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03-15-2019, 06:37 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Reducing # of bets to improve ROI
this is what has worked for me
making a much, much smaller no. of bets
betting only when I have a very strong opinion
an alternative is betting much smaller when you don't have a strong opinion
is it less fun?
maybe
but, to me, making a fistful of bets and coming away negative most of the time is no fun at all
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03-15-2019, 10:12 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 125
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Amen! Arnold Rothstein in Boardwalk Empire said it best and I try to follow it, but it is hard lol!
I agree with you 1000%!
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03-15-2019, 10:33 AM
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#3
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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While there are occasions when a false heavy favorite, or a complete lack of standouts call for a spread or an 'all', ...
I find that my best play comes from a very straight, direct, 'surgical' approach.
Having an 'opinion' is the basis for the play in the first place. In most situations, I find that making a direct bet of my opinion is the highest ROI.
I can always start with the minimum allowed wager size, and if that is working as a profit, begin incrementally increasing that wager.
$2 win , $3win ...
$0.50 Tri , $1 Tri etc...
Or - If I'm losing and going for entertainment, a minimum wager for all races that I can come up with some semblance of opinion, other than say the 'Feature Race' where I bet $10 or $20 or $50 or whatever... Save some money for a slice of pizza
Or - If I'm highly rebated for a volume of high 'churn', then it's a different animal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cice
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Great clip. An 'opportunist'.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 03-15-2019 at 10:36 AM.
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03-15-2019, 10:45 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Shoving as much money through the windows as possible while getting a good rebate can boost your bottom line. Do you want to bet $100,000 per year and make a 5% profit after rebate -- $5,000. Or do you want to bet $200,000,000 per year and make 1% after rebate?
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03-15-2019, 11:02 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Shoving as much money through the windows as possible while getting a good rebate can boost your bottom line. Do you want to bet $100,000 per year and make a 5% profit after rebate -- $5,000. Or do you want to bet $200,000,000 per year and make 1% after rebate?
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good point, except I won't play the overseas books offering rebates which is potentially illegal in the U.S.
too many stipulations and I don't trust them
I've personally had problems with them in the past and there are lots of stories out there
your experience may be more favorable
also, if you're betting gigantic sums as indicated you still would have to beat the public by somewhere about 12 -15% to have a profit - and throwing that much money out there, I don't think I could do that. the public is generally not stupid about their bets
Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-15-2019 at 11:05 AM.
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03-15-2019, 11:18 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Houston Tx.
Posts: 3,130
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I believe that only 22 states allow online gambling on horse racing.
So many of us don't have a legal option to get rebates.
Since I began betting my DDs cold, I hit less doubles but my ROI has improved.
In exactas I bet only a two horse box. If I can't narrow my picks down to two horses,
I don't bet.
Staying away from trifectas and superfectas has saved me lots of cash.
For a two to three hundred-dollar a day bettor less combos is better.
__________________
Laboratory rats are susceptible to drug addiction, obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer.
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03-15-2019, 11:41 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
good point, except I won't play the overseas books offering rebates which is potentially illegal in the U.S.
too many stipulations and I don't trust them
I've personally had problems with them in the past and there are lots of stories out there
your experience may be more favorable
also, if you're betting gigantic sums as indicated you still would have to beat the public by somewhere about 12 -15% to have a profit - and throwing that much money out there, I don't think I could do that. the public is generally not stupid about their bets
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As you bet more, it is likely more rebates will be offered to you.
Plenty of ADWs that offer rebates in the U.S.
It is not easy. It is not impossible, either.
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03-15-2019, 11:42 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY
I believe that only 22 states allow online gambling on horse racing.
So many of us don't have a legal option to get rebates.
Since I began betting my DDs cold, I hit less doubles but my ROI has improved.
In exactas I bet only a two horse box. If I can't narrow my picks down to two horses,
I don't bet.
Staying away from trifectas and superfectas has saved me lots of cash.
For a two to three hundred-dollar a day bettor less combos is better.
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If you can't get rebates then betting less seems like a good strategy.
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03-15-2019, 12:08 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,974
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WOW! I’m surprised this sort of topic even has to be raised?
I was always under the impression that one of the most important factors to long term success in this game is being selective!
Pretty much just common sense if you ask me.
Another secret to improving your ROI (assuming the selection is strong) is to bet MORE when the odds are HIGH and bet LESS when they’re LOW.
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03-15-2019, 12:23 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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I think a lot of people know it but don't do it.
that's why I posted
to say that it has worked for me
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03-15-2019, 01:56 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,567
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There can be no question that reducing our bets will improve our ROI. And, for about 99% of us, eliminating our wagers altogether will improve our bottom line further still. And the same theory applies in reverse. For 99% of us...INCREASING the number of our bets will cause our LOSSES to increase...often beyond control. This proliferation in the number of different wagers in this game is a well-thought-out plan of the track to entice the horseplayer into wagering on every race on the card. No suitable win-bet in the race? No problem...let's just box or wheel and backwheel a few horses in the exacta...or the trifecta. We have a win-bet but the odds are unappetizing short? Why pass the race...when we can use this "sure thing" as an anchor in the upcoming pick-3...or the pick-4? The race is completely indecipherable and we are thinking of grabbing a sandwich instead? We can easily do that while also pressing the "all-button"...in pursuit of the big longshot that triggers those huge horizontal wager payoffs that we salivate after.
The racetrack keeps making it as hard as possible for the horseplayer to remain disciplined in this game...and the horseplayer must keep reminding himself that discipline is his most potent weapon in this game. This is what it all boils down to...IMO.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 03-15-2019 at 02:08 PM.
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03-15-2019, 03:35 PM
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#12
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Only part of Arnold Rothstein's representation by the character in the "Boardwalk Empire" series clip that I disagree with is the 'betting it all' part.
You may be surprised with some decent hits from simply 'playing your opinion', and even if you strikeout, you can still pay the electric bill.
If you do well, incrementally increase the minimums.
Wager Cost bolded
2019-02-26
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Sunland Park
7
Superfecta
$0.20
5 + 6 / 5 + 6 / 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 / 4
$1.20
$49.84
2019-01-12
...
Bet
Gulfstream
8
Double
$1.00
2 + 4 / 4
$2.00
$43.40
2019-02-13
...
Bet
Sam Houston
5
Superfecta
$0.10
4 / 2 + 6 / 2 + 3 + 6 / 3 + 8
$0.60
$22.22
2019-02-09
...
Bet
Mahoning Valley
3
Superfecta
$0.10
1 + 2 + 3 / 1 + 2 + 3 / 1 + 2 + 3 / 5 + 6
$1.20
$23.16
2019-02-06
...
Bet
Gulfstream
6
Superfecta
$0.10
6 / 3 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 / 3 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 / 1
$1.20
$24.98
2019-02-15
...
Bet
Delta Downs
7
Exacta
$1.00
6 + 8 / 7
$2.00
$136.10
2019-02-25
...
Mahoning Valley
5
Superfecta
$0.10
2 + 3 + 4 + 7 / 5 / 2 + 3 + 4 + 7 / 8
$1.20
$36.89
2018-03-14
...
Bet
Gulfstream
6
Pick-3
$0.50
2 + 3 + 8 / 7 / 2
$1.50
$28.35
2018-07-18
...
Bet
Del Mar
1
Trifecta
$0.50
5 + 6 / 1 + 6 + 7 / 2
$2.50
$181.50
2019-01-13
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Gulfstream
9
Win
$1.00
5
$1.00
$5.70
2018-11-16
...
Bet
Del Mar
5
Pick-3
$0.50
1 + 5 + 6 / 4 + 5 + 6 / 1
$4.50
$137.80
2018-07-14
...
Bet
Delaware Park
9
Trifecta
$0.50
3 + 6 / 2 / 1 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 9
$5.00
$100.15
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 03-15-2019 at 03:38 PM.
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03-15-2019, 06:02 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
We have a win-bet but the odds are unappetizing short?
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I've seen it quite a few times and its almost comical.
A very strong fave is about 1/2
So, a lot of geniuses think putting the fave on top of the 2nd fave in the exacta will cure the problem - and some even bet others under the fave
so what happens - the fave wins with the 2nd fave underneath
and guess what - it pays less than what a win bet on the fave would have paid
seriously, you couldn't dream up this stuff
Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-15-2019 at 06:03 PM.
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03-15-2019, 11:43 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
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03-16-2019, 12:19 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
WOW! I’m surprised this sort of topic even has to be raised?
I was always under the impression that one of the most important factors to long term success in this game is being selective!
Pretty much just common sense if you ask me.
Another secret to improving your ROI (assuming the selection is strong) is to bet MORE when the odds are HIGH and bet LESS when they’re LOW.
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That about sums up my approach.
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