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04-28-2019, 03:23 PM
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#31
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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Taking my first serious look at the field today, and Tax looks pretty good. His E2 numbers and final figs say he can be right there throughout.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-28-2019, 03:56 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
DP is sire-only numbers without the dam taken into account?
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Roman's theory is based on influential sires --- both their achievements on the track but the ability of their progeny. The dominant sires are Chef-de-Races.
Brisnet: Dosage is a system that attempts to predict the distance potential of
horses based on certain sires in the first four generations of their
pedigrees.
Bill Lathrop did for the mare side what roman did for the sire side. This site is no longer active but you can read what he did here and he wrote a book on it, but the book is out of print so the few people who have one are ahead of game as they will have a fresher list of the conduits / influences from female side using speed/stamina indexes and triads. Many of my pedigree pals still do thse but it is very time consuming to click thru all the conduits and do all the numbers.
https://dimarres.wixsite.com/modern-conduit-mares
Last edited by clicknow; 04-28-2019 at 04:02 PM.
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04-28-2019, 04:01 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
one of his big things was that breeding was so speed dominant in the modern era (90s on up) that it led to a faulty understanding of what the DI was.
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In N.A.
Not in europe
I never used his system as a stand a lone w/out the mares side, however, his performance figures were absolutely golden.
Last edited by clicknow; 04-28-2019 at 04:03 PM.
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05-01-2019, 12:51 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
In N.A.
Not in europe
I never used his system as a stand a lone w/out the mares side, however, his performance figures were absolutely golden.
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Yes and Yes.
I loved Steve's PFs
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05-01-2019, 04:33 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Watching the Wood replay, I'm undecided whether Tax tired down the stretch or he just conceded when challenged. I'm thinking it's the latter. Anyone have an opinion?
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05-01-2019, 10:46 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadVindication
Watching the Wood replay, I'm undecided whether Tax tired down the stretch or he just conceded when challenged. I'm thinking it's the latter. Anyone have an opinion?
https://youtu.be/tl6sphb_0Tk?t=98
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My opinion won't be popular but I'll give it. Tacitus was bearing inward on Tax so much there at the end, I thought he was going to knock Tax right into the rail.
If anything, to me, that speaks to a horse who is getting leg weary and is drifting. If the jockey was doing that "on purpose" then that should have been called out so I'm gonna assume it was Tacitus who was drifting in like that.
I'm not the only one who saw this and interpretted it like that. Some were even surprised the stewards did not get involved.
This was Tacitus' first race at 1-1/8.
Tax had already run 2 races at 1-1/8th and ran ITM. And ran ITM again here. So the idea of him being the leg weary one is preposterous to me.
Last edited by clicknow; 05-01-2019 at 10:49 PM.
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05-01-2019, 11:06 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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tax had a golden trip in the wood.....and if tacitus can go by him in the stretch why can't any or all of bafferts horses as well?..he won't get away that clean in the derby as well
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05-01-2019, 11:20 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: FL
Posts: 1,164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadVindication
Watching the Wood replay, I'm undecided whether Tax tired down the stretch or he just conceded when challenged. I'm thinking it's the latter. Anyone have an opinion?
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This Gargan talking about the stretch run.
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05-02-2019, 01:10 AM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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I like both Tacitus and Tax, and somewhat equally, but for completely different reasons, as they are completely at opposite ends of the spectrum really. That is clear just looking at their pedigrees. In the Wood only 3 horses did any running so for me, Tacitus beat 2 horses in the Wood, and one of them he didn't beat by a whole lot. What I did notice is Tax's high Bris speed rating at the age of 2, it was the highest of any horse on the trail at the time, and that was when he LOST. 40% win 100% ITM ------ I'm okay with Tax. Tacitus might be a better pick for the Derby esp. if it rains + Mott factor. I might use him somewhere.
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05-02-2019, 11:25 AM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
My opinion won't be popular but I'll give it. Tacitus was bearing inward on Tax so much there at the end, I thought he was going to knock Tax right into the rail.
If anything, to me, that speaks to a horse who is getting leg weary and is drifting. If the jockey was doing that "on purpose" then that should have been called out so I'm gonna assume it was Tacitus who was drifting in like that.
I'm not the only one who saw this and interpretted it like that. Some were even surprised the stewards did not get involved.
This was Tacitus' first race at 1-1/8.
Tax had already run 2 races at 1-1/8th and ran ITM. And ran ITM again here. So the idea of him being the leg weary one is preposterous to me.
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That's what it looks like. Tacitus didn't stay in his lane.
And that interview with Tax trainer, says he just wanted to send him out and avoid trouble and Tax got bumped around early and he just had enough by the end.
So yeah I'm partly thinking there's evidence Tax lacked some gumption needed for a race like the derby but despite being run down he held well. He didn't look tired so I think this is a horse with stamina for the race at least. And considering what you say about his bris fig and that he ran well in the longest prep routes bodes well. No reason to leave him out of a super.
Tacitus does have that long stride, which helps. But maybe that's something that can hide whether he does have that stamina capability, regardless if it's in his pedigree or no.
Last edited by MadVindication; 05-02-2019 at 11:26 AM.
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05-03-2019, 05:18 PM
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#41
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Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 687
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Taking another look at this one if the odds hold. I suspect my other picks ( , , ) get beat down.
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05-03-2019, 05:54 PM
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#42
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerocraft67
Taking another look at this one if the odds hold. I suspect my other picks ( , , ) get beat down.
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getting bet down, both at 5/1
is not getting any love, drifting upwards at 23/1
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-04-2019, 03:41 AM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadVindication
That's what it looks like. Tacitus didn't stay in his lane.
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I don't like horses who can't run straight. I got burned by that Classic Empire who ran 4th in Derby who couldn't run straight in Arkansas. If I were using either of these, that's where I'm putting them.
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05-04-2019, 01:57 PM
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#44
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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Tax at 35-1 is a must bet something horse.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-04-2019, 03:01 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
I don't like horses who can't run straight. I got burned by that Classic Empire who ran 4th in Derby who couldn't run straight in Arkansas. If I were using either of these, that's where I'm putting them.
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Yeah that's a point against Tacitus. Moreso I'm conflicted about him due to whether he'll have room to make his move, and how much ground he may lose to do it. But J Ortiz is sharp at least. Meh.
Tax will prob be fighting to keep the 3/4 lane.
I'm guessing if Vekoma is on the lead he'll be passed by someone on the inside on second turn. Passed for good.
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