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Old 02-24-2019, 07:07 PM   #31
JerryBoyle
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Is drawing mob interest a serious concern for successful horse race betting? I could understand if being a successful sports bettor were, because it was illegal for the longest time. You couldn't go to the authorities and say you're being shaken down.
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Old 02-24-2019, 08:33 PM   #32
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Usually I agree with most of what you post about gambling, but so many falso assumptions in this post, had to reply. First, most people I know making serious money from gambling do everything possible to stay below the radar, for, I think obvious reasons. If you're talking only about these guys who have achieved public recognition, that was only after many years of huge profits and they did everything possible to avoid the limelight. First and foremost, they don't want to get cut off from betting, but, at that level, they don't want to attract mob interest. Anyone who's seen the Aaron Sorkin film 'Molly's Game' knows what I mean.

As far as teaching what they do, it should be clear that it's all about the math. There's no mystery about the tools they're using. And contrary to your claim, many of them teach. Benter has lectured on his methods and universities worldwide -- one of them is posted in this thread -- and he has coached PdD candidates at Cambridge and elsewhere. Ed Thorp has written books and lectured on his work in blackjack and the hedge fund world. Ken Uston was teaching throughout his life. But, in the case of the horseracing models, at least a background of college-level math is required to even get in the game.

And even for these guys who became successful, it was far from a walk in the park. If you listened to the Ziemba podcast, he discusses how difficult it is to succeed now, especially given the increased competition, and says it would require an investment of ca. $1,000,000 and a year of research just to get an operation off the ground -- almost exactly what Benter described to me in the early aughts, when he was helping to set up teams in the U.S., but only as a consultant.

So, it's possible that some members of the general public can benefit from learning from these gamblers, but only a very small number.
Gee, Lansdale...by now I thought for sure that you'd be able to tell when I am kidding. I even enclosed a smiley face, to show my true intentions with that post. Wasn't it I who narrated with approval a situation that happened to me when I met the renowned David Sklansky in a Las Vegas sportsbook several years ago...and he told me that he felt an obligation to share what he knows about poker because he wanted to keep the game growing? OF COURSE there are winning gamblers who share what they know. For heaven's sake, the name "thaskalos" that I have chosen for my participation here is the Greek word for "teacher". I have more than 20,000 posts here...and a healthy percentage of them have been of the "teaching" variety. Do you suppose that I consider myself to be one of those who "can't do"?

You say that you "usually agree with most" of what I say here about gambling. Would you mind sharing with me what else about gambling you find yourself in disagreement with me on? Just because I have supported myself and my family solely by my gambling winnings over the last 14 years doesn't mean that I am not willing to learn from the likes who hang around with the Bill Benters of our sport.
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Old 02-24-2019, 09:30 PM   #33
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Ken Uston was teaching throughout his life.
Don't get me started on Ken Uston. He ruined things for everybody.
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:49 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by JerryBoyle View Post
Is drawing mob interest a serious concern for successful horse race betting? I could understand if being a successful sports bettor were, because it was illegal for the longest time. You couldn't go to the authorities and say you're being shaken down.
I should have reversed the order on this. Re gamblers wanting to stay below the radar, the primary reason is to avoid being banned/barred. This is a common occurrence in blackjack, where Benter, Woods, and Zjelko started their careers, and was said to be one of the reasons they moved on to handicapping, where very few players are winners/professionals so this is usually not a problem. However, given the magnitude of his winning, Benter was eventually barred from playing in HK, but was able to return after making some type of charitable contribution. The second reason would be government interest/taxes -- Zjelko had some kind of dispute with the Australian government in 2008, but also worked something out with them. The possibility of criminal extortion would be a distant third, and I would think only in the instance of operations with action in the tens to hundreds of millions per year -- which would apply to only a handful of people in the racing world. My guess is that this one of the reasons why Benter was in HK -- it's a relatively clean transparent place with strong law enforcement. If you look at the probems of, say Billy Walters, who is a figure of similar magnitude to these handicappers, it would be an example of what can happen. Or, as I mentioned Molly Bloom, who, for awhile, was running what seems to have been running the biggest poker game in the country.
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:52 PM   #35
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Gee, Lansdale...by now I thought for sure that you'd be able to tell when I am kidding. I even enclosed a smiley face, to show my true intentions with that post. Wasn't it I who narrated with approval a situation that happened to me when I met the renowned David Sklansky in a Las Vegas sportsbook several years ago...and he told me that he felt an obligation to share what he knows about poker because he wanted to keep the game growing? OF COURSE there are winning gamblers who share what they know. For heaven's sake, the name "thaskalos" that I have chosen for my participation here is the Greek word for "teacher". I have more than 20,000 posts here...and a healthy percentage of them have been of the "teaching" variety. Do you suppose that I consider myself to be one of those who "can't do"?

You say that you "usually agree with most" of what I say here about gambling. Would you mind sharing with me what else about gambling you find yourself in disagreement with me on? Just because I have supported myself and my family solely by my gambling winnings over the last 14 years doesn't mean that I am not willing to learn from the likes who hang around with the Bill Benters of our sport.
Seems like I wasn't the only one in this thread who took your earlier post literally, but, regardless, it seems like we agree on this issue.
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Old 03-03-2019, 10:21 PM   #36
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I should have reversed the order on this. Re gamblers wanting to stay below the radar, the primary reason is to avoid being banned/barred. This is a common occurrence in blackjack, where Benter, Woods, and Zjelko started their careers, and was said to be one of the reasons they moved on to handicapping, where very few players are winners/professionals so this is usually not a problem. However, given the magnitude of his winning, Benter was eventually barred from playing in HK, but was able to return after making some type of charitable contribution. The second reason would be government interest/taxes -- Zjelko had some kind of dispute with the Australian government in 2008, but also worked something out with them. The possibility of criminal extortion would be a distant third, and I would think only in the instance of operations with action in the tens to hundreds of millions per year -- which would apply to only a handful of people in the racing world. My guess is that this one of the reasons why Benter was in HK -- it's a relatively clean transparent place with strong law enforcement. If you look at the probems of, say Billy Walters, who is a figure of similar magnitude to these handicappers, it would be an example of what can happen. Or, as I mentioned Molly Bloom, who, for awhile, was running what seems to have been running the biggest poker game in the country.
Below a link to the film I mentioned re Molly Bloom. Interesting cautionary tale.

N.B. Press triangular start button on still image, per usual, not the 'Play Now' bar above. For movie fans here, thousands of free, legal films at ffilms.org.



https://ffilms.org/mollys-game-2017/
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Old 03-03-2019, 10:39 PM   #37
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Below a link to the film I mentioned re Molly Bloom. Interesting cautionary tale.

N.B. Press triangular start button on still image, per usual, not the 'Play Now' bar above. For movie fans here, thousands of free, legal films at ffilms.org.



https://ffilms.org/mollys-game-2017/
Thank you for that website.
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Old 03-04-2019, 06:58 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by lansdale View Post
Below a link to the film I mentioned re Molly Bloom. Interesting cautionary tale.

N.B. Press triangular start button on still image, per usual, not the 'Play Now' bar above. For movie fans here, thousands of free, legal films at ffilms.org.



https://ffilms.org/mollys-game-2017/
Liked the movie a lot. I guess my point was, in my opinion, the reason she was shaken down was because at that point in time she had switched to running an illegal game via taking a rake. She couldn't just go to the cops and say "hey a couple of mobsters are looking for a piece of my illegal card game".

I'm curious what legitimate avenues are available to business owners who are running entirely legal, but mostly cash businesses, who get shaken down. By legitimate I mean even if you go to the cops, will that force you to have to move and/or shut down your business? If so, I don't necessarily consider it a legit option.
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Old 03-04-2019, 01:29 PM   #39
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The worst part about it is that the FBI has unlimited resources to keep going after you, and they pretty much pay no cost at all, being unelected officials. Several people who were innocent of charges and not liked by the likes of the traitors in the FBI were ruined before the current headline nothing burger investigation were bankrupted in the past, and many were much cleaner than Molly Bloom. I frequently try to tell people just how dangerous this is for you and me, because if an entity can just go after a man and look for a crime, given the legal code monstrosity, they can always find one. That's why most charges are due to total BS like "lying" or some other not-so-real charge. It's really disgusting and wrong.
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Old 03-04-2019, 01:33 PM   #40
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As an aside, I know professional sports gamblers, but I'm not talking about the on the radar Vegas types. Like lansdale said, there's a double win to being fairly anonymous = harder to track and of course, no reporting of winnings on taxes. It's no coincidence also that crypto is, or was, fairly big with these types. Given its volatility and difficulty to predict value, it is less so but most still utilize it for offshore/ease of transfer.
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Old 03-04-2019, 03:21 PM   #41
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Had a friend tell me Saturday night that she wanted me to make a bet for her.

"Sure, let me know in advance... Are you thinking about the Derby or the Preakness coming up in May?" and she told me no, that she heard that I was doing well and that she had some bills to pay.

If you aren't directly profiting from a media venture in relation to your own personality or product based business, little good can come from publicity.

Even if everything is on the level, the less people know, the better.

If you are trying to do something like play on-site cash-in-hand to avoid income taxes, you definitely don't want to broadcast your action. You can easily end up paying your taxes in the casino parking garage...
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Old 03-04-2019, 10:37 PM   #42
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Thank you for that website.
No prob.
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Old 03-04-2019, 11:15 PM   #43
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Liked the movie a lot. I guess my point was, in my opinion, the reason she was shaken down was because at that point in time she had switched to running an illegal game via taking a rake. She couldn't just go to the cops and say "hey a couple of mobsters are looking for a piece of my illegal card game".

I'm curious what legitimate avenues are available to business owners who are running entirely legal, but mostly cash businesses, who get shaken down. By legitimate I mean even if you go to the cops, will that force you to have to move and/or shut down your business? If so, I don't necessarily consider it a legit option.
Yeah, but c'mon -- first of all the mob wouldn't be extorting her in the first place unless her game was pulling in serious coin. As far as the rake -- do you really think the Feds would have busted her for running a raked 1$/2$ game in Steubenville, OH? And BTW, I'm pretty sure the rake was still much less a factor in her bust than the $100 million being laundered through the game by the Russian mob (see link below). Haven't seen the movie in awhile, but I believe this was downplayed, if mentioned at all. As far as the laundering went, she really was clueless -- she had just gotten way in over her head and lost control of the game once she moved it to New York, which is a much tougher environment on both sides of the law.

Re your other question, this is pretty open-ended. I'm not especially knowledgeable re mob, but it must be obvious to you that they still control a number of industries in various parts of the country, even in their weakened state. I think, in general, the answer would depend on the location, the specific type of business, and the level of corruption and/or competence of local police and public officials. Also, not only cash-businesses but industries with minimal regulation are prime mob targets. If you ever seen 'Goodfellas' or watched few episodes of 'The Sopranos,' they're very well-researched.




https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molly_Bloom_(author)
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Old 03-05-2019, 11:01 PM   #44
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Yeah, but c'mon -- first of all the mob wouldn't be extorting her in the first place unless her game was pulling in serious coin. As far as the rake -- do you really think the Feds would have busted her for running a raked 1$/2$ game in Steubenville, OH? And BTW, I'm pretty sure the rake was still much less a factor in her bust than the $100 million being laundered through the game by the Russian mob (see link below). Haven't seen the movie in awhile, but I believe this was downplayed, if mentioned at all. As far as the laundering went, she really was clueless -- she had just gotten way in over her head and lost control of the game once she moved it to New York, which is a much tougher environment on both sides of the law.

Re your other question, this is pretty open-ended. I'm not especially knowledgeable re mob, but it must be obvious to you that they still control a number of industries in various parts of the country, even in their weakened state. I think, in general, the answer would depend on the location, the specific type of business, and the level of corruption and/or competence of local police and public officials. Also, not only cash-businesses but industries with minimal regulation are prime mob targets. If you ever seen 'Goodfellas' or watched few episodes of 'The Sopranos,' they're very well-researched.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molly_Bloom_(author)
Sorry for the bad link -- the one below should work. I've pasted in the relevant information. Another link to 'Hollywood Reporter' take.

''In 2011, one of Bloom's games in Los Angeles was shut down as part of a bankruptcy investigation into a Ponzi scheme run by Bradley Ruderman, one of the players.[17] Bloom, who had received money from Ruderman as part of the game, was accused of receiving $473,000 from Ruderman's bank to settle his debts and sued by the bankruptcy trustee for $473,200, but she denied that she was involved in organizing illegal gambling.[17] Bank records showed 19 transfers to Bloom in 2007 and 2008 for amounts up to $57,500.[13]

On April 16, 2013, Bloom was arrested and charged along with 33 others as part of a $100 million Russian mob money laundering and illegal sports gambling operation.[2] Preet Bharara, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, charged 12 people with racketeering. Others were charged with money laundering, extortion, fraud and operating illegal poker rooms in New York City. Bloom, who was 34 at the time, faced a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison, six years of supervised release, a fine of $1.5 million or twice the amount gained from the crimes or twice the amount lost by victims, and a $200 special assessment.[18][19]

In May 2014, Bloom pleaded guilty to a lesser charge and was sentenced to one year of probation, a $200,000 fine, and 200 hours of community service.[20] At the sentencing, Bloom's lawyer, Jim Walden, told the court that Bloom was in severe debt which included forfeiting $125,000 in poker proceeds as part of the plea. He stated that Bloom had "been ordered into the gambling business" by her boss at a Los Angeles real estate company,[21] then went on to create her own illegal poker game in New York in 2009."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molly_Bloom_(author))

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...russian-440482
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Old 09-05-2020, 01:51 PM   #45
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Horse owned by Ziemba is entered in the last race at Saratoga on Monday. Trained by Pletcher.
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