*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[Winger]

Best Bets:
FON-8 Powered By Lionel (6/1)
GGX-7 Grand Palais (2/1)
SUN-9 Infinite Bull (4/1)

Long Shots:
AQU-9 Double Mac (8/1)
LSP-3 My Favorite Stone (8/1)
LSP-4 Scorpian Jack (15/1)
PRX-9 :1A: Northern Mine (10/1)
SUN-6 Andele Sunrise (10/1)
GGX-2 Sea of Magic (12/1)

EP Type/Late Pace Method Testing:
EMD-1 Trygves Besst (2/1)
GGX-2 Sea of Magic (12/1)
GGX-8 Union Wine (4/1)
GPX-10 Starship Hostility (2/1)
LRL-6 Sams Melody (9/2)
TAM-8 Bright Blue (3/1)
TUP-8 Doberge (4/1)

Other Plays:
FON-8 Exacta Box - ,
GGX-7 Double - /
LSP-3 Double - /
SUN-9 Double - /
TUP-4 Double - /

Added a missed horse, and fixed the LSP double.

[NorCalGreg]

This looks better--my 50% method is firing on all cylinders today. It's extremely difficult to hit 50% winners--and show a profit.

Not trying to be funny but think about it. HALF OF YOUR PICKS HAVE TO WIN. Not that hard is it? Favorites win about 35%--so what's the big deal about hitting a few more than that?

Trust me, it's a big deal. Posting in advance means you are, in a sense--betting in advance. You don't get any of the on-site real-time advantages...and furthermore, it's impossible to predict the actual favorite every race. That's why those touts that give out nothing but chalk, do so poorly with their selections.



*EMD

4TH #6 OUR CLEMENTINE ~ 2-1 ➡ 5.80

8TH #3 PERHAPS A PIE ~ 3-1 ❌


*GGF

7TH #3 TRUE IMAGE ~ 9/5 ➡ $5.60


*SUN

6TH #4 HIDE THE GOOD STUFF ~ 5/2 ➡ $3.20

7TH #6 BEAUMONT TIME ~ 5/2 ➡ $4.60


*PARX

2ND #5 CASANOVA WAY ~ 4-1 ❌

4TH #6 BRIDGET MALONEY ~ 2-1 ➡ $2.80

5TH #1 GYPSY FIRE ~ 5/2 ➡ $4.20

6TH #3 DISTINCT DIVA ~ 4-1 ➡ $5.40

8TH #4 CUADRANTE ~ 8/5 ➡ $2.80


*LRC

6TH #4 HE'S A REAL KEEPER ~ 9/5 ❌

7TH #2 SPICY BLONDE ~ 8-1 ❌

--SPICY BLONDE wasn't a qualified pick--just looked like a solid wager I put in to try to increase the ROI...Spicy ran 3rd. -- Still counts.

*yesterday 0 for 3
*today 8 for 12
+$44.00


🎲NCG[/QUOTE]

[Winger]

Originally Posted by Winger

Best Bets:
FON-8 Powered By Lionel (6/1) 2nd
GGX-7 Grand Palais (2/1) OOM
SUN-9 Infinite Bull (4/1) OOM

Long Shots:
AQU-9 Double Mac (8/1) OOM
LSP-3 My Favorite Stone (8/1) OOM
LSP-4 Scorpian Jack (15/1) OOM
PRX-9 :1A: Northern Mine (10/1) OOM
SUN-6 Andele Sunrise (10/1) OOM
GGX-2 Sea of Magic (12/1) 1st... 23.20

EP Type/Late Pace Method Testing:
EMD-1 Trygves Besst (2/1) 2nd
GGX-2 Sea of Magic (12/1) 1st... 23.20
GGX-8 Union Wine (4/1) OOM
GPX-10 Starship Hostility (2/1) 1st... 4.00
LRL-6 Sams Melody (9/2) 3rd
TAM-8 Bright Blue (3/1) 2nd
TUP-8 Doberge (4/1) 3rd

Other Plays:
FON-8 Exacta Box - , Scratched
GGX-7 Double - / Loser
LSP-3 Double - / Loser
SUN-9 Double - / Loser
TUP-4 Double - / Scratched

Added a missed horse, and fixed the LSP double.

Through 15 Days:
Best Bets: 17/52 - 32.7% ROI= $1.17 Average Mutual= $7.15
Long Shots: 10/52 - 19.2% ROI= $1.94 Average Mutual= $20.16
EP/Late: 6/17 - 35.3% ROI= $2.67 Average Mutual= $15.13

[Winger]

Best Bets:
PRX-5 Kitty Ride (4/1)
WRD-10 West Place (7/2)

Long Shots:
FLX-7 Its Macaroni (10/1)
WRD-4 Everybody Wants Me (12/1)

EP Type/Late Pace:
PRX-3 IT Girl (5/2)
PRX-7 Rare Medal (9/2)

Exotics:
WRD-9 Double - /

[pandy]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

This looks better--my 50% method is firing on all cylinders today. It's extremely difficult to hit 50% winners--and show a profit.

Not trying to be funny but think about it. HALF OF YOUR PICKS HAVE TO WIN. Not that hard is it? Favorites win about 35%--so what's the big deal about hitting a few more than that?

Trust me, it's a big deal. Posting in advance means you are, in a sense--betting in advance. You don't get any of the on-site real-time advantages...and furthermore, it's impossible to predict the actual favorite every race. That's why those touts that give out nothing but chalk, do so poorly with their selections.



*EMD

4TH #6 OUR CLEMENTINE ~ 2-1 ➡ 5.80

8TH #3 PERHAPS A PIE ~ 3-1 ❌


*GGF

7TH #3 TRUE IMAGE ~ 9/5 ➡ $5.60


*SUN

6TH #4 HIDE THE GOOD STUFF ~ 5/2 ➡ $3.20

7TH #6 BEAUMONT TIME ~ 5/2 ➡ $4.60


*PARX

2ND #5 CASANOVA WAY ~ 4-1 ❌

4TH #6 BRIDGET MALONEY ~ 2-1 ➡ $2.80

5TH #1 GYPSY FIRE ~ 5/2 ➡ $4.20

6TH #3 DISTINCT DIVA ~ 4-1 ➡ $5.40

8TH #4 CUADRANTE ~ 8/5 ➡ $2.80


*LRC

6TH #4 HE'S A REAL KEEPER ~ 9/5 ❌

7TH #2 SPICY BLONDE ~ 8-1 ❌

--SPICY BLONDE wasn't a qualified pick--just looked like a solid wager I put in to try to increase the ROI...Spicy ran 3rd. -- Still counts.

*yesterday 0 for 3
*today 8 for 12
+$44.00


🎲NCG

[/QUOTE]


It's easier to pick winning favorites at some tracks. Generally, the better the quality of racing stock, the tougher it is to win betting favorites. Of course the problem with some of these smaller tracks, let's say that you can hit 50% at Finger Lakes and make a small profit, you can't make big bets to increase the profit because the pools are too small.

[NorCalGreg]

I'm not just playing favorites pandy----I used that example because someone is going to say "50% winners? -big deal"

I look for a particular horse--then screen it for probability--without ever looking at a ML. They go off at short prices because they aren't a mystery to anyone.

The trick is to be able to decide if the horse is right, in this race, against this competition. Isn't that what we do everyday?

[NorCalGreg]

Actually have a Thistledown horse today---not really sure where that is. Could be Cleveland...but Thistledown doesn't sound very "Cleveland"

*PRX

1ST #6 LX SUNRISE ~ 3-1

5TH #6 KITTY RIDE ~ 4-1

6TH --ENTRY 1-1A ~ 4-1 (either or--if Serey scratches one--he fully intends to win with the survivor)

7TH #2 SUPERLING ~ 5/2

9TH #2 SALTY'S HERO ~ 2-1


*TLD

6TH #2 ARKY BILL ~ 6-1



✨NCG

[NorCalGreg]

EARLY/LATE

PRX 8TH #3 DAN'S GIRL 10-1

MNR 5TH #5 LAST TEARS 8-1

TUP 2ND #6 NOBLE MOJAVE 8-1


HORSES W/A CHANCE TO WIRE


TUP 7TH #1 INITIATIVE 20-1

TUP 8TH #3 MADDIE'S GOLD 20-1

WRD 4TH #1 EVERYBODY WANTS ME 12-1

MNR 9TH #3 JOVAN'S REPORT 12-1




BEST EXACTA PLAY

WRD 10TH - and reverse them


good luck today


-NCG☮

[green80]

Originally Posted by Winger

Through 15 Days:
Best Bets: 17/52 - 32.7% ROI= $1.17 Average Mutual= $7.15
Long Shots: 10/52 - 19.2% ROI= $1.94 Average Mutual= $20.16
EP/Late: 6/17 - 35.3% ROI= $2.67 Average Mutual= $15.13

Winger, You had a good week, even on the weekend. Keep it up.

[appistappis]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

EARLY/LATE

PRX 8TH #3 DAN'S GIRL 10-1

MNR 5TH #5 LAST TEARS 8-1

TUP 2ND #6 NOBLE MOJAVE 8-1


HORSES W/A CHANCE TO WIRE


TUP 7TH #1 INITIATIVE 20-1

TUP 8TH #3 MADDIE'S GOLD 20-1

WRD 4TH #1 EVERYBODY WANTS ME 12-1

MNR 9TH #3 JOVAN'S REPORT 12-1




BEST EXACTA PLAY

WRD 10TH - and reverse them


good luck today


-NCG☮

nobody wiring at tp today

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by appistappis

nobody wiring at tp today

Some unusual stuff going on everywhere today--with bombs bursting in air.

TUP is where I normally "get well" --not today.

My 50% Method hit 4 of 5 yesterday @ Parx ...I used the EXACT SAME METHOD WITH EXACT SAME SCREEN ...and went 0 for 5 today.

[Winger]

Originally Posted by Winger

Best Bets:
PRX-5 Kitty Ride (4/1) 2nd
WRD-10 West Place (7/2) 1st...9.20

Long Shots:
FLX-7 Its Macaroni (10/1) 3rd
WRD-4 Everybody Wants Me (12/1) OOM

EP Type/Late Pace:
PRX-3 IT Girl (5/2) 2nd
PRX-7 Rare Medal (9/2) 3rd

Exotics:
WRD-9 Double - / 3rd/1st

Today wasn't fun. I made 11 bets today. 10 hit the board, but only 1 won.

[Winger]

Best Bets:
None

Long Shots:
WRD-9 Why Smile (8/1)

EP/Late:
WRD-1 Fleet Talkn Miss (5/1)

Exotics:
None

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Actually have a Thistledown horse today---not really sure where that is. Could be Cleveland...but Thistledown doesn't sound very "Cleveland"

*PRX

1ST #6 LX SUNRISE ~ 3-1

5TH #6 KITTY RIDE ~ 4-1

6TH --ENTRY 1-1A ~ 4-1 (either or--if Serey scratches one--he fully intends to win with the survivor)

7TH #2 SUPERLING ~ 5/2

9TH #2 SALTY'S HERO ~ 2-1


*TLD

6TH #2 ARKY BILL ~ 6-1



✨NCG

-Feast or famine---that's all I can say. Horse betting is mainly frustration and humiliation....with the dizzying heights of sheer joy when winning --those brief moments are what sustain us.

6 horses from my 50% method went to post...not a single one came through. That's about as far away from 50% as possible.

*0 for 6 on the day
*8 for 21 total
*bankroll -$76.00

Just 3 today...

PRX 1ST #3 ALICE ROADTRAIN 4-1

WRD 2ND #1 SIR MUNNINGS 2-1

WRD 7TH #1 ESCORT 9/5

[NorCalGreg]

Took a look @ Indiana Grand this morning...some potential there


*IND

2ND #2 BLACK DIAMOND GIRL 10-1

4TH EX BOX -

5TH EX BOX -

7TH #3 RED HOT SUZY 6-1


*PRX

7TH #2 THUNDER LORD 8-1

8TH EX BOX -

8TH TRI





*WRD

5TH EX BOX


*TUP

3RD EX BOX


4TH #2 KRISPY PRINCESS 20-1 ❇ best bet ❇


7TH EX KEY BOX W/

8TH EX BOX


♣ NCG