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Old 11-19-2012, 12:47 PM   #31
horses4courses
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Workout times

I pretty much always ignore workout times.
Recent, regular, workout patterns are useful to see.
Times (unless witnessed and verified by a good clocker) are of little meaning.
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Old 11-19-2012, 01:09 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by rubicon55
Gus, regarding ignoring a horses last race out what would you say if that last race was that particular horses new top speed rating. I have not been able to verify via databsae but some texts suggest a top figure last time or worse yet a double top figure (2 races in a row) is a formula for a "bounce" due to maximum efforts being exerted, soley based on that horses race history. Bounce theory may be just old school imaginations by others but some think it is a real factor for consideration, not the only factor. In this case would you still ignore the last race? Throw out as a non-contender or maybe a repeater?
To me, the bounce theory is real...and I have refined it somewhat to fit my own beliefs on the topic.

I expect a horse to bounce if his top effort last race was accompanied by a top PACE figure as well as a top speed figure. Otherwise, a horse would have to have back-to-back top efforts before I would consider it a bounce candidate. I have found that the most likely horse to bounce is the one whose last two speed figures are the highest ones in its body...and whose most recent speed figure is lower than the one that preceded it.
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Old 11-19-2012, 01:17 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by eurocapper
I think thaskalos threw a curveball at me...

For bounce I tend to use significant lifetime high and short rest myself.
No...I was being serious.

In many cases...I really do feel that the horse's last race could be completely disregarded. It could be because of all the handicapping books I have read...which instructed me to always use the horse's last race to rate its ability, unless the horse's last effort could in some way be excused.

I have found that horses routinely run bad last races, without any excuse...and then they often revert to their winning ways.
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Old 11-19-2012, 02:22 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
No...I was being serious.

In many cases...I really do feel that the horse's last race could be completely disregarded. It could be because of all the handicapping books I have read...which instructed me to always use the horse's last race to rate its ability, unless the horse's last effort could in some way be excused.

I have found that horses routinely run bad last races, without any excuse...and then they often revert to their winning ways.
Someone else would have to argue this, for me it's the kind of mistake that I have put in my past myself (mixing betting and handicapping).
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Old 11-19-2012, 02:47 PM   #35
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