*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom

Here are a 6 examples of horses stepping back up in class today (3/6/16) after a drop and an out-of-money finish

AQU4 (30-1)
AQU6 (10-1)

GP8 (15-1)

SA2 (8-1)
SA2 (6-1)
SA2 (12-1)

Best bet, IMHO, is the JAI ALAI (10-1) in AQU's 6th.

Live first time starter
GP9 (15-1) Dam has thrown 2 first time outing winners of the 3 that have raced. Allbetrani/Caraballo show a 450% profit with their turf sprinters.

No, HH...have never heard that angle used with maidens. Interesting--but that can't possibly be profitable? It would guarantee a longshot--that's for sure.
IMO, some trainers REFUSE to place their horse where it has a chance to win. Mostly---trainers that raise their maidens up in class--are generally incompetent....unless it just ran huge, a big speed fig, showed some sign it deserved to go up in class. As you know, HH...some obscure trainers seem to be afraid someone will claim their precious $5k maiden...and win the Preakness with it...thereby exposing them as incompetent.

I'll have to take a look at that angle--thanks for posting

-NCG

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

...

*TURF PARADISE

5TH KAHUNA CAT 8-1

...

You deserved to get $40 for that winner.

[Winger]

Originally Posted by Winger

Current Bankroll: $245.90 (+$45.90 - 46 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP

Today's Selections:
GGX-4 Maximum Maximum (5/2)
GGX-6 Aalsmeer (10/1)
LAX-1 Lana Caprina (9/5)
OPX-2 Time Iz Flyin (10/1)

GGX-4 Maximum Maximum (5/2) Wager Failed
LAX-1 Lana Caprina (9/5) Scratched
OPX-2 Time Iz Flyin (10/1) Scratched

[Winger]

Current Bankroll: $239.90 (+$39.90 - 47 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP

Today's Selections:
HOU-10 Folsom Time (3/1)
PRX-2 Hauler (7/2)
PRX-5 Here's a Jetpack (9/2)
TUP-2 Jilas Berry (6/1)

[Winger]

I'm working on a new angle. I'm looking for horses that have hit the board in 4 consecutive races and are repeating the same class as last race, determined by purse value. There are some other qualifiers to make it a bet. Wagers are conditional at 2/1 Odds @ 0 MTP.

MVR-5 Proud and Bright (7/2)
TUP-2 Wild Fibs (4/5) - This one won't hit the odds requirement, but I'll box him in an exacta with my other horse in this race.

There's also a Quarter Hose who meets this angle. I don't have the data to know how this angle holds up in QH races, but I'll throw a bet on it.
LAD-5 MCM No Accent (6/1)

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Winger

I'm working on a new angle. I'm looking for horses that have hit the board in 4 consecutive races and are repeating the same class as last race, determined by purse value. There are some other qualifiers to make it a bet. Wagers are conditional at 2/1 Odds @ 0 MTP.

MVR-5 Proud and Bright (7/2)
TUP-2 Wild Fibs (4/5) - This one won't hit the odds requirement, but I'll box him in an exacta with my other horse in this race.

There's also a Quarter Hose who meets this angle. I don't have the data to know how this angle holds up in QH races, but I'll throw a bet on it.
LAD-5 MCM No Accent (6/1)

I once bet a quarter-horse by accident---was a software pick @ Turf Paradise--didn't even realize it wasn't a t-bred--but it won and paid over $20.00. I've never bet one,before, or since.

Since I've had my best win%, avg mutual, and ROI on quarter horse-betting---the stats say I should chuck this thoroughbred wagering, and stick to what I'm best at--quarter horses.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

You deserved to get $40 for that winner.

Sometimes hard to gauge what a horse will go off at, and if the stable is betting. You're a TUP man, john...so you know all about that.

Kahuna Cat could have paid $8.00 ----- or $50.00

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

Who runs 0-32 maidens? If you win, where are you going to go with it then?

It's a crime he only got 12-1.

Hey, does anyone remember this maiden that got alot of notoriety...because it was something like 0 for 100? This was back maybe early 90's---he developed a following, had a fan club and everything, as I recall.

He finally did win--and it made national news--good story.

[NorCalGreg]

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:TURF PARADISE~Race-4 -->> 2-3-4-5

Couple races pretty interesting @ Turf Paradise---my favorite track. I know I talk about pace alot--but I'm really a common speed 'capper. My game is weak in areas, but I can do what I do best @ lightning fast tracks like TUP.
wish they ran all year---I'd go buy myself a sweet triple-wide mobile home--with a nuclear-powered air conditioner--and sit and bet Paradise all day. Might even actually go out there too, lol.
I already posted about one race on the handicapping thread--I'll reproduce it here--after this.
First, let me get to the wagers today:

**Mahoning Valley

4TH TWISTED FACTS 6-1

**HOUSTON

3RD MAKOSHIKA 6-1

**TURF PARADISE

4TH Looks like I'm gonna have to spend some money on this race: MAGGIES GUY 8-1 ML, also the DR WATSON @ 15-1 ML...has a huge late fig, and the look of a longshot upsetter. I'm going to bet them both to win---box them in an exacta--add TALESPINNER 6/5 ML--AND THE OCCUPY VANCOUVER 5-1 ML--into a trifecta and superfecta

----exacta
---tri
---super


6TH MISS AMERICAN PIE 12-1 Bet this horse last out--was a little befuddled at her poor performance--give her another shot to redeem herself.


8TH You ever see one of those races--where all the favorites finish at the bottom--and all the longshots are on the board? One of the reasons for that--is they were all good sharp horses that were well-bet--INDIVIDUALLY--but collectively the pace picture was all wrong. This 8th race looks like one of those: ALL the top horses all have an "E" running style---E-7 or E-8. That means they all want the lead right away--and obviously ALL can't have the lead--so the pace pressure is gonna be huge. Now there are 3 others, one with E/P style and the other 2 "P"...they don't want the lead. So...if we're very lucky--the top speedballs will be used up mid-stretch--leaving our "E" contenders to pick them off.
These are the kind of races where you gotta take a stand--to succeed in horse-betting. This whole thing could blow up in my face--but ---it might NOT. Im going to bet an exacta, and trifecta

ROYAL STORMER 10-1
ESTANCIA 6-1
NEGRO PRIMERA 10-1

Boxing all 3 in both bets.

The odds of me hitting this are not really good, alot of things have to go right--but if it happens--this is gonna be a sweet payoff, with all the top favorites out of the money.

We'll see what happens

🗽NCG

[NorCalGreg]

*Bridgejumper Alert ----24 Hours in Advance
Tomorrow's 2nd race @ Turf Paradise caught my attention. WILD FIBS is a standout of epic proportions. Usually, a horse of her caliber, one that so obviously doesn't belong with these bottom-level 3K claimers---you'll find them coming off a long layoff--with a huge class drop. Those are the worst bets in racing.

Not 'Fibs---she's back in 13 days, so she's not walking with a noticeable limp. That should be enough for her to get the job done. But......there's more--WILD FIBS is a QUADRUPLE BRIS ADV. All 4 of her last Bris speed ratings are higher than any other horse's single highest showing.
Double Adv horses win somewhere around 45%--Triple Adv---it goes up to maybe 65%+...Quad has got to be 80-90%.

There are 6 entered, one is coming off a 200 day layoff---kiss that one goodbye. Bridgejumpers like to see 5-horse fields...and I'm guessing one of the other trainers --looking to pick up a check--will want no part of 'Fibs, and scratch out for another easier slot.
This is a perfect race to Jump--so if any of you have some embezzled money you need to pay back--your get-out-of-jail ticket starts here.

✨NCG

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

It's a crime he only got 12-1.

Hey, does anyone remember this maiden that got alot of notoriety...because it was something like 0 for 100? This was back maybe early 90's---he developed a following, had a fan club and everything, as I recall.

He finally did win--and it made national news--good story.

Tom's favorite horse Zippy Chippy.

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

It's a crime he only got 12-1.

Hey, does anyone remember this maiden that got alot of notoriety...because it was something like 0 for 100? This was back maybe early 90's---he developed a following, had a fan club and everything, as I recall.

He finally did win--and it made national news--good story.

How much money do you think the owner lost on that horse $100,000+, more? A rule of thumb at an average track, if you are not making $2000 per start, you are not making any money.

[Winger]

Originally Posted by Winger

Current Bankroll: $239.90 (+$39.90 - 47 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP

Today's Selections:
HOU-10 Folsom Time (3/1)
PRX-2 Hauler (7/2)
PRX-5 Here's a Jetpack (9/2)
TUP-2 Jilas Berry (6/1)

HOU-10 Folsom Time (3/1) Wager Failed
PRX-2 Hauler (7/2) Wager Failed
PRX-5 Here's a Jetpack (9/2) Scratched

[Winger]

Originally Posted by Winger

I'm working on a new angle. I'm looking for horses that have hit the board in 4 consecutive races and are repeating the same class as last race, determined by purse value. There are some other qualifiers to make it a bet. Wagers are conditional at 2/1 Odds @ 0 MTP.

MVR-5 Proud and Bright (7/2)
TUP-2 Wild Fibs (4/5) - This one won't hit the odds requirement, but I'll box him in an exacta with my other horse in this race.

There's also a Quarter Hose who meets this angle. I don't have the data to know how this angle holds up in QH races, but I'll throw a bet on it.
LAD-5 MCM No Accent (6/1)

The Quarter Horse paid off.
LAD-5 MCM No Accent (6/1) 1st... 6.80
TUP-2 Wild Fibs (4/5) Wager Failed... as expected

[Winger]

These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.
All require min odds of 2/1

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
MVR-7 Dont Waste My Time (3/1)

1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure.
SUN-2 Silver Candy (5/2)
SUN-3 RoseWhiteNBlue (3/1)
SUN-7 Giant Prospector (3/1)
SUN-9 Chocolatier (6/1)
TUP-1 Cora Di Avali (6/5) ExBox with selection from method testing