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01-21-2019, 08:41 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Question about ROI and and percentages and post position
Hello,
If anyone can help me, I sure would appreciate it. Large samples only.
The question in races that contain exactly 12 runners in dirt sprint races only
Which post position has the best ROI? The worst? What about percentage of wins?
Thanks in advance
Allan
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01-21-2019, 09:01 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
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Code:
POST return
1 -30.68%
2 -37.33%
3 -28.51%
4 -33.02%
5 -30.12%
6 -27.03%
7 -25.36%
8 -31.53%
9 -21.67%
10 -20.40%
11 -29.12%
12 -22.30%
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01-21-2019, 09:05 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
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Code:
POST win pct
1 8.46%
2 7.66%
3 7.62%
4 8.43%
5 8.15%
6 8.27%
7 8.02%
8 8.00%
9 8.60%
10 8.77%
11 8.91%
12 9.47%
Since 1/1/08 - 11,816 races
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01-21-2019, 09:17 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
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Code:
year CountOfRACE NO
2008 1705
2009 1840
2010 1697
2011 1264
2012 1027
2013 886
2014 681
2015 827
2016 725
2017 615
2018 529
2019 20
Used to love those big fields. Not a lot of them anymore.
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01-21-2019, 11:07 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
Code:
POST return
1 -30.68%
2 -37.33%
3 -28.51%
4 -33.02%
5 -30.12%
6 -27.03%
7 -25.36%
8 -31.53%
9 -21.67%
10 -20.40%
11 -29.12%
12 -22.30%
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What about ordering it as:
Outside Post
Second to Outside Post
Third to Outside Post
......
Also, adding win percentage
Thanks
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
Last edited by Wizard of Odds; 01-21-2019 at 11:08 AM.
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01-21-2019, 11:13 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
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These are all 12 horse fields so #12 is outside etc.
The win pcts are in the next post.
These are not exacting calculations. I have not tried to exclude entries so some of the time you get paid when the other half wins.
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01-21-2019, 02:07 PM
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#7
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,819
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Are you lumping all distances and surfaces together?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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01-21-2019, 03:32 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
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Dirt sprint 12 horse fields
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01-21-2019, 03:53 PM
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#9
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,819
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 RIF - I should try it sometime! 
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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01-21-2019, 04:37 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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The tilt towards the outside posts, after 11,000+ races, has to be more than coincidental. That is some tasty info.
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01-21-2019, 05:27 PM
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#11
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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See what happens if you cross-reference post positions with running style. (i.e. Early Speed Points)
Every study I've ever done with track-specific posts has show that those go together.
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01-22-2019, 11:42 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Thanks for the information.
Sorta what I thought.
9% from 12. Wow.
Allan
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01-22-2019, 05:24 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
See what happens if you cross-reference post positions with running style. (i.e. Early Speed Points)
Every study I've ever done with track-specific posts has show that those go together.
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Great suggestion. I love speed coming from the middle in large fields. Have no stats to support it, but when I see THE speed coming out of 5,6,7, at 5 1/2 to 6 1/2, I work a little harder on that race.
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01-22-2019, 05:27 PM
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#14
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Great suggestion. I love speed coming from the middle in large fields. Have no stats to support it, but when I see THE speed coming out of 5,6,7, at 5 1/2 to 6 1/2, I work a little harder on that race.
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Tell me why you intuitively think this way....
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01-22-2019, 05:38 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Tell me why you intuitively think this way....
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I'm glad you worded it this way, because, like I said, I don't have any stats to back it up, and I haven't really leaned back and closed my eyes and contemplated why it would be. It's nothing more than 30+ years ago I caught a couple wire jobs under this scenario, and since then I've looked for that same scenario, and seemingly the horse in the middle of the field that caught my eye has busted out to the front often enough for it to have made a significant impression on me.
Sorry, not a lot of science to it, and really nothing more than that. Admittedly, I could be fooling myself.
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