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Old 06-24-2019, 04:19 PM   #76
Saratoga_Mike
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I checked out Beyer's opinion on this matter - he covers it in Beyer on Speed. As several of us have noted, the "sucked along" factor absolutely exists in harness racing. Beyer agrees. However, he does not believe it exists in t'bred racing. Therefore, he does not discount figs earned in a "sucked along" fashion. Perhaps he's changed his mind since the book was published, but I doubt it.
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Old 06-24-2019, 05:09 PM   #77
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Rarely is a horse not "used" early in a dirt race. They are usually running slower in the last part of the race compared to the first part of a race. While a horse may receive some benefit from running covered up not having the full force of the wind as a restriction it won't find some extra energy by virtue of racing against better.

I would opine the exact opposite of your theory. Horses under less stress are able to use their energy more efficiently and run faster. Many frontrunners, for example, run their fastest times when they are able to run loose on the lead with no stress. Those same frontrunners are usually unable to duplicate fast times when challenged for the lead.

Quit trying to compare humans in competition with horses in competition. Horses do not mentally prepare for competition the way humans do.
Mental preparation has nothing to do with this in human racing. It's a matter of pace dynamics.
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Old 06-24-2019, 05:50 PM   #78
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Rarely is a horse not "used" early in a dirt race. They are usually running slower in the last part of the race compared to the first part of a race. While a horse may receive some benefit from running covered up not having the full force of the wind as a restriction it won't find some extra energy by virtue of racing against better.

I agree that contenders typically try to get good position early or make a mid race move later trying to get into contention. That's how you usually win races.

However, let's say a rider lays back and decides to make one late run against better horses. That won't give him more energy. However, it could distribute his energy better than chasing them depending on the pace.

Those horses typically don't win unless the race collapses because they are positioned too far back turning for home (and overmatched), but they sometimes run faster than they would have in the typical race where they are used to get early position.
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Old 06-24-2019, 10:33 PM   #79
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I agree that contenders typically try to get good position early or make a mid race move later trying to get into contention. That's how you usually win races.

However, let's say a rider lays back and decides to make one late run against better horses. That won't give him more energy. However, it could distribute his energy better than chasing them depending on the pace.

Those horses typically don't win unless the race collapses because they are positioned too far back turning for home (and overmatched), but they sometimes run faster than they would have in the typical race where they are used to get early position.
Very few horses have the ability to change their natural running style. A natural frontrunner taken back will often expend much energy fighting the jockey resulting in a poorer than expected race. Yes, your scenario can happen, I just doubt that it happens very often.
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Old 06-24-2019, 10:59 PM   #80
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I see that a lot in the PPs.
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Old 06-25-2019, 12:54 PM   #81
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Very few horses have the ability to change their natural running style. A natural frontrunner taken back will often expend much energy fighting the jockey resulting in a poorer than expected race. Yes, your scenario can happen, I just doubt that it happens very often.
I agree that "rank" front runners are not a candidate.

It's usually a more versatile horse than can lay close and make a move in the middle of the race. If you try to make that middle move against better horses, you are pretty much screwed. If you lay back and make one run, you won't win, but you'll often finisher higher in the field and run a faster race.

Those are the horses that people play back off their figures.

In their next start if instead of making one late run they actually try to win, the effort in the middle of race causes the figure to drop a little.
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:24 PM   #82
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So, to summarize:

Let's say that a particular horse has run the best figures of the entire field in its last couple of races, but has done so while running "evenly", at the same class and distance as the horse is facing today. And the horse is being offered at an enticing betting price on the tote board. Does the steed deserve the discriminating bettor's confident win-wager...or do its lackluster running lines keep us sitting on our wallets?
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Old 06-25-2019, 03:54 PM   #83
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So, to summarize:

Let's say that a particular horse has run the best figures of the entire field in its last couple of races, but has done so while running "evenly", at the same class and distance as the horse is facing today. And the horse is being offered at an enticing betting price on the tote board. Does the steed deserve the discriminating bettor's confident win-wager...or do its lackluster running lines keep us sitting on our wallets?
Has the horse won in the past or does it show a herd mentality?
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Old 06-25-2019, 04:39 PM   #84
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So, to summarize:

Let's say that a particular horse has run the best figures of the entire field in its last couple of races, but has done so while running "evenly", at the same class and distance as the horse is facing today. And the horse is being offered at an enticing betting price on the tote board. Does the steed deserve the discriminating bettor's confident win-wager...or do its lackluster running lines keep us sitting on our wallets?
If by "evenly" you mean he sat at near the back of the pack and made no effort until they reached the top of stretch but then picked up tired horses, I would downgrade his figures a bit and go from there.

If he was used to get mid pack position early and then ran evenly after that, I'd take him more at face value.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:38 PM   #85
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So, to summarize:

Let's say that a particular horse has run the best figures of the entire field in its last couple of races, but has done so while running "evenly", at the same class and distance as the horse is facing today. And the horse is being offered at an enticing betting price on the tote board. Does the steed deserve the discriminating bettor's confident win-wager...or do its lackluster running lines keep us sitting on our wallets?
If his figure are the best in today's match up, and he was losing to horse running better figures, then I say the horse is certainly worth a bet. He is meeting lesser today. Lackluster is relative.
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Old 06-26-2019, 12:44 AM   #86
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Dear Andy,

I mean, Andrew,

How did it feel on Preakness Day when Mike Watchmaker made you look like an idiot after you derailed the podcast for 20 minutes ranting and raving about the Derby DQ like a facebook comment lunatic. When Mike finally got you to settle down and focus on the present instead of past, Mike picked WoW then you rambled another 20 about how horrible he was going to run. Thoughts?
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Old 06-26-2019, 01:04 PM   #87
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I think the tow-along element depends largely on surface and running style. I've seen completely outclassed grass horses with one even- gear lose by 6 lengths, yet run career figs. While front-running (or pace-oriented) dirt horses usually run far below their normal numbers when seriously over-matched.
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Old 06-26-2019, 01:10 PM   #88
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Has the horse won in the past or does it show a herd mentality?
I believe the "herd" instinct most factors in when a runner breaks far behind its field. So often it seems like the slow starter ( with the notable exceptions of sluggish closers and badly outclassed participants) hits a top speed seemingly beyond its ability, when desperate to join the field.
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Old 06-26-2019, 03:57 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
So, to summarize:

Let's say that a particular horse has run the best figures of the entire field in its last couple of races, but has done so while running "evenly", at the same class and distance as the horse is facing today. And the horse is being offered at an enticing betting price on the tote board. Does the steed deserve the discriminating bettor's confident win-wager...or do its lackluster running lines keep us sitting on our wallets?
Thaskalos

'Enticing' is a relative term.

Am I restricted to the high Beyers, or am I allowed to use other models (like video replay), as well?

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I think the tow-along element depends largely on surface and running style. I've seen completely outclassed grass horses with one even- gear lose by 6 lengths, yet run career figs. While front-running (or pace-oriented) dirt horses usually run far below their normal numbers when seriously over-matched.
Dirt seems to expose the 'scrubs' more than Turf.

I don't know the 'herd' stuff. Very few horses are able to win on their own, and I'm hoping to find one at a value. If you were strictly figure based, you'd have to adjust for the herd and the surface...
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Old 06-26-2019, 05:15 PM   #90
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I believe the "herd" instinct most factors in when a runner breaks far behind its field. So often it seems like the slow starter ( with the notable exceptions of sluggish closers and badly outclassed participants) hits a top speed seemingly beyond its ability, when desperate to join the field.
In my view, a herd horse is one that is most content running within a pack of horses. The alpha horse is the one who always wants to lead the pack. A herd horse can have the physical talent of a champion but can lose to inferior horses who are alpha horses. They have the ability to run with any pack securing higher speed figs while running with high quality horses and getting lower figs while running with lower quality horses.

I had no idea how strong these traits were in horses until I spent considerable time with a horse trainer. Not a TB horse trainer but a mustang trainer.
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