proportional show betting negative pool = guaranteed profit??

[ribjig]

> The more I thought about this, the more I realized that it would *work!
"*" means provided:...

Eliminate your: #1-partially #2 completely #3 completely -- as caveats:
a. the bettor aka NPMM (Negative Pool Market Maker) bets ONLY at track windows at very last possible moment to inhibit reactionary-longshot bets
b. NPMM goes only to tracks where there are certain to be multiple
very short favorites (say, 1/2 or shorter) in one race card

Summary: not betting via ADWs, betting last seconds AT track, very short favorites only...

Hey Rinaldo, Mikey, Chico, Marco, Franco, Rico, Emilio, is he getting it?

yes he is starting to get it

AND KEEP IN MIND ITS THE DOUBTING COUNTER-LONGSHOT
BETTORS WHO ARE HELPING US WHEN HEAVY FAVORITES ARE
PAYING $2.10 & $2.20 IN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF INVESTING EVENTS!!!! despite their intentions...

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by ribjig

> The more I thought about this, the more I realized that it would *work!
"*" means provided:...

Eliminate your: #1-partially #2 completely #3 completely -- as caveats:
a. the bettor aka NPMM (Negative Pool Market Maker) bets ONLY at track windows at very last possible moment to inhibit reactionary-longshot bets
b. NPMM goes only to tracks where there are certain to be multiple
very short favorites (say, 1/2 or shorter) in one race card

Summary: not betting via ADWs, betting last seconds AT track, very short favorites only...

Hey Rinaldo, Mikey, Chico, Marco, Franco, Rico, Emilio, is he getting it?

yes he is starting to get it

How long do you think it will take to do the data grab, make calculations and place the bet? Good luck to you if you think you can do it as they start loading. Which leads into the next problem, getting your short favs, you do realize that a vast majority of the money comes in very late, so you can try to wait to the absolute last second to make your decision, but you'll never get your bet in, or you can make your decision at 1 or 2 MTP but of course those odds are effectively place holders only at smaller tracks. You'll get stuck on horses that are high favs and thus really bad bridgejumping bets with high -EV's

[ribjig]

> How long do you think it will take to do the data grab, make calculations and place the bet?

6 entries & an iPad, baby!!!
20 seconds + 20 seconds, baby...
Maybe less!!

Also, multiple NPMM's at same track will NOT be
hurting each other, they will be reinforcing 99%
show $$ on heavy favorites!!!

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by Some_One

How long do you think it will take to do the data grab, make calculations and place the bet? Good luck to you if you think you can do it as they start loading. Which leads into the next problem, getting your short favs, you do realize that a vast majority of the money comes in very late, so you can try to wait to the absolute last second to make your decision, but you'll never get your bet in, or you can make your decision at 1 or 2 MTP but of course those odds are effectively place holders only at smaller tracks. You'll get stuck on horses that are high favs and thus really bad bridgejumping bets with high -EV's

Whenever I see bridge jumpers it has never taken less than three minutes to get all the money in. I assume that is because logistics dictates it can't be done any faster.

If your calculations are correct that this system guarantees a profit, it doesn't matter which horse gets the lion's share of the show bet. It doesn't have to be a heavy favorite. The only important thing is one horse gets a sufficiently high percentage of the show pool, whatever you determine that percentage to be. So your only dilemma is figuring out what total show pool will be to determine how much needs to be added to make the bet a guaranteed profit

[ribjig]

Do major tracks have advance pay system?
(make deposit in advance, then use credit to bet)
Or are there upgraded lounges where bigger bets
are common & tellers are fast with big bankrolls??

[Dave Schwartz]

Do major tracks have advance pay system?
(make deposit in advance, then use credit to bet)
Or are there upgraded lounges where bigger bets
are common & tellers are fast with big bankrolls??

You betting as much money as you do, I would think that you already knew those answers.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

You betting as much money as you do, I would think that you already knew those answers.

DISAGREE
WITH WHAT
I SAID?
THEN YOU
MUST REREAD
THE THREAD...

[Track Collector]

I only skimmed this thread, but here is what I know/believe to be true. Please excuse where I duplicate correct points already made.

-- The concept (that once and a great while the show pools are so skewed towards an extremely heavy favorite that one can bet proportionately in such a way as to guarantee a profit regardless of the race outcome, perhaps up to 2%-3%) is COMPLETELY TRUE.

-- The reason for this mathematical possibility is based on the requirement that tracks must meet minimum payouts on winning wagers (i.e. $2.10 or $2.20), even if the true calculated payout is something like $2.0047!

-- When horses which cause a minus pool to occur come in the money, the track or ADW booking the wager loses money. (In the very rare cases where a huge favorite runs out, they do not lose money, because the in-the-money horses are always above the minimum payout values).

-- While this should be obvious, a bettor can only take advantage of this "guaranteed win" situation, but never cause it in the first place.

-- Just a wild guess and not based on any empirical data, subject situation might occur from 1-6 times a year, so "opportunities" are next to nil.

-- In order to cash in on this when the situation does occur, one must:
--> Be able to place their wagers very late and be relatively assured that the current wager ratios do not shift far enough to mess up the originally calculated wagering "proportions".
--> Be able to place their wagers at the HOST track and be in position where the track will "accept" the wagers. (I know of no ADW that will accept the risks of losing money from large wagers made into a minus pool).

-- Surprisingly, a person can do this with a lot less money than imagined, but will not do it because the absolute amount of money to be won is considered not worth the effort. (I.E. Wager $1100 to win $16).


So, theoretically the OP is correct that "guaranteed win" situations can and do take place. Finding a way in practice to take advantage of them is a whole new ballgame and perhaps not even worth the efforts.

[ribjig]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

1. COMPLETELY TRUE
2. In the very rare cases where a huge favorite runs out
3. a bettor can only take advantage of this "guaranteed win" situation, but never cause it in the first place

"Two out of three ain't bad"
Meatloaf says:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s
(c)


If one bettor with proper bankroll can cause it,
ANY bettor with proper bankroll can cause it!!
Supporting evidence to the contrary, PLEASE...

[traynor]

Originally Posted by ribjig

"Two out of three ain't bad"
Meatloaf says:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s
(c)


If one bettor with proper bankroll can cause it,
ANY bettor with proper bankroll can cause it!!
Supporting evidence to the contrary, PLEASE...

What is it that you lack that prevents you from doing (rather than talking about, writing about, or conjecturing about doing)? Seems simple enough. If you can do it, do it.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by ribjig

Do major tracks have advance pay system?
(make deposit in advance, then use credit to bet)
Or are there upgraded lounges where bigger bets
are common & tellers are fast with big bankrolls??

Many tracks have on-track smartphone/tablet wagering. This is an advance pay system. The only potential problem would be if there is a maximum amount you can bet on one ticket necessitating having to bet too many tickets to get all the money down.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

RibJig, the fact that bettors can play TODAY in the occasional negative show pool tells me that the minor obstacles to your plan must be more significant to overcome than your posts indicate. Otherwise, this theorectical loophole would have already been exploited and rules changes would have occurred (i.e., min payout of $2.01).

But at least this thread provided a couple of laughs....

[elhelmete]

Anyone have numbers:

1) frequency of minus show pools at US tracks
2) " " broken down by total pool size
3) #1 and #2 frequency of the fave running off the board?

In my estimation, #2 would answer how "worth it" this experiment would be.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Anyone have numbers:

1) frequency of minus show pools at US tracks
2) " " broken down by total pool size
3) #1 and #2 frequency of the fave running off the board?

In my estimation, #2 would answer how "worth it" this experiment would be.

The OP is saying he could create those minus show pools himself and win by betting the right proportions on each horse, so he claims these issues don't apply to him. Apparently in his world no other bettors exist, and he can bet $100,000 in one flash right at the bell.

[ribjig]

> What is it that you lack
See post #26.
Need precise proportional betting formula.
Also needed is ability to test precise proportional formula against
precise payout calculation formula, the latter appears to be here
under "Example": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting
Especially testing rare last-moment-longshot-proportional-change scenarios to
determine degree of +ROI flexibility...
(all this testing does NOT require actual betting, just imaginary-but-plausible scenarios, including "worst anticipated" scenarios...)

> Many tracks have on-track smartphone/tablet wagering. This is an advance pay system.
Yeah baby!!! Last-moment-betting issue undeniably...
...R E S O L V E D!!!?