when they aren't....

Rarely is a horse not "used" early in a dirt race. They are usually running slower in the last part of the race compared to the first part of a race. While a horse may receive some benefit from running covered up not having the full force of the wind as a restriction it won't find some extra energy by virtue of racing against better.

I would opine the exact opposite of your theory. Horses under less stress are able to use their energy more efficiently and run faster. Many frontrunners, for example, run their fastest times when they are able to run loose on the lead with no stress. Those same frontrunners are usually unable to duplicate fast times when challenged for the lead.

Quit trying to compare humans in competition with horses in competition. Horses do not mentally prepare for competition the way humans do.