Fountain of Youth Stakes PPs

[taxicab]

I've been waiting for this race.
I've planned all along to bet against Hidden Scroll.
Handicapping 101 is not his friend.
His race could be counterfeit because he benefitted from:
A muddy track he was sure to love via his breeding.
A strong inside bias on Pegasus day.
A speed friendly track on Pegasus day.
More:
He's a once raced maiden winner trying a very strong Grade 2 event.
He's never gone two turns.
I wouldn't like him @ 5-1.
At even money or so I feel obliged to bet in to this race against him.
I think the race goes through Vekoma/Global Campaign......they both look like the goods......might look in to Bourbon War as a third carry in the P-3's/P-4.
If I'm wrong I lose a couple hundred.
If I'm right I clear four digits.
Priced in.....

[Blenheim]

I took a quick look, my preliminary:

Signalman looks to be the one to beat, trainer says he is using a 400k G2 Stakes race as a prep. Vekoma figures second best; workout video shows his left front troubling him. Epic Dreamer, if he can slow down just a skosh, w/that smokin' work, he could go wire to wire. Hidden Scroll, I figure he goes w/Epic Dreamer and them two open up daylight . . . fun race to handicap thus far.

[Robert Fischer]

High Amplitude (pictured outside) is carrying good weight and showed ability in debut, while chasing headliner Hidden Scroll.

There's no way that he'll be 9/2 fourth choice as he is in the morning line. He's 'obvious', and a bunch of players will have committed to betting him back. Expect at least co-favoritism, maybe 2-1/5-2 if the public doesn't go overboard.

There's a long shot chance that we'll be comparing the 10th race to the Fountain of Youth.

[f2tornado]

I gave this race a second look to avoid some tunnel vision with Hidden Scroll who posted a 115 Equibase figure last out. Vekoma got a 110 at Aqueduct and Bourbon War a 107 on the Gulf surface. Signalman and Global Campaign are popular names right now but would need to improve by at least 8 points to contend with the figures above. The KY Jockey Cup thus far has not proven to show the class it had at this point last year and Signalman only garnered a 92 Equibase figure there which was actually a few points less than his BCJ run. He might need a 15 point bump to pull this off. Certainly possible with the leap from 2 to 3 but not typical. Global Campaign ran a respectable 98 and 99 this year. Perhaps he could have posted a larger figure last out with more urging. Regardless, his 3/4 to mile and final half panel fractions showed declaration. The horse is disadvantaged by the 8 hole given the speed of Vekoma and Hidden Scroll to his inside. Gulf is generally not kind to wide trips. I don't think the speed melts down here but if it does then Bourbon War has an opportunity as he has the strongest LP of the lot.

Davona Dale/FOY double /. Jaywalk will be tough to beat.
Single the on other horizontal P3/P4 type gimmicks while using the on defensive plays.
// trifecta
/ exacta box
Win bet on if the ML is accurate. Smaller win bet on .

[MNslappy]

Just rewatched the Nashua. Boy does Vekoma look just like his daddy when he's running, holy cow.

[jay68802]

Hidden Scroll The negatives were pointed out earlier, loose on the lead Maiden winner, in the slop, first time at two turns and against winners. His works seem to indicate that he will be fine without the slop. Rosario wants to be here for this horse. (Wasn't he on Game Winner?) Prove it race for this one.

Bourbon War Has came with a big run in last two. Ortiz is no slouch. Have to wonder if the big closing run was due to the slow paces he got. Will not see the soft fractions here and if he tries to stay within 4 lengths of the pace will not have the closing kick.

Vekoma Two races are almost like twins, handled a hot pace and was able to win. Did not look impressive doing it but he has so far shown the heart to step up.

Signalman Public has disrespected this guy. Used the late ran to early in the BC and could not finish it. Gets a good set up here and if he gets the trip can upset.

Global Campaign Has done nothing wrong yet but has not really been challenged. Think he will get money and the race does not set up well for him. Wrapped up in both races might indicate that he has more to offer but not willing to jump on the bandwagon. Prove it race for this one also.

Union's Destiny Was that last effort a good effort or a good figure earned while chasing? So far has only won on the lead and the outside draw is not what you would want. The trainer usually does not have this kind and all in all this becomes a very interesting runner. If the last race is legit he is a contender here. Chance for a good price here.

[letswastemoney]

The most overrated horse in this field is Global Campaign.

His TimeformUS numbers only make him a secondary contender, and he likely will get wiped out by the first turn.

If DRF Beyers are your speed figures, he's a complete tossout.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

The most overrated horse in this field is Global Campaign.

His Brisnet figures rank below a couple bombers in here too. His Equibase figures are compare a bit better but still not good enough to contend without substantial improvement. Consider longshot Everfast hit the wire a couple tenths faster a week earlier in the Holy Bull. I do think he had at least a little more in the tank in his last start however he was able to dictate the pace after the second call. I'm gonna let him beat me in the exacta and it's tempting to toss from the tri given the competition here.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Bourbon War is the interesting one for me. Keeps Irad after getting back to form after a puzzling Remsen. Tapit on top is always good, but what is intriguing is the My Conquestadory/Artie Schiller on bottom. He was entered on turf 1st out, but it was switched to dirt, and he ran solid at 17/1. He'll certainly need some front end help, but is the best closer in the field with a Dirt/Turf pedigree.

Obviously Hidden Scroll is the freak to beat, and will be bet hard.

Vekoma should be 2nd choice. And at 9/2 or so, I can't argue anybody that makes that play.

Signalman is a complete toss for me. Already 5 races in and screams Solomini to me.

A couple bombs I'll include are the Epic Dreamer. That was a nice Holy Bull where he did all the early heavy work, and there is little doubt he'll be sent. Frosted Grace has a single 2 turn race to his credit, and that was pretty good at this very track. His Swale wasn't good but also wasn't horrible either. This will be his 2nd as a 3YO, and I'll give him a chance on bottoms of exotics at 50/1 or more.

Code of Honor is troubling in how he didn't close a step into that pace in the Mucho Macho Man. Sure we can make excuses, but I'm not buying. :27 and 1 the last 2 furlongs and he lost ground as the 4/5 chalk. Pass.

[Secondbest]

Seems to be a little like here for Bourbon War. Including me. He has the right style in race with a lot of early types. Best late pace - bris - also fastest closing time. Only problem is he will be facing a pace that's faster than any other he ran against. Vekoma is the other horse I like here.

[Parkview_Pirate]

I agree with Taxicab - Hidden Scroll may run away and hide, but the race becomes a "must play" for the value of tossing him out.

Love these three year old races, when huge swings in performances are the norm this time of year. Would love to come right back with Everfast, whom I had in several contests and with my bankroll in the Holy Bull, but wide posts in the 8.5 furlong races at GP tend not to be favorable.

Seems Code of Honor needs to be cranked up to get back on the Derby Trail....

[ubercapper]

This is the Equibase weekly feature race and although I listed the contenders in preference/probability order as:

Global Campaign
Bourbon War
Hidden Scroll
Everfast (for exotics)

I think I like Bourbon War a bit better. However, even though Global Campaign's figure (Equibase, as well as TFUS as pointed out earlier in the thread) are low compared to some others, three year olds have potential to jump a lot (10 points) from one race to the next and considering his breeding (Curlin out of the dam of Bolt d'Oro and Sonic Mule) he's hard to get off as a contender.

Also, I'd sure like to use Vekoma as he is fast enough, but off the layoff I think he's giving away too much to others so I'll only put him in second on exacta tickets.



Here's the article http://www.equibase.com/content/anal...reanalysis.cfm

[Blenheim]

Hidden Scroll Gallops @ Gulfstream Park March 1st

Looks good; big ol' strappin' young colt getting a feel for the Gulfstream Park surface . . .

[Suff]

How about the card.. Gold Standard!. Shippers from all over, lots of new Kentucky horses. 100 Horses entered on Saturdays card.

The backside is bursting into the parking lot. These are new this week.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The ill-managed Gladiator King has good sprint speed, routinely setting 1/2 miles in :44-:45 range. He set a very strong pace in the Mucho Macho Man. In the Holy Bull, he took forever to load and had the outside draw anyways so failed to be a pace factor then, but he's drawn the 3-hole here.

Ill-managed is right. The FOY will be Gladiator King's fifth race since January 1. That works out to a race every 12 days. He ran six races between Sept. 23 and Dec. 15 of last year, averaging a race every 16 days. He won't be 3 until April 20.