Handicapping Method

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

Thanks for looking out for me Mike!

Is a ticket stub picture posting OK?
Are results without the WHY considered redboarding?

I will head to Selections with a rolling daily thread for each week. Is Monday - Sunday considered OK?

My pen & paper method is about 33% big wins, 33% chalk, and 33% losers. Every 3 races costs me $108, but if a big win is 5x, chalk is .5x, and loser is 0x ... I still net +$20 per race or +55% ROI. Not bad?

September 1st of last year you came here asking for a way to separate the contenders in a race. And, less than 8 months later...you are netting $500 a day with an ROI ranging between +55% and +100%! And you are asking us if your accomplishments are..."NOT BAD"? Friend...there isn't a guy here who wouldn't trade places with you.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

September 1st of last year you came here asking for a way to separate the contenders in a race. And, less than 8 months later...you are netting $500 a day with an ROI ranging between +55% and +100%! And you are asking us if your accomplishments are..."NOT BAD"? Friend...there isn't a guy here who wouldn't trade places with you.

You know, I must give credit where it is due, Prof.Factor did spend a few days with me last year to help get my head around the relevance of Pace. Dave Schwartz too!

Thanks fellas.

Without some consideration of pace, and them urging me toward the marginality of it on the forum -- I probably would of shrugged it off again this year.

[mikesal57]

Fool....

I'm trying to give you the benefit of doubt here......
Either your being naive or pulling our legs....
You post , below, this race 45 minutes after its ran....

You list every horse but 2 long odds , without giving us
the actual bets....
You are telling us nothing !!!!

Please think before you post or move on......

Last time before the demon comes out....

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Fool....

I'm trying to give you the benefit of doubt here......
Either your being naive or pulling our legs....
You post , below, this race 45 minutes after its ran....

You list every horse but 2 long odds , without giving us
the actual bets....
You are telling us nothing !!!!

Please think before you post or move on......

Last time before the demon comes out....

Why is he posting so late? Didn't he say that it only takes him 5 minutes to handicap a race?

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Why is he posting so late? Didn't he say that it only takes him 5 minutes to handicap a race?

LOL....I think we have another "Winner" here Thask

[mikesal57]

5 mins to cap...

hundreds made.....

Prof. Factor...


Here it comes....RPM

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Fool....

I'm trying to give you the benefit of doubt here......
Either your being naive or pulling our legs....
You post , below, this race 45 minutes after its ran....

You list every horse but 2 long odds , without giving us
the actual bets....
You are telling us nothing !!!!

Please think before you post or move on......

Last time before the demon comes out....

I posted that Selections race 5 minutes before it ran.
Chalk came up, nothing I can do about that.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Fool....

I'm trying to give you the benefit of doubt here......
Either your being naive or pulling our legs....
You post , below, this race 45 minutes after its ran....

You list every horse but 2 long odds , without giving us
the actual bets....
You are telling us nothing !!!!

Please think before you post or move on......

Last time before the demon comes out....

The race ran at 2:38pm my time, I placed the bet at 2:25pm and then I posted here at 2:30pm -- it shows as 5:30pm your time because your East and I'm West.

I think I'm caught up in some sort of "prove it" thing, but when I post results I get yelled at. I came here to post about pen & paper methods. Someone was just questioning my returns, not sure what else to say. You lost me.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

I posted that Selections race 5 minutes before it ran.
Chalk came up, nothing I can do about that.

OK...my bad...Oaklawn is an hour before me...sorry

But listing every horse without actually telling us what you bet is not good


How much did you bet to get $16?

Thats the only way to judge how you did?

Time for bed...nite

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Why is he posting so late? Didn't he say that it only takes him 5 minutes to handicap a race?

I work full time, and family came to visit today.
I only had time to cap a few races, and you can only cap them so early with scratches so if I start caping 20 minutes before post time and then I start talking to someone for a few minutes before I know it its 5 MTP and then rushing to post on my computer is difficult.

Oh, I guess Prof. Factor is a loser, he has no rep and 107 posts.
Well, either way he was helpful last year, same with Schwartz.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

I work full time, and family came to visit today.
I only had time to cap a few races, and you can only cap them so early with scratches so if I start caping 20 minutes before post time and then I start talking to someone for a few minutes before I know it its 5 MTP and then rushing to post on my computer is difficult.

Oh, I guess Prof. Factor is a loser, he has no rep and 107 posts.
Well, either way he was helpful last year, same with Schwartz.

My friend...I want you to know that I believe everything that you say here...and I wish you all the best going forward. And, I've read enough of Prof. Factor to know that he is one smart guy. His limited posting here speaks highly of him...as far as I am concerned.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

OK...my bad...Oaklawn is an hour before me...sorry

But listing every horse without actually telling us what you bet is not good


How much did you bet to get $16?

Thats the only way to judge how you did?

Time for bed...nite

Aren't selections my selections?
Who I think could win, who I think might hit the board, and who to avoid?
You can't win the big Superfecta tickets betting chalk, while some low odds horses are required to win. I use a method I call Rounded Half Carry, which is similar to Schwartz field splitting of Half+1. This means my tickets end up with around 7 horses on them, regardless of field size. 8 field race? 7 horses. Kentucky derby? 7 horses. They are reduces on top to cut the cost down, with an emphasis on longshots. Worst case horses are too difficult to reduce, and I can end up with an 8 horse ticket, or I will skip the race all together if its pushing for more.

I'm just confused as to the difference between selections and "give me your exact tickets"? When I looked at other Selection threads it was a lot of 4 pick horses per race for an entire card.

I think I'm starting to see a theme here in that people don't like results posted and want before the race start bets -- a forum etiquette I missed. All I can do is post pictures of my tickets or tomorrow I'll get a running thread in Selections if I can post before they go.

But what I said earlier are statements, I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone other than answering what was asked.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My friend...I want you to know that I believe everything that you say here...and I wish you all the best going forward. And, I've read enough of Prof. Factor to know that he is one smart guy. His limited posting here speaks highly of him...as far as I am concerned.

I mean, I agree, I thought his insight was useful, he seemed really nice too. Mike doesn't seem to think so, so I don't know. He and I talked for a few days straight in 2019 before I boxed my notebooks.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

5 mins to cap...

hundreds made.....

Prof. Factor...


Here it comes....RPM

@thaskalos I guess I just don't know what Mike is saying here.


Is he questioning Prof.Factor? To me he was extremely helpful, and that's why I gave credit where it was due. The loser comment was sarcasm after Mike's post.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

@thaskalos I guess I just don't know what Mike is saying here.


Is he questioning Prof.Factor? To me he was extremely helpful, and that's why I gave credit where it was due. The loser comment was sarcasm after Mike's post.

Who cares what Mike is saying? You seem to be a young guy, with a full-time job...and an exciting hobby that nets you an extra $500 a day. If I were you...what Mike really means would be the furthest thing from my mind.