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03-09-2019, 12:31 PM
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#211
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Go back through your old past performances and literally pick the horse #3, or whatever number you like, and see how you do. My guess is your ROI would be .70 or lower.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
In actuality, your ROI would be whatever the track takeout was, if you were truly picking at random. To be .70 or lower, you would almost be trying to lose rather than win.........reminds of the contest we played here at PA last year where you picked a ML favorite to lose....
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It's funny if you actually bet the number 3 at Aqueduct from January 1st this year up until yesterday you are actually ahead by 2%
That was actually due to a bomb back on January 12th that paid $162.50 to win
Maybe you do a Harden step back and launch the #3's today !!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 03-09-2019 at 12:35 PM.
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03-09-2019, 12:55 PM
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#212
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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awareness = yes
bandwagon = no
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJMartin
They may not all be overlays but if the premise is correct, the value should increase on the lower priced horses making such race scenarios more profitable especially if you are not a random capper.
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It's a nice thing to be aware of.
Sometimes you have a strong enough opinion, that you can capitalize on an exotic wager, even without an opinion in one or two of the legs/slots/positions. Awareness of favorite/long-shot bias can help there in eliminating very long positions rather than using the 'all button'. I don't know if that is very different from a typical mindset, but it's nice to know the ins and outs of a system.
If you don't have an opinion, sticking to favorites is essentially 'jumping on the bandwagon'. Horse racing is a wealth concentration mechanism, designed to separate the herd from it's money.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-09-2019, 01:26 PM
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#213
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Go back through your old past performances and literally pick the horse #3, or whatever number you like, and see how you do. My guess is your ROI would be .70 or lower.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
In actuality, your ROI would be whatever the track takeout was, if you were truly picking at random. To be .70 or lower, you would almost be trying to lose rather than win.........reminds of the contest we played here at PA last year where you picked a ML favorite to lose....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
It's funny if you actually bet the number 3 at Aqueduct from January 1st this year up until yesterday you are actually ahead by 2%
That was actually due to a bomb back on January 12th that paid $162.50 to win
Maybe you do a Harden step back and launch the #3's today !!!
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To take it a step further, if you bet the #3 with Morning Lines less than 3-1 since January 1st, 2018 up until yesterday, you are actually ahead by 13% at Aqueduct
Nevin has to come through today with #3 Skylers Scramjet and pay over $4 to keep the margin at 13%
Last edited by TheOracle; 03-09-2019 at 01:29 PM.
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03-09-2019, 02:04 PM
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#214
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,467
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Big A race 3 #3 Mom I Forgive You was 2-1 ML. She just won and paid $5.20
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03-09-2019, 02:40 PM
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#215
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longshot6977
Big A race 3 #3 Mom I Forgive You was 2-1 ML. She just won and paid $5.20
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Hey Longshot
You’re right I missed it
Did you score bro?
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03-09-2019, 03:09 PM
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#216
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,467
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LOL No, I noticed it just after the race.
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03-09-2019, 03:55 PM
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#217
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longshot6977
LOL No, I noticed it just after the race.
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Let's see if Nevin can come through in the 8th race
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03-09-2019, 06:03 PM
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#218
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJMartin
Then you would lose even more money but with a lower negative ROI.
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Not if your overall bet volume stayed the same.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
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03-09-2019, 07:36 PM
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#219
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
I meant an overlay to the takeout.
After reading the responses and seeing Jeff's random bet study I have finally gotten my head around this issue. Betting equal amounts on random selections surely produces higher than takeout + breakage losses. And the reason why is because of the equal weight betting. If every horse were bet in the same percentage as actually bet in the pools the result would be a loss of the takeout + breakage.
Given that many players handicapping prowess resembles a random selection the takeaway would be to bet more on lower priced horses and less on longshots.
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Exactly. I'm sure I could have explained it better.
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03-09-2019, 07:37 PM
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#220
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Let's see if Nevin can come through in the 8th race
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Please no, not here.
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03-10-2019, 09:07 PM
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#221
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
If you pick random horses. You get random results.
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And sometimes you win handicapping contests.
Couple of weeks ago 7 players played the number 4 in all 12 races. Two of those races were max hits ($64). They all tied for the top spot in the contest. Only five spots were available, so they had to figure how to eliminate two of the "winners." I haven't heard what happened.
Obviously they picked the right "random" number. I'd seen single number players in other contests, but 7 players with the number 4 was just ridiculous.
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03-11-2019, 08:35 AM
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#222
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 163
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What handicapping contest was that?
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03-14-2019, 07:08 PM
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#223
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhenry81
What handicapping contest was that?
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One of the NHC qualifiers. Close to 2,000 entries
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