*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

and this...

[NorCalGreg]

This is the 12th Spot Play on the list at the website, and turning out to be pretty good--not spectacular. I play it when the odds are 5-6 to 1, or if the horse is dominant, as was the case with KING CORAL yesterday at Alb.

All you do is click the E-1 button, giving you a lineup of all the E-1 leaders of every race. You then look for a standout LATE PACE LEADER among those--such a horse will be instantly recognizable--he'll be the one with a 90+ late pace, while the rest of the E-1 leaders are a lot lower (usually).
He'll also be on top in this field in SPEED, EPS, EARLY OR LATE POWER and maybe more.

This play works well at certain tracks, others not so much. Nothing I have works at Gulfstream--please don't bother. Del Mar is another story, and so is Belmont...works well at both.

I just clicked the E-1 button at DEL MAR and this is what comes up. You see PRIZE EXHIBIT is the spot play here...has a ton of positives--not the least being that 12-1 ML. That's how easy this spot play is to find solid plays.

The reverse of this, of course is to hit the LATE button....and look for a really high E-1 standout pace figure.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

...

I'm up one night as I always am..and a guy sends me an email. He says he doesn't have PayPal, is it possible to just send me a money order, or cash?
Now, if you've never done internet business, you have no way of knowing this---but almost 100 out of 100 times, the 'No PayPal Guy" is trying some kind of scam to avoid actually buying whatever it is you are selling.

...

This cracked me up. Beware there are more than one of the Texas guy. I can't even remember what it was for but someone wanted me to PayPal. I offered the cash same way. That was too slow. I had some gift cards laying around in a drawer from Amazon since everyone seems to be those in the absence of a better gift idea. I ended up buying him some crap from Amazon instead.

[Cice]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

All you do is click the E-1 button, giving you a lineup of all the E-1 leaders of every race. You then look for a standout LATE PACE LEADER among those--such a horse will be instantly recognizable--he'll be the one with a 90+ late pace, while the rest of the E-1 leaders are a lot lower (usually).
He'll also be on top in this field in SPEED, EPS, EARLY OR LATE POWER and maybe more.

This play works well at certain tracks, others not so much. Nothing I have works at Gulfstream--please don't bother. Del Mar is another story, and so is Belmont...works well at both.

I just clicked the E-1 button at DEL MAR and this is what comes up. You see PRIZE EXHIBIT is the spot play here...has a ton of positives--not the least being that 12-1 ML. That's how easy this spot play is to find solid plays.

The reverse of this, of course is to hit the LATE button....and look for a really high E-1 standout pace figure.

Looks like this applies to TR Crew at Belmont, no?!

[Winger]

Here are today's consensus chalk plays. I'll keep following this to see if it can maintain its 50%+ hit rate and/or positive ROI.

APX-2 NEVRMESSWITHRICHIE - 7/5
APX-4 MI RIORI - 2/1
BEL-3 RUNAWAY LUIE - 7/5
BEL-8 FORCE THE PASS - 3/5
BTP-6 SUNSET SANDS - 8/5
CTX-6 MARCH WIND - 5/2
DEL-1 SUPER FUND - 3/2
DEL-5 SERENREADY - 2/1
FLX-6 LIMERICK LIGHTNING - 5/2
FLX-7 FRATELLO DEL NORD - 7/5
GPX-10 KISS TO REMEMBER - 9/5
HPX-6 CAPITANO CIELO - 2/1
HPX-9 FIREHOUSE - 2/1
HST-4 ROYAL BRIAR - 8/5
HST-7 STORM STALKER - 2/1
HST-8 TUCCI - 2/1
IND-4 UNICORNIO - 2/1
IND-5 PLEUVEN - 2/1
LRL-7 MAGGIE WAR - 9/5
MDX-3 MIDST OF CHAOS - 2/1
MDX-7 RICH GIRL - 5/2
MTH-4 LITTLE HITMAN - 2/1
MTH-9 VEE'S BOY - 8/5
NPX-1 ROYAL LUSH - 7/5
NPX-2 ONESTARATATIME - 4/5
NPX-9 BLUE DANCER - 1/1
PEN-5 WORDPLAY - 5/2
PEN-8 SARAH'S BIG DAY - 2/1
PRM-2 DESANCTUS - 2/1
PRM-3 PTAHA - 2/1
PRM-4 DERBY DUDE - 8/5
PRM-8 SEISMIC FORCE - 2/1
WOX-7 AZIMUT - 5/2
WOX-10 ALPHA HIGH - 2/1

[green80]

Originally Posted by Winger

I'll play with it. I've been looking for a high percentage method to play with my longshot method to help smooth out the fluctuations. The run-outs hurt.

Another idea I am floating is if I can validate these consensus picks, I might use them as key horses in exotics.

I think you are on the right track, looks like you are playing the horses 5/2 and less. With the number of plays you have, just a slight pos ROI say 1.10, you can make a lot of $$ with enough plays and the right bankroll strategy.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Cice

Looks like this applies to TR Crew at Belmont, no?!

At 5-1 TR Crew was a play----you have the idea down cold, Cice. What seals the deal was the 5-1 ML, the huge LATE POWER adv, and the 93 speed.

That spot-play's twin---click LATE...and see if an E-1 fig leaps off the page, that honor went to RUNAWAY LUTE though well below minimum odds for a win bet.--NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Didn't see anything worthwhile on spot plays at Belmont--Albuquerque is always good for a spot play or two. Those are the only two tracks I've had a chance to look at so far.

Here's an E-1 spot play like the one we talked about earlier....

This is a really speedy track, notice the 7th to 10th race are all horses? They just happen to have a pick-4 starting in the 7th race--so that right there is a serendipitous signal to buy a $2 ticket if I ever saw one.

Ohhh...can you tell I have another spell checker program?? It's letting me know I spelled everything correctly!

[NorCalGreg]

Amazing what you find when you arent even looking for anything. First thing, in this 8th race at Belmont--OC non-winners X this n' that..I noticed one that has the look of a classic "sucker-bet" -GIOIA STELLA huge speed number, EPS, pace call, and today a class drop. She looks like a horse that's going to take a lot of money and burn it up--just sayin'.

Anyhoo...I happen to notice a horse named PURE LEMON @ 20-1 with ridiculous early pace numbers, but a 100 LATE FIG! To top it off, Pure Lemon is a confirmed E-6. How does that happen? 'Lemon walked around the track to the top of the stretch then literally flew home. You'll look for awhile -unless it's the Breeder's Cup-- before you see another E-6 or higher with a 100+ late pace fig.
I've looked at this race from several angles..honestly, the PV #1 and 2 selections look solid here @ very low prices

[NorCalGreg]

BELMONT PACE VIEW TOP TWO

1ST YOUNG ANNA LEE 2-1 SHOT TWICE 20-1

2ND ONLY YOU 6/5 ORDINAIRE 2-1

3RD WARRIORS DIVA 5/2 SPECTACULAR FLASH 7/2

4TH MAJESTIC JESSICA 2-1 CHAMPAGNE RUBY 5-1

5TH LEAD BY EXAMPLE 3-1 A CHIP AND A CHAIR 12-1

6TH FOREVER IN LOVE 2-1 FEAR THE FALCON 7/2

7TH QUEEN OF CASTLE 5-1 TABLE FOR SIX 5/2

8TH ON LEAVE 5/2 TAURINE 2-1

9TH WILBURNMONEY 2-1 ZENNA 5-1

10TH LIAM'S PRINCE 10-1 REFER 3-1



DEL MAR SMOKES AND BEER MONEY

5TH RACE ENTRECHAT 3-1

-NCG

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Winger

Here are today's consensus chalk plays. I'll keep following this to see if it can maintain its 50%+ hit rate and/or positive ROI.

APX-2 NEVRMESSWITHRICHIE - 7/5
APX-4 MI RIORI - 2/1
BEL-3 RUNAWAY LUIE - 7/5
BEL-8 FORCE THE PASS - 3/5
BTP-6 SUNSET SANDS - 8/5
CTX-6 MARCH WIND - 5/2
DEL-1 SUPER FUND - 3/2
DEL-5 SERENREADY - 2/1
FLX-6 LIMERICK LIGHTNING - 5/2
FLX-7 FRATELLO DEL NORD - 7/5
GPX-10 KISS TO REMEMBER - 9/5
HPX-6 CAPITANO CIELO - 2/1
HPX-9 FIREHOUSE - 2/1
HST-4 ROYAL BRIAR - 8/5
HST-7 STORM STALKER - 2/1
HST-8 TUCCI - 2/1
IND-4 UNICORNIO - 2/1
IND-5 PLEUVEN - 2/1
LRL-7 MAGGIE WAR - 9/5
MDX-3 MIDST OF CHAOS - 2/1
MDX-7 RICH GIRL - 5/2
MTH-4 LITTLE HITMAN - 2/1
MTH-9 VEE'S BOY - 8/5
NPX-1 ROYAL LUSH - 7/5
NPX-2 ONESTARATATIME - 4/5
NPX-9 BLUE DANCER - 1/1
PEN-5 WORDPLAY - 5/2
PEN-8 SARAH'S BIG DAY - 2/1
PRM-2 DESANCTUS - 2/1
PRM-3 PTAHA - 2/1
PRM-4 DERBY DUDE - 8/5
PRM-8 SEISMIC FORCE - 2/1
WOX-7 AZIMUT - 5/2
WOX-10 ALPHA HIGH - 2/1

What was the outcome of this?
Wanted to see if you have a streak going...
Yes...I'm too lazy NCG...

Mike

[Light]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

BELMONT PACE VIEW TOP TWO

1ST YOUNG ANNA LEE 2-1 SHOT TWICE 20-1

2ND ONLY YOU 6/5 ORDINAIRE 2-1

3RD WARRIORS DIVA 5/2 SPECTACULAR FLASH 7/2

4TH MAJESTIC JESSICA 2-1 CHAMPAGNE RUBY 5-1

5TH LEAD BY EXAMPLE 3-1 A CHIP AND A CHAIR 12-1

6TH FOREVER IN LOVE 2-1 FEAR THE FALCON 7/2

7TH QUEEN OF CASTLE 5-1 TABLE FOR SIX 5/2

8TH ON LEAVE 5/2 TAURINE 2-1

9TH WILBURNMONEY 2-1 ZENNA 5-1

10TH LIAM'S PRINCE 10-1 REFER 3-1



DEL MAR SMOKES AND BEER MONEY

5TH RACE ENTRECHAT 3-1

-NCG

Are these the top early and late pace horses according to your program? If so are the horses on the left the top early and the ones on the right the top late?

[Pensacola Pete]

Originally Posted by Light

Are these the top early and late pace horses according to your program? If so are the horses on the left the top early and the ones on the right the top late?

Those are the top two horses by Pace View power rating.

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

BELMONT PACE VIEW TOP TWO

[B]1ST YOUNG ANNA LEE 2-1 SHOT TWICE 20-1

2ND ONLY YOU 6/5 ORDINAIRE 2-1

3RD WARRIORS DIVA 5/2 SPECTACULAR FLASH 7/2

4TH MAJESTIC JESSICA 2-1 CHAMPAGNE RUBY 5-1

5TH LEAD BY EXAMPLE 3-1 A CHIP AND A CHAIR 12-1

6TH FOREVER IN LOVE 2-1 FEAR THE FALCON 7/2

7TH QUEEN OF CASTLE 5-1 TABLE FOR SIX 5/2

8TH ON LEAVE 5/2 TAURINE 2-1

9TH WILBURNMONEY 2-1 ZENNA 5-1

10TH LIAM'S PRINCE 10-1 REFER 3-1[/
-NCG

Up to the 4Th Race ... Nice going NorCalGreg !!

[Winger]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

What was the outcome of this?
Wanted to see if you have a streak going...
Yes...I'm too lazy NCG...

Mike

Yesterday was a rough day, 11/31 .82 ROI. A lot of second place finishes.

I was out late last night, so I didn't have time to do today.