Stock Market Prediction

[Valuist]

Why buy AAPL now? People said it was cheap when it went under $200. Same thing at $175. Same thing last week and today. The chart is broken and will take months to prepare. Never try to catch a falling knife and call an absolute bottom.

[lamboguy]

my best advice is to always have a defined risk in the markets. always have a stop in somewhere. its insurance policy because we are humans and tend to be wrong more often than right.

[Ocala Mike]

Averaging down on a stock like AAPL is fighting the tape (and the Fed; oh,and throw in Trump's "China syndrome" too).

I made money with AAPL a few years back when it was in the low 100's by buying the stock and selling the calls against it. Lowered my cost basis and got out with a decent profit without being a pig.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Averaging down on a stock like AAPL is fighting the tape (and the Fed; oh,and throw in Trump's "China syndrome" too).

I made money with AAPL a few years back when it was in the low 100's by buying the stock and selling the calls against it. Lowered my cost basis and got out with a decent profit without being a pig.

i have been averaging down now on a stock for 5 years and so far i am destroyed. but i suspect i am going to wind up with a homerun pretty soon. MUX.

Jesse Livermore said, "when you know you're right, you must sit tight"

[Ocala Mike]

I got in and out of MUX when you touted it years ago. Can't see the upside - are they gonna discover a new mine or something? If you're bullish on gold, why not just buy the metal?

I also think you were wise to cover on GE.

As for me, I gave out TNDM this year, and I made some $ in it (but nowhere near the killing I should have made). I'm taking a small shot in a vaccine company, NVAX, working on a flu vaccine and an RSV vaccine. Good news today.

[lamboguy]

i must have traded NOVAVAX 50 times when there was a bird flu epidemic about a decade ago,

Rob Mcewen is the CEO for MUX, he was CEO of GOLDCORP 10 years ago. that stock went from $2 to $52. any gold miner is just an option on gold that does not expire but can go out of business.

MUX has no debt and has plenty of properties with assets in the ground. to me the downside is they do business in Mexico.

when i trade equities or markets i always look for where the volume was. in MUX there is volume at $9. in my world volume attracts price at some point in time. light volume at lows proves the stock doesn't want to go down further and could move up back to the highs or beyond.

volume and price is how stocks do their talking, walking and squawking.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Powell sounded a smidge more dovish in today's Q&A session in Atlanta. After the last FOMC meeting, he said the balance sheet was "on autopilot." Today, he basically said nothing is etched in stone (not exact words).

[ultracapper]

Apple is off it's all time high by more than the entire market capitalization of Facebook. It has taken quite the pounding.

[lamboguy]

re short GE 8.20. stop out for the day at 8.26, then take it home over the weekend.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Impressive follow-thru day - up vs down volume ultra strong --north of 15x

[Saratoga_Mike]

GE...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ge-stock-rises

[reckless]

Those that believe the stock market will tank in 2019 ... good luck.

As I have said on here many times, the economy, fiscal policy, interest rates, failing oil and commodity prices, peace, steady and growing earnings and dividends ... all point to rising equity prices not lower.

Here is another example for investing in, and not being out of the market:

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...hits-trump-era

... The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday the economy added an impressive 312,000 jobs in December, which was a month of strong retail sales; and the nation's unemployment rate increased two-tenths of a point to 3.9 percent, which is still an 18-year low.

The number of employed Americans has now set a 14th record under Trump:

When Trump became president in January 2017, 152,076,000 Americans were employed. Last month, that number grew to a record 156,945,000, a gain of 4,869,000 in two years. ...

[Saratoga_Mike]

On oil....

Crude oil prices have fallen 30 percent or more 13 times since 1982, according to Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research. Of the prior 12 occurrences, the oil drop overlapped eight times with what Ned Davis Research defines as a cyclical bear market - a 30 percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI after 50 calendar days or a 13 percent decline after 145 calendar days.

Source: Reuters

On commodities, weak commodity prices don't typically bode well for equity markets.

Not looking to argue with you about the market (price action over the past week has been impressive), but you make opinion posts as if they're fact. When in reality, the opposite is true (see oil).

[lamboguy]

anyone can read a company report and see what is happening with interest rates.

the idea of the market is to be ahead of that stuff and predict what is going to happen 9 months from now.

my opinion of this market is that it is going to test out the prior high and maybe a little further then i believe its going to get a major haircut and finish the year off much lower than what it is today.

that is my opinion and it can change. as everyone knows the markets have opposite directions that it can travel. when the markets go up they tend to climb stairs and when they go down, an elevator takes it there.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

On oil....

Crude oil prices have fallen 30 percent or more 13 times since 1982, according to Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research. Of the prior 12 occurrences, the oil drop overlapped eight times with what Ned Davis Research defines as a cyclical bear market - a 30 percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI after 50 calendar days or a 13 percent decline after 145 calendar days.

Source: Reuters

On commodities, weak commodity prices don't typically bode well for equity markets.

Not looking to argue with you about the market (price action over the past week has been impressive), but you make opinion posts as if they're fact. When in reality, the opposite is true (see oil).

Yes, you are correct. Weak commodity prices could hurt the equity market. I used that in my last post because the market had dropped since Oct. 3, 2018 on fear of inflation and the rising of interest rates, based on that stupid analysis by Powell.

FWIW, I always felt disinflation was far worse than inflation. But then, everything is OK until it is not OK.

Failing oil prices, or better, a steady level of prices, is great for industry and the economy and that makes it great for equity prices.

Sure if oil drops to $25-30 a barrel it will kill small Texas banks that finance drillers based on $80 oil, as it happened countless times. Large multinationals like XON, BP, RDS, etc., need higher prices too and lower oil hurts their bottom line a bit. But the rest of mankind benefits when oil is steady at $40-50 bucks or so.

While I make such posts that you call opinions I view them as facts for my wallet and peace of mind. Name one thing I listed that isn't a fact -- and remember, Mike, I listed all those things as my reasons for calling a great 2019 in the stock market. I gave those reasons why I think so -- and bought stocks these past 2-3 weeks to support my 'opinion'. And I also added that the volatility is killing me and I am going nuts.

And, I may add, I am just about the only one on here that has expressed this view of rising stock prices in 2019.

PS--I don't think you are being argumentative at all. There should be more like it on here, truth be known.