Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 30 votes, 3.80 average.
Old 03-24-2016, 11:04 AM   #211
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
*Angles

I've heard ANGLE horseplayers--are generally weak handicappers..and rely on angles--or "situations" that fit the angles.

That is very true about me---I can't just look at a race, carefully check each horse-- and based on experience, intuition, gut feeling, whatever...have a confident feeling about a winner.
I'm unable to do that PROFITABLY, I should say. So I rely on angles--angles that make sense...angles I've thought up, and angles that have been around since Pittsburgh Phil.

Our own board member Halvey has an article in the Horseplayer Monthly, about time-tested angles that are still in use today. One I found interesting--LOW win % Trainers--with a HIGH win % jockey on board. This isn't new, as he said..but never seen any studies or stats on this angle. This amounts to basically, a TIP that perhaps Tom Worth missed in his TIPS method. I like it--and decided to look for this angle today.

Here are my parameters for testing:

TRAINER 5% WIN OR LESS--JOCKEY 15% WIN OR MORE---MIN 5-1 ML

AQ R-9 EL GENIO 12-1 TR-5%/JKY-16%[
*this horse shows other angles---top E-1 SPRINT --back 7 DAYS


PENN R-1 CASUAL CREEPER 6-1 3%/16%

CTX R-2 WINDSOR'S GAL 5-1 0%/30%
*top E-1 sprint

CTX R-8 LITE AND SWEET 15-1 4%/18%

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-24-2016 at 11:16 AM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-24-2016, 11:33 AM   #212
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
TOP E-1 SPRINT

Since mentioning top E-1 SPRINT angle...will go ahead and post those up.

RULES:

* Highest 1st call pace figure--last race
* Trainer Wins 10%+
* Back in 30 days
* Eliminate outside posts
* Eliminate ML Favorites

CTX R-1 MARGIN CALL 4-1 ~TR 13%--LAST R 19 DAYS

FGS R-12 HOT TUB SIXTY NINE 15-1 ~ TR 16% L-R 27

SA R-4 SLEW'S CHARM 20-1 ~ TR 10% L-R 27

SA R-6 SEATTLE SALT 6-1 ~ TR 10% L-R 7

have a good day

🎲NCG
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 12:32 AM   #213
Winger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Current Bankroll: $251.40 (+$51.40 - 106 Races)
Wager = $7 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: Minimum Odds condition removed.

Today's Selections:
FGX-8 Texas Fire (5/1)
SAX-4 Slews Charm (20/1)

==================================================
Additional Selections:
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
CTX-1 Cockeyed Cowboy (7/2)
PEN-6 Prospector Alley (7/2)

These picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
AQU-1 Pearls for Girls (3/1) 1st... 6.50
AQU-8 Madame Maybry (9/2)
CTX-8 Canaryinacoalmine (6/1) 1st... 9.40
FGX-8 School Spirit (6/1) 1st... 11.80
GGX-7 Xerxes (7/2)
OPX-8 Bayered (3/1) & Brewing (10/1)

1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure.
AQU-4 Lebowski (3/1)
AQU-7 Picture Day (5/1) 1st... 6.70
SAX-2 Hide My Heart (5/1)

Slightly profitable day.
Winger is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 12:42 AM   #214
Winger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
Current Bankroll: $237.40 (+$37.40 - 108 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)

Today's Selections:
FGX-2 Journey Thru Time (6/1)
FGX-3 Jias Pal (3/1)
HAW-6 Dundalk Bay (6/1)
PEN-1 Chloes White Soxs (7/2)
TAM-5 Germaines Rose (3/1)

==================================================
Additional Selections:
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
AQU-8 Lucky Lurie (5/2)
TPX-2 Delantera (3/1)

These picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
FGX-3 Jias Pal (3/1)
GPX-2 Silver Sashay (7/2)
GPX-4 Cattindog (4/1)
GPX-6 Breezy Song (4/1)
HAW-1 Frostbite Falls (4/1)
LAX-5 GLobal American (3/1)
OPX-1 Pretty Suspect (7/2)
OPX-4 Demi Ten (6/1)

1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure.
GPX-8 Dancin In The Heat (3/1)
LAX-1 Redistribute (5/2)
TAM-9 Sky City (7/2)
Winger is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 01:27 AM   #215
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
I've heard ANGLE horseplayers--are generally weak handicappers..and rely on angles--or "situations" that fit the angles.

That is very true about me---I can't just look at a race, carefully check each horse-- and based on experience, intuition, gut feeling, whatever...have a confident feeling about a winner.
I'm unable to do that PROFITABLY, I should say. So I rely on angles--angles that make sense...angles I've thought up, and angles that have been around since Pittsburgh Phil.

Our own board member Halvey has an article in the Horseplayer Monthly, about time-tested angles that are still in use today. One I found interesting--LOW win % Trainers--with a HIGH win % jockey on board. This isn't new, as he said..but never seen any studies or stats on this angle. This amounts to basically, a TIP that perhaps Tom Worth missed in his TIPS method. I like it--and decided to look for this angle today.

Here are my parameters for testing:

TRAINER 5% WIN OR LESS--JOCKEY 15% WIN OR MORE---MIN 5-1 ML

AQ R-9 EL GENIO 12-1 TR-5%/JKY-16%[
*this horse shows other angles---top E-1 SPRINT --back 7 DAYS


PENN R-1 CASUAL CREEPER 6-1 3%/16%

CTX R-2 WINDSOR'S GAL 5-1 0%/30%
*top E-1 sprint

CTX R-8 LITE AND SWEET 15-1 4%/18%
I often see low percentages jockeys doing their best with low odds horses...this makes perfect sense...from another perspective, I like high percentages jockeys on long odds horses but they don't win as much as the former for obvious reasons...but they still are attractive bets....ever run anything along these lines, greg?
VigorsTheGrey is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 05:39 AM   #216
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
I often see low percentages jockeys doing their best with low odds horses...this makes perfect sense...from another perspective, I like high percentages jockeys on long odds horses but they don't win as much as the former for obvious reasons...but they still are attractive bets....ever run anything along these lines, greg?
Hmmmm....no Vig, never have. But that is interesting--HIGH WIN% jockey on long-odds horse. A lot of these angle "situations" --I've never seen any testing done (Although I'm positive horseplayers have tested out every angle under the sun).
I'll add this angle into the mix and see if there is anything there
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 08:28 AM   #217
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
TRAINER 5% WIN OR LESS--JOCKEY 15% WIN OR MORE---MIN 5-1 ML--BACK 30 DAYS

Went 0-3 yesterday, with 1 scratch (the scratched horse was also the most interesting--EL GENIO @ AQ) Will keep an eye out for that one.
The numbers after ML are TR WIN%--JKY WIN%--DAYS SINCE LAST RACE


AQ R-4 CONQUEST KRONOS 6-1 ML 5-25-15

AQ R-9 INDIAN NOBILITY 30-1 ML 1-15-26


FG R-1 ZIPPLES 8-1 ML 5-15-20

FG R-3 CRYPTO GOOD 6-1 4-15-28

FG R-11 SHARE THE PULPIT 20-1 ML 3-15-15
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 09:12 AM   #218
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Here are today's runners of the angle Vigors mentioned---High% Jky--High Odds Horse

AQ R-4 SALEM LOOP 15-1 ML 13-20-7 ❇❇
*this horse has a 20% jock on a 15-1 horse and back in 7 days--awesome

AQ R-9 INDIAN NOBILITY 30-1 ML 1-15-26 ❇❇
*qualifies for BOTH angles

FG R-4 MIZ OWELL 12-1 ML 16-15-41

FG R-7 GOLD CHROME 20-1 ML 19-15-14

FG R-11 SHARE THE PULPIT 20-1 ML 3-15-15 ❇❇
*qualifies for BOTH angles

FG R-12 BABEFROMTHEGITGO 12-1 ML 20-15-26

LRL R-2 JUST FUNNIN YA 12-1 ML 5-19-34

LRL R-7 FIFTH AMENDMENT 12-1 ML 20-19-8 ❇❇

OAK R-8 TRUE RAJ 15-1 ML 23-15-28 ❇❇

PEN R-4 LADY GRACENOTE 10-1 ML 25-19-23 ❇❇

SA R-8 INSPIRED WISDOM 15-1 ML 13-16-26

SA R-8 THANKSGIVING DAY 20-1 ML 7-17-22

❇❇ indicates horse has more than one angle going
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 10:06 AM   #219
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
*GOLD STANDARD*

This last method/angle I've been using for some time. I call it the "Gold Standard"
With my little pace program...I can line up horses all together--one after another in a column---last race only, since that's all I'm concerned with--the "experts" will say impossible--just the last paceline is not enough--the last paceline isn't that important.

Well, I say OF COURSE the last line is the most important--especially when 'capping on the lower levels of class--but also as a general rule.

So anyway, I have all the horses in a column, that were close up EARLY-last race. Any horse among those--that has a FINAL PACE FIGURE of 90+..is a play.

Why 90? Trust me, I've looked at thousands of these lines---90 and above is somewhat rare, and possibly very powerful--for a horse that was close up at the 1st call, in the same race.
I call "90" the GOLD STANDARD. Usually you'll see this among layoff horses dropping down, huge favorites, or it's just an aberration, an anomaly. A race with a weird pace configuration. All of these are true.

But once in a while---an absolute hidden standout is among these. I've seen horses showing this "Gold Standard" go off at 30-1. AND WIN.
I'll list the qualifiers here...but there is one thing I didn't mention--I had to add an elimination rule--because quite frankly..although there were longshot winners--there weren't enough for profitability.
With this rule, I have eliminated some huge winners (that actually hurts--but it's a necessary rule)...so have pared the list down to profitability.

If you're sharp--you can figure out "the rule", but I can't just give it to you. Plus it can be flexible, as all rules must be.

*also...I'm not trying to be up on a cosmic handicapping box--or go HONG KONG on you --just posting as food for thought. I don't think most of the board 'cappers read this anyway--so that's why I can get away with posting self-indulgent sh*t like this.

Here's the GOLD STANDARD list:

AQ R-8 SARATOGA GIRO 20-1
GP R-2 TRUE BLUE NATION 5/2
OP R-8 FIRST THOUGHT 6-1
OP R-9 BLACK SHERRY 15-1
OP R-9 THAT'S EXCITING 30-1
SA R-5 DREAMING OF GOLD 7/2
SA R-4 MR CARTEGENA 4-1
SA R-8 THANKSGIVING DAY 20-1

-NCG☮
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 04:57 PM   #220
HalvOnHorseracing
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
I've heard ANGLE horseplayers--are generally weak handicappers..and rely on angles--or "situations" that fit the angles.

That is very true about me---I can't just look at a race, carefully check each horse-- and based on experience, intuition, gut feeling, whatever...have a confident feeling about a winner.
I'm unable to do that PROFITABLY, I should say. So I rely on angles--angles that make sense...angles I've thought up, and angles that have been around since Pittsburgh Phil.

Our own board member Halvey has an article in the Horseplayer Monthly, about time-tested angles that are still in use today. One I found interesting--LOW win % Trainers--with a HIGH win % jockey on board. This isn't new, as he said..but never seen any studies or stats on this angle. This amounts to basically, a TIP that perhaps Tom Worth missed in his TIPS method. I like it--and decided to look for this angle today.

Here are my parameters for testing:

TRAINER 5% WIN OR LESS--JOCKEY 15% WIN OR MORE---MIN 5-1 ML

AQ R-9 EL GENIO 12-1 TR-5%/JKY-16%[
*this horse shows other angles---top E-1 SPRINT --back 7 DAYS


PENN R-1 CASUAL CREEPER 6-1 3%/16%

CTX R-2 WINDSOR'S GAL 5-1 0%/30%
*top E-1 sprint

CTX R-8 LITE AND SWEET 15-1 4%/18%
I've done some interviews with Jockey agents (I'll be posting one next week). Most of the agents say they don't handicap races as much as they try to build trainer relationships. In other words, they try to get in good with trainers that have good stock. The reason why the angle is a good one is that

- if any of the top jock's trainers have a horse, that's where he will go to maintain the relationship
- a top jockey will not ride a horse from a secondary trainer he doesn't trust
- as I mentioned, if the trainer really believes he has a legitimate shot, he wants to engage the best jock he can

Two other things you can do: look at the rider history of the horse. If Javier Castellano always rides the horse, then the angle isn't as applicable. Look at the trainer history. If he has a pattern of only using Castellano when the horse is live, that's a tipoff.

Like most angles, you may have to add some layers to perfect it.

The angles that have probably produced best for me over the years are

- fastest half two year old
- debuting 3YO with top or close to top figure from the 2YO season
- disproportionate action in the exotic pools.

To this day I'll look at P4 payoffs and if a horse is bet well beyond his tote odds, I give him a second look
HalvOnHorseracing is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 06:10 PM   #221
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Current Bankroll: $237.40 (+$37.40 - 108 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)

Today's Selections:
FGX-2 Journey Thru Time (6/1)
FGX-3 Jias Pal (3/1)
HAW-6 Dundalk Bay (6/1)
PEN-1 Chloes White Soxs (7/2)
TAM-5 Germaines Rose (3/1)

Nice work
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline  
Old 03-25-2016, 11:29 PM   #222
HalvOnHorseracing
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
One of the angles was to bet the remaining part of an entry when the seemingly stronger half is scratched. First race at AQU today Aix En Provence remained after Nuffsaid Nuffsaid scratched. Four horse field and the horse paid $11.60
HalvOnHorseracing is offline  
Old 03-26-2016, 12:55 AM   #223
Winger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Current Bankroll: $237.40 (+$37.40 - 108 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)

Today's Selections:
FGX-2 Journey Thru Time (6/1)
FGX-3 Jias Pal (3/1) Scratched
HAW-6 Dundalk Bay (6/1) 1st... 14.80
PEN-1 Chloes White Soxs (7/2)
TAM-5 Germaines Rose (3/1)

==================================================
Additional Selections:
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
AQU-8 Lucky Lurie (5/2)
TPX-2 Delantera (3/1) 1st... 9.0

These picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
FGX-3 Jias Pal (3/1) Scratched
GPX-2 Silver Sashay (7/2)
GPX-4 Cattindog (4/1) Scratched
GPX-6 Breezy Song (4/1)
HAW-1 Frostbite Falls (4/1)
LAX-5 GLobal American (3/1) 1st... 5.00
OPX-1 Pretty Suspect (7/2)
OPX-4 Demi Ten (6/1)

1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure.
GPX-8 Dancin In The Heat (3/1)
LAX-1 Redistribute (5/2) 1st... 5.60
TAM-9 Sky City (7/2)

A very slightly profitable day. Los Al saved the day.
Winger is offline  
Old 03-26-2016, 01:55 AM   #224
Winger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
Current Bankroll: $251.80 (+$51.80 - 113 Races)
Wager = $7 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)

Today's Selections:
GGX-9 Kohala (6/1)
HAW-2 Crissy Field (7/2)
LRL-9 Gin Makes Ya Sin (10/1)
MVR-8 Salty Music (3/1)
PEN-7 Capablanca (10/1)
PRX-6 Heres a Jetpack (9/2)
TPX-1 Germaines Boy (9/2)

==================================================
Additional Selections:
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.

Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
TPX-5 Southpaw Slammer (15/1)

These picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
CTX-4 Libertytown Lass (8/1)
FGX-14 Why Wear Old Shoes (12/1)
GGX-8 My Friend Emma (8/1)
LAX-3 AnythingToGetEven (4/1)
LRL-9 Elevated (7/2)
OPX-1 Kinetic (5/1)
OPX-3 ZippZapZapper (9/2)
PEN-1 Woodland Babe (4/1)
PRX-2 Up All Night (20/1)
PRX-6 Heres a Jetpack (9/2)
SUN-5 Exposure (6/1)
SUN-7 Bull Case (4/1)
TPX-1 Lil J (7/2)
TPX-4 Gypsy Angel Row (4/1)
TPX-5 Southpaw Slammer (15/1)

1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed

figure.

AQU-6 Hot Squad (5/2)
MVR-7 Purple Flowers (8/1)
OPX-3 ZippZapZapper (9/2)
Winger is offline  
Old 03-26-2016, 08:03 AM   #225
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing
One of the angles was to bet the remaining part of an entry when the seemingly stronger half is scratched. First race at AQU today Aix En Provence remained after Nuffsaid Nuffsaid scratched. Four horse field and the horse paid $11.60

Yep, that's a good one allright. I also noticed horses that don't draw in--and are re-entered in the next few days- can be "live".

That AQ horse you mentioned, Halvey--had NOTHING at all to recommend---EXCEPT the fact he was the surviving part of the entry--and hot jock Carmouche had the call.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Closed Thread




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:25 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.