Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-28-2020, 08:33 AM   #1
Harmonicaslim
Registered User
 
Harmonicaslim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Castleton, VA
Posts: 135
3 profound quotes on the importance of value...

"Most of us who win at the races do so with overlays"

Tom Ainslie

"We will lose more races than we win. When we win, we should be rewarded."

Barry Meadow

"I can get even money from a change machine."

Tom
Harmonicaslim is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 08:52 AM   #2
Partsnut
BetMix User
 
Partsnut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posts: 1,108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harmonicaslim View Post
"Most of us who win at the races do so with overlays"

Tom Ainslie

"We will lose more races than we win. When we win, we should be rewarded."

Barry Meadow

"I can get even money from a change machine."

Tom
"I can get even money from a change machine."

I don't think so,
A change machine is a break even event.
What you put in is what you get out.
Even money gets you back an additional $1.00 for each $1.00.
Tell me where I can find a change machine where I put in $1.00 and get $2,00 back and I'll be there all day and night,
__________________
partsnut@yahoo.com
Partsnut is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 08:57 AM   #3
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harmonicaslim View Post
"Most of us who win at the races do so with overlays"

Tom Ainslie

"We will lose more races than we win. When we win, we should be rewarded."

Barry Meadow

"I can get even money from a change machine."

Tom


"Odds and you, against any two."
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 11:13 AM   #4
sharkey11
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
some change machines take a percentage of your change too
sharkey11 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 12:17 PM   #5
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harmonicaslim View Post
"Most of us who win at the races do so with overlays"

Tom Ainslie

"We will lose more races than we win. When we win, we should be rewarded."

Barry Meadow

"I can get even money from a change machine."

Tom
I think we can all agree on the importance of value. The problem is identifying value.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 01:23 PM   #6
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
I think we can all agree on the importance of value. The problem is identifying value.
And RETAINING the identified value throughout the race.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 01:26 PM   #7
xtb
Ultra MAGA "Gun Bitch"
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Western NY
Posts: 5,239
One person's underlay is another person's overlay, and vice versa.
xtb is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 02:10 PM   #8
JohnGalt1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,230
Didn't Jay Cronley at the end of all his columns write "There is value in all winners?"
JohnGalt1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 02:16 PM   #9
Half Smoke
Registered User
 
Half Smoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,269
...........................




not a man alive can pay the bills on 4/5




but on the other hand:




better a short price than a long face




quote - Howard Sartin -





every winner is an overlay









and Barry Meadow in his book "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" (I'm pretty sure it was that book) criticized his buddies for their rule to never bet a horse going off at less than even money - saying that he would if he believed the payout was greater than the true odds




*
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe

Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-28-2020 at 02:18 PM.
Half Smoke is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 03:21 PM   #10
lefty359
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 736
Value is very nebulous o say the least. That said, I hate to bet a horse at less than 4-1.
lefty359 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 05:52 PM   #11
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
value

  1. I disagree with a significant part of the 'narrative'.
  2. I know that I'm correct.
  3. And, I'm going to come out ahead after the process of thousands of such bets, without any concern over the immediate specific result.



Takes some competence in at least part of the game. Very difficult and rare to find such opportunities, and (often most difficult of all), you have to overcome the cognitive biases and results-oriented irrational play.

Easier typed, than done.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 09-28-2020 at 05:54 PM.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2020, 08:56 PM   #12
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
I also disagree with the entire narrative because the quoted sayings (and most of the responses) seem to imply an effort to find value with individual entries for purposes of playing them to win. I’ve never thought of myself as player who attempts to simply “Picking Winners”. I would prefer to characterize my involvement as an endeavor to make "Winning Plays". This will of course include those pre-race tote observations to determine if the results of making any play that will result in a reasonable profit margin.

I’ve never had a problem including a short-priced entry among others when playing the variety of Vertical exotics that are available, or even when making a 3-entry Dutch Win bet. The bottom line for me is always the relationship between a known hit frequency and an anticipated profit margin. This is based on a quick examination of a combination of the odds of the selected contenders and the amount necessary to cover the entire bet properly. If either component shows a marginal outcome the race simply becomes a pass.

This has proven to me to be a significant facet in improving the overall hit frequency %.

Although I generally try to maintain a disciplined approach, I will admit to playing an Exotic now and then with a low hit frequency, but only when the anticipated profit margin is substantial. This applies primarily to playing Supers.
Every once and while that always tempting Siren song will play in our mind in order to entice us to attempt snatching that excessive Profit. Those womanly-birds certainly know our human weaknesses in the betting area.
.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-29-2020, 08:44 AM   #13
Half Smoke
Registered User
 
Half Smoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,269
..............


sayings are fun to read or listen to but they really don't proffer any wisdom on how to win at this game

they imply a one size fits all mentality

clearly, there are many ways to approach betting racing and to strategize




if you looked at the strategies of 100 who are winners you would surely find many different approaches





*
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Half Smoke is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-29-2020, 01:53 PM   #14
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,523
Related to the thread on Benter, what appears to be value is often not because others have inside knowledge about these horses that you don't have but that info winds up being reflected on the board.

That's the giant "hole" in the odds line approach.

Your odds line reflects the information you have and the data/figures you are using, but sometimes what you have is incomplete or in error. So what appears to be good value is not.

The trick (no easy task) is knowing when you know something that is not reflected on the board but should be.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-29-2020, 02:49 PM   #15
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Related to the thread on Benter, what appears to be value is often not because others have inside knowledge about these horses that you don't have but that info winds up being reflected on the board.

That's the giant "hole" in the odds line approach.

Your odds line reflects the information you have and the data/figures you are using, but sometimes what you have is incomplete or in error. So what appears to be good value is not.

The trick (no easy task) is knowing when you know something that is not reflected on the board but should be.
How can an insider or anyone win if all the info is reflected in the odds?
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.