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Old 03-13-2019, 04:15 PM   #1
Blenheim
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Rebel Stakes PPs: Race 8

Rebel Stakes PPs: Race 8
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Old 03-13-2019, 06:00 PM   #2
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Hard to look past the and for the win spot. I’ll look to use the and underneath.

I’m thinking hard about doing an ice cold exacta of / Improbable being out of City Zip doesn’t give me much confidence and any distance longer than he will see on Saturday.
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:10 PM   #3
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Definitely the weaker of the two divisions. I think the only speed will be the 7 Classy John. I agree the City Zip sire has me questioning the stamina of Improbable. Galilean has been facing state breds and with the whole uncertainty of the California horses coming to Hot Springs, I would rather play for an upset at the price and look at the 7 horse going gate to wire or looking at the 2 to take a step up. He has hit the board in both the Arkansas 3 year old preps. Remember the 4 horse is trained by a trainer who has shipped in to town and pulled several upsets including MyBoyJack and Sonneteer.

2 7 over 2 7 8 9 over 2 4 7 8 9

The race for the day for me is the Azeri. In it you have the only horse alive to beat Monomoy Girl last year, the winners of the last two Alabama Stakes and the winner of last years Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf. It might be the best 6 horse you will see in years.
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:59 PM   #4
Robert Fischer
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Improbable is the most likely Derby winner at this point, and maybe another Triple Crown winner.

Bob Baffert is extremely lucky in that he has yet another once-in-a-generation athlete.
I know 'horse years' are different, but AP/Arrogate/Justify(may have missed a couple)/Improbable ... seems like even in horse years those are quick 'generations'

He's a class act and a hall of famer.


I don't like much that isn't obvious here. to crush.

Hollendorfer can grab some points with the . Bris calls him an 'E8', but those were all slow paces. He surely can be a stalker/presser if given a real pace. No need to do anything other than cruise and out-class the others today. Pratt is a fairly reliable dude, and Hollendorfer has a strong grasp of the game. I think there's a fairly high probability that they understand this.

The only non-obvious thing I can say is that I like that the takes blinkers back off. That is a good sign for someone looking to kick in the back door. Nice to see the first-call landing here as well.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 03-14-2019 at 06:06 PM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 03:41 PM   #5
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He's the One . . .

Lookin' forward to watchin' Improbable; hope he has improved. Would be nice to see Galilean hook em' and not back out of it . . .

Improbable to win.
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Old 03-15-2019, 05:43 PM   #6
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I have tunnel vision with the chalk here. He's not a mortal lock but even an effort below his last is enough to beat this contingent. I have a hard time making a good case for any of the others. I was not that impressed with Galilean's last effort. I thought the King Glorious was superior but that was last year. A repeat effort with a slight dip from Improbable might just put him in the photo. The ran a respectable 3rd against Improbable after being forced quite wide. He gets Money Mike. I have a soft spot for the non-Phalaris horses which this one gets from the Tiznow damsire. It has has Cherokee Rose in tail female. The top side is more speed oriented but this distance shouldn't be a problem. The always shows up so I won't totally exclude here. Just about anything else could hit bottom of the tri or super play.

Trifecta // with a //ALL backup
Use ALL under my primary tri play for super.
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Old 03-15-2019, 09:05 PM   #7
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Improbable is the glamor horse here and rightly so. But sometimes I get contrarian and want to be exotic... so I'm going with the Asmussen horses (Long Range Toddy and Ninth Street), plus Easy Shot. Keith Desormeaux has surprised everyone before and can do it again. I hope Galilean does well, but I'm not going to bet him.
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Old 03-15-2019, 10:22 PM   #8
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I've been riding with Long Range Toddy all year. . . . . just like I rode with Combatant all year

I'll do it again --- he very well could get a favorable trip in this field.

I'm against Galilean, so I'll play it something like:

Key box /

Tri: //

Tri: //
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Old 03-16-2019, 01:07 AM   #9
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Galilean is a talented Colt.
I like him Saturday.
And down the road also....
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Old 03-16-2019, 02:01 AM   #10
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stand out.


isn't a walkover, and then the is a very appetizing bomb.
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Old 03-16-2019, 08:34 AM   #11
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Does Classy John have a chance to hold off improbable in the stretch. Looks like if he gets on the lead he can be tough
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Old 03-16-2019, 10:26 AM   #12
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Tried but can't see past Improbable. Going to take the the 2
Long Range Toddy for second also the 1 Extra Hope.
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Old 03-16-2019, 06:17 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest View Post
Tried but can't see past Improbable. Going to take the the 2
Long Range Toddy for second also the 1 Extra Hope.
One of the few times I didn't bet the price to win and reverse the exacta and it cost me.
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Old 03-16-2019, 06:38 PM   #14
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Very impressed with Improbable, right now thats who I would want in the Derby, he takes any step at all off this he is gonna be ultra tough.
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Old 03-16-2019, 06:45 PM   #15
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After that thread we had last week, I was wondering if Vic Stauffer had lost a step (I haven't been listening to his calls this year), but he delivered a pitch perfect call of this race, including the wide trip of Improbable and the move by Long Range Toddy.
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