Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by aaron

Has a Triple Crown Horse ever not won HOY ?

yes, Omaha.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Let's suppose Justify loses the Preakness by a nose.

Now who gets HOTY, him or Accelerate?

So basically running a half length faster made the difference?

I don't see why not? Isn't winning races in a game fashion a quality? Big margins are sometimes the mark of greatness, more often the mark of poor fields behind you.

Now go read my post in the roulette bet thread to see where you erred.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Let's suppose Justify loses the Preakness by a nose.

Now who gets HOTY, him or Accelerate?

So basically running a half length faster made the difference?

Good point.
Accelerate,probably by a landslide.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

This is the subjective part. There are no guidelines sent with the ballot. One person sees the Triple Crown as JV quality, others see it as the pinnacle of the sport. I'm somewhat torn on my vote. But the more I look at the quality of the competition Accelerate beat, including in the Classic, I think he might be fool's gold. The only horse he beat all year that was G1 quality in my opinion was City of Light, and that one was in a race much too far for that horse.

That's kind of where I am also.

The people that are in favor of Accelerate getting it are building their case partly on the fact that they think the 3yo crop was so weak. IMO, it was weak But so was the older male division that Accelerate had such a great year in. The best horse he faced was probably City of Light and they split. West Coast is not the same horse he was. Dr Door, Pavel, Mubtaahij, Gunnevera etc... are not high level Grade 1 competition imo.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't see why not? Isn't winning races in a game fashion a quality? Big margins are sometimes the mark of greatness, more often the mark of poor fields behind you.

Now go read my post in the roulette bet thread to see where you erred.

I thought it was valid so I didn't post a response.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's kind of where I am also.

The people that are in favor of Accelerate getting it are building their case partly on the fact that they think the 3yo crop was so weak. IMO, it was weak But so was the older male division that Accelerate had such a great year in. The best horse he faced was probably City of Light and they split. West Coast is not the same horse he was. Dr Door, Pavel, Mubtaahij, Gunnevera etc... are not high level Grade 1 competition imo.

I don't think that's the main issue.

The main issue is Accelerate had a classic HOTY season, winning a bunch of major stakes at 1 1/4 miles including the BC Classic. Justify was a 6 race 5 month flash in the pan who never faced an older horse.

No horse with Justify's record would ever beat a horse with Accelerate's, except for the fact that Justify's 6 wins against 3 year olds include three specific races.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

You just excluded pretty much all three year olds and female horses.

Except for the real good ones that are worthy of this top honor.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I don't think that's the main issue.

The main issue is Accelerate had a classic HOTY season, winning a bunch of major stakes at 1 1/4 miles including the BC Classic. Justify was a 6 race 5 month flash in the pan who never faced an older horse.

No horse with Justify's record would ever beat a horse with Accelerate's, except for the fact that Justify's 6 wins against 3 year olds include three specific races.

It depends on what one believes are the most important races. To the non-racing fan the only races they care or even know about are the Kentucky Derby and the other TC races. To those that are knowledgeable fans of the sport they believe that racing is more than a 6 week a year sport and place greater value on Gr1 wins in open competition throughout the year with special emphasis on the BC Classic.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Let's suppose Justify loses the Preakness by a nose.

Now who gets HOTY, him or Accelerate?

So basically running a half length faster made the difference?

that nose means an awful lot historically speaking. many others have lost a TC race by a nose, thats why winning all three is special.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Except for the real good ones that are worthy of this top honor.

I would argue there has never been a 3 year old or female horse who as stated had a campaign "competed in open races to all comers"

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

It depends on what one believes are the most important races. To the non-racing fan the only races they care or even know about are the Kentucky Derby and the other TC races. To those that are knowledgeable fans of the sport they believe that racing is more than a 6 week a year sport and place greater value on Gr1 wins in open competition throughout the year with special emphasis on the BC Classic.

The problem with that argument is we don't treat the 3 year old classics as more important than the handicaps and the BC Classic unless a horse wins all 3, and then, suddenly, we treat them as the most important thing in the world.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

that nose means an awful lot historically speaking. many others have lost a TC race by a nose, thats why winning all three is special.

Real Quiet comes to mind in 1998....

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The problem with that argument is we don't treat the 3 year old classics as more important than the handicaps and the BC Classic unless a horse wins all 3, and then, suddenly, we treat them as the most important thing in the world.

I don't buy that. Check 1999, 2001, and 2014 HOY winners.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't buy that. Check 1999, 2001, and 2014 HOY winners.

A horse with Accelerate's record would have won those years.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

A horse with Accelerate's record would have won those years.

Probably, as the division had actual competition. This year did not IMO. The "G1" group of older males was as bad or worse than the 3yo group.