Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I agree with everything you are saying in terms of making a more accurate odds line, but I'm not sure how the live odds are helping him find overlays.
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Re: the bolded part of the above quote --
Imo, a well constructed fundamental model is the combination of two parts:
Part I. A before the odds are known model.
In his published work Benter specifically emphasized adjusted speed figs and adjusted finish positions.
Years later, during an interview, Dana Parham said their fundamental model was also scoring rider, trainer, and post position.
I've been told privately by players not affiliated with Benter in any way shape or form that their own before the odds are known models include 'trackwork' or subjective scoring of workouts and trips.
I get a very strong sense everything Benter and others like him have been willing to share barely scratches the surface.
And I fully appreciate why.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the before the odds are known part of not just Benter's model, but the models in use by a lot of the whales include many areas of the game: ability from speed figs, preference for surface and distance, class, current form, workouts, trips, early-late and inside-outside path biases, rider, trainer, breeding, and horse physicality, etc.
Part II. Win likelihood from tote.
You can write a reasonably good win likelihood algorithm using a pct of money bet on each horse in the win pool approach.
This is what that looks like in my current database over the past year:
Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE [DATE] >= #10-29-2019#
AND [DATE] <= #10-28-2020#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 368497.10 368385.30 366359.30
Bet -485900.00 -485900.00 -485900.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -117402.90 -117514.70 -119540.70
Wins 31122 62003 90867
Plays 242950 242950 242950
PCT .1281 .2552 .3740
ROI 0.7584 0.7582 0.7540
Avg Mut 11.84 5.94 4.03
Code:
By: SQL-F05 Gap (Implied Public Prob from Win Pool)
>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.0000 0.0250 -48412.70 118574.00 0.5917 1048 59287 .0177 0.1380
0.0250 0.0500 -16799.00 81872.00 0.7948 2077 40936 .0507 0.3961
0.0500 0.0750 -11415.00 55474.00 0.7942 2224 27737 .0802 0.6259
0.0750 0.1000 -7233.30 40468.00 0.8213 2225 20234 .1100 0.8584
0.1000 0.1250 -6741.60 30756.00 0.7808 1970 15378 .1281 1.0000
0.1250 0.1500 -5127.30 24392.00 0.7898 1844 12196 .1512 1.1803
0.1500 0.1750 -3355.70 19732.00 0.8299 1781 9866 .1805 1.4092
0.1750 0.2000 -2873.60 16120.00 0.8217 1599 8060 .1984 1.5487
0.2000 0.2250 -2275.20 13622.00 0.8330 1496 6811 .2196 1.7146
0.2250 0.2500 -1878.00 11618.00 0.8384 1390 5809 .2393 1.8679
0.2500 0.2750 -1769.50 9590.00 0.8155 1194 4795 .2490 1.9439
0.2750 0.3000 -1433.20 8068.00 0.8224 1085 4034 .2690 2.0996
0.3000 0.3250 -1114.80 7014.00 0.8411 1025 3507 .2923 2.2816
0.3250 0.3500 -590.20 5980.00 0.9013 987 2990 .3301 2.5769
0.3500 0.3750 -957.90 5204.00 0.8159 824 2602 .3167 2.4721
0.3750 0.4000 -649.50 4404.00 0.8525 763 2202 .3465 2.7049
0.4000 0.4250 -618.00 3996.00 0.8453 713 1998 .3569 2.7858
0.4250 0.4500 -349.20 3440.00 0.8985 682 1720 .3965 3.0953
0.4500 9999.0000 -3809.20 25576.00 0.8511 6195 12788 .4844 3.7817
Although it's not reflected in the above data sample, you can improve the accuracy a little by including pct of money bet on each horse from other pools such as exa, dd, p3, and p4, etc.
Imo, where Benter, Woods, and others really separated themselves from everyday horseplayers was using advanced stat tools to combine the before the odds are known part with the win likelihood from tote part into a fundamental model.
A strong fundamental model combined with CRW allows them to:
Identify and bet likely overlays instantly just before race off.
Not just in the win pool, but in every pool.
And with proper ticket structure based on the preference order or the way their fundamental model ranks out the horses in each field.
And with optimal bet sizing for individual wagers given estimated pool size.
Keep in mind, unlike the everyday horseplayer, players or teams with a good fundamental model aren't limited to spot plays or angles.
Any horse that steps into a starting gate can be an overlay
if the price is right.
If a field of eight is facing up to the gate and the 5th and 7th ranked horses in their preference order are both obvious overlays based on current odds and their fundamental model:
They are betting those two horses down. Instantly and according to formula.
If in the same race their fundamental model sees 3 underbet exacta combinations, 2 underbet trifecta combinations, and 4 underbet double combinations involving the current favorite:
They are betting those specific combinations according to formula.
Imo, what they are doing is way beyond what everyday players are capabable of.
They are making an accurate EV or expected value calculation just before race off.
Everything above break even point (with rebate factored in) gets bet.
Everything not above break even point gets passed.
-jp
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