Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - Computers


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 7 votes, 5.00 average.
Old 03-21-2017, 03:11 PM   #361
LottaKash
Registered User
 
LottaKash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 6,843
Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor View Post
By far the best book I have ever found for those who would like to learn basic programming skills, have little or no previous experience, and (usually) fall asleep listening to some bozo blahblahblah on YouTube:

"Practical Programming, 2nd Edition


Best of all, you can download a pdf version FREE, from:

http://it-ebooks.info/book/3751/
Thx Traynor, you have piqued my curiosity about this...I think that I will finally get involved with this one...
__________________
.
"Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV)
LottaKash is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2017, 07:42 PM   #362
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
Quote:
Originally Posted by LottaKash View Post
Thx Traynor, you have piqued my curiosity about this...I think that I will finally get involved with this one...
Good luck!
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 12:04 PM   #363
Murph
Public Handicapper
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,450
Profitable Strategies in Horse Race Betting Markets

http://www.ms.unimelb.edu.au/documen...AlexThesis.pdf

October 18, 2013
"Abstract:
In this paper we discuss a way to construct a strategy of betting that can generate abnormal returns in horse race betting markets. Using the theory of discrete choice models and Generalised Additive Models one can build a model to predict the probability of a given horse winning a given race. The paper further discusses the Kelly betting system as a way of exploiting estimates of winning probabilities so to generate abnormal returns."

Recent research led me to click on the above document and I decided to share it here. The formulas are way above my pay grade but I grasp some of the theory and why these calculations may be made in real life applications. It seems there are very many. I reviewed to page 30 before moving to the applied theory in Chapter 11.

I cannot tell if we are still on the hampster wheel with these ideas or not. I thought some folks here might be interested in taking a look.
Murph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 09:52 PM   #364
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
Quote:
Originally Posted by Murph View Post
http://www.ms.unimelb.edu.au/documen...AlexThesis.pdf

October 18, 2013
"Abstract:
In this paper we discuss a way to construct a strategy of betting that can generate abnormal returns in horse race betting markets. Using the theory of discrete choice models and Generalised Additive Models one can build a model to predict the probability of a given horse winning a given race. The paper further discusses the Kelly betting system as a way of exploiting estimates of winning probabilities so to generate abnormal returns."

Recent research led me to click on the above document and I decided to share it here. The formulas are way above my pay grade but I grasp some of the theory and why these calculations may be made in real life applications. It seems there are very many. I reviewed to page 30 before moving to the applied theory in Chapter 11.

I cannot tell if we are still on the hampster wheel with these ideas or not. I thought some folks here might be interested in taking a look.
I wouldn't quit my day job over this. Someone else may find gold in it. All I see is a a somewhat inept thesis based on supposed "fluctuations in betting patterns" in 100 UK races. Most of the rest of it is window dressing to dazzle the beancounters and number crunchers.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 10:01 PM   #365
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
Page 52:
"We now wish to utilise the theory we have previously discussed in the context of the
problem of producing abnormal returns in a horse race betting market. Our application
will be purely focussed on the first task of finding estimates for the probabilities of victory
for given horses in a particular race. The data we use is somewhat contrived: it consists
of one hundred races where in each race there is exactly ten horses (not necessarily the
same horses appear in every race, however) 9. For each horse j in race i there are certain
characteristics associated with them. These include:
Their closing odds (i.e. the odds set at the start of the race) (a)
The days since their last first placing in a race (b)
The logarithm of their track probability, adjusted for the bookmaker's margin (c)
Some unknown variable (this particular variable's origin was not made clear to the
reader! (d)"

Last edited by traynor; 03-30-2017 at 10:04 PM.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-01-2017, 03:56 AM   #366
Murph
Public Handicapper
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,450
Thank you for your comment Traynor, maybe it will save someone some wasted time. I may never learn.
Murph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2017, 02:50 PM   #367
HandiTrack
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Chicago
Posts: 11
I highly recommend python for anyone looking for a straightforward language without any super crazy syntax nuances I am self-taught and I have coded several programs for work and home use (including my own little handicapping program).
HandiTrack is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-07-2017, 12:07 AM   #368
AltonKelsey
Veteran
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor View Post
I wouldn't quit my day job over this. Someone else may find gold in it. All I see is a a somewhat inept thesis based on supposed "fluctuations in betting patterns" in 100 UK races. Most of the rest of it is window dressing to dazzle the beancounters and number crunchers.

Speechless. Would you give the author $100 and expect to get it back after a day or a week of betting?
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2019, 07:47 PM   #369
Actor
Librocubicularist
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Ohio
Posts: 10,466
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote View Post
Here is basic language code for Dick Mitchell's "Positive Expectation Handicapping" software. I believe this was in one of his books.
It's from Mitchell's A Winning Thoroughbred Strategy, not to be confused with Winning Thoroughbred Strategies also by Mitchell. Hard to come by these days.

https://www.amazon.com/A-Winning-Tho...r=1-1-fkmrnull
__________________
Sapere aude
Actor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:44 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.