Sunday April 2nd, 2017 thoughts:
Race 3: I'll never forget going nuts over Franco's ride on this horse back at the SPA. Since then has been on a tear. Rock solid single in here despite move to open company and freshening. Confidence in fitness is found in last 2 running lines. Was off 53 days after the Dec 7th race, off an 11 length win. Took 23 days off till next workout. Only had 3 for Jan 29th start and still won easy... 63 day freshening here. Similar workout pattern to last jogjob. Furthermore, after the Oct 27 race, was off 5 weeks till 1 singular workout popped up on the page, won by 11 in that 47 day freshening.
With that said. He is the center to the P5.
The other solid opinion is in
race 5. I blew a gasket on Hector Diaz for his "ride" on Three Eighy Eight and I am not really happy that he is back on. I wanted someone with more muscle, as I feel this horse needs a strong pump. Franco would've been perfect but alas, I feel like he is the only closer in a race where the bookend bombs can sprinkle in some unwanted moves on the chalks residing in pp's 4&5. I especially think the 6's post and 2nd quarter capability can make the 4&5 miserable. I see the 2 swallowing them up from last as my top opinion. Will use the 4&5 (weighed out as well) and cover to 3&6 as C's on a skimpy ticket.
Race 4: Almost anyone can win.
1) Like the way he's finished in last 2. (4YO vs 3YO)
2) FTS. Sire 1/37 with FTS but anything Rosario rides for Cannizzo I am interested in.
3) Hideous 1st out. Looks to be Need the Lead type. Drops. Hushion 3/6 with 2TS MDS to MDCL.
4) Best race can win it, decent Trainer change, Luzzi off, Maragh up. Likely. (4YO vs 3YO)
5) 2TS, can improve
6) not really liking (only 1 of 2 spds, what if 3 breaks bad?)
7) Not in love but is likely and do you want to blow a P5 to a 5/2? (4yo VS 3yo)
8) Maybe cut back helps closing kick? Big rider change
Using ALL on 1 ticket, then 47 to have it extra times, 1 extra ticket to the 125.
Race 2: Can like Beach Hut right back as many of these can be going the wrong way. The 7 can be tough if the right prescription is there. The 2 merits a look as well. Using those 3 in P5.
Race 1: What a weak bunch of horses. Hate the fact that Phocea has gone back to the wrong lead 50 yards out in last two races. Has never ran a 1 turn Mile, so who knows how the 4F on the backstretch will effect his lead changes. The 2 might be softened by the leader (the 3). The 4 is not out of the question as she is a stamina horse who is showing deceptive signs of getting back into form. 26 mostly, cover on 34.
This is a pick 5 you want to have for $5 or $10. Hitting it for .50 probably won't be worth it. To be frank, not a play I am savoring to play but will play some tickets, just in case I am 100% right or 80%.
Official plays for me on here are the following:
$100 WIN and $400 PLACE 2 in race 5
$50 parlay
Race 2 Place 4
Race 5 Place 2
$25 parlay
Race 1 Place 6
Race 2 Place 4
Race 5 Place 2
$50 Parlay
Race 3 Win 2
Race 5 Place 2
$25 Parlay
Race 2 Place 4
Race 3 Win 2
Race 5 Place 2
$50 Parlay
Race 4 Show 1
Race 5 Place 2
Betting back $700 of the $1500 that was made yesterday.
Good luck everyone
Just Got Out (ON) 6-1 A Arroyo -C F Martin
Littlemissbusiness (FL) 5-1 K Carmouche -J C Englehart
Alex the Terror (KY) 8-1 R Montanez -J T Toscano, Jr.
Mama Joyce (FL) 6-1 C H Velasquez -G C Contessa
Pretty Enuff (NY) 6-1 I Ortiz, Jr. -J C Englehart
Mollica (NY) 6-1 H R Diaz, Jr. - L Rice
. Andy's presentation of stats on Linda's horses are remarkable. He's made the correct point a few times - for some reason stats on her placement patterns (and ultimate results) are meaningful.
