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Old 03-02-2019, 05:59 PM   #46
Fightingirish51195
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
Well done to those that had the



Bourbon War was just a tad bit too late to the scene.
He looked tremendous before the race
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:04 PM   #47
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He looked tremendous before the race

He certainly did.



That was an impressive win.
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:06 PM   #48
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I like the in here.
Shug wouldn't be here if the horse wasn't ready after the last race.

Hidden Scroll may be the best by far in here, but no way is he a good bet, even if he wins at low odds.

Vekoma is my second choice to move up thanks to a fost pace.

Bourbon War is my third choice.

/

Then Win bets on the two highest odds of the
Nice call Tom.
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:08 PM   #49
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Completely agree with the He is my play of the day. GL
Nice call Geoff!
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:17 PM   #50
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Surprised to see a lot of horse racing twitter blame Rosario for his ride on Hidden Scroll. The horse had his own way and came up empty late. No excuses. If he chokes him and loses he still gets blamed. I think if Hidden Scroll can rate a little bit he could be a star but until then let’s not blame the rider.
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Old 03-02-2019, 06:29 PM   #51
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Nice one.

I treated it like a regular race, so I didn't CRUSH the FOY as much as if I were gambling, but it made my day.

Just did some keys in multiple tris and exactas using the for his expected dream trip and his slight public overlay in a bear market. Got shut out at the bell on a little $20 Win bet on the where I was sitting there and debating/thinking the price was enough value. No big deal, but I'll try not to do that too often.

Was a nice day, now time to get off the computer and socialize and recharge for tomorrow.

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early thought

Nice race.

I think you either have to take a stand against Hidden Scroll or mostly pass the race. It's tough, because unlike horses like Maximus Mischief in the Holy Bull, or Gray Attempt in the Southwest, H.S. isn't a lock to lose. It's just a value thing. The public always overvalues potential. He's the big story and the exciting hope. All he really has is one huge, biased, win. Not a ton different than Mendelssohn's basic pattern 'shape' coming into the Derby in 2018. If Hidden Scroll wins impressively, I'll just smile and enjoy a really good 3yo. But I'll lose the bulk of my wagers.

Code of Honor is interesting as an include. Like Hidden Scroll, he's a nice animal. However CoH is a bear market, and H.S. is a bull market. Code of Honor took a shot to the chops last race (who was on Mihos? Castellano?) from the rider's crop, but he was a terrible bet that day in the Mucho Macho Man, and probably wouldn't have done much at that point.
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Old 03-02-2019, 07:32 PM   #52
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Anyone in here playing the Derby List Triple Crown Contest? I think I vaulted into the lead with a $2800 fantasy win bet on CODE OF HONOR. Touted the horse from New Jersey to British Columbia (literally), and the odds still drifted up.
I play there as Glider.
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Old 03-02-2019, 10:19 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by arw629 View Post
Surprised to see a lot of horse racing twitter blame Rosario for his ride on Hidden Scroll. The horse had his own way and came up empty late. No excuses. If he chokes him and loses he still gets blamed. I think if Hidden Scroll can rate a little bit he could be a star but until then let’s not blame the rider.
Agreed.

1st against winners in a graded, the horse ran well. He was an easy pick up in the stretch though.

Its Jaywalk that imploded. Done at the 1/4 pole.
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Old 03-02-2019, 11:21 PM   #54
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I dont see how Rosario could be blamed. It was a great effort by both the winner and Hidden Scroll. It takes a pretty special horse to go that fast and still hold on.

I think the effort by the winner will be a bit overlooked due to the setup. It was a good setup and the horse saved all the ground but the trip was less than ideal, was forced to move early into a wicked pace and still held off a formidable closer.

I will be on Hidden Scroll next time and completely against Bourbon War. The winner looked legit to me and I am not sure I would be excited to run against him again if there are other options.
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Old 03-03-2019, 10:17 AM   #55
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Equibase did give the effort a solid 111 figure but he winner ran a final half panel in a snail-like seven seconds. That doesn't provide much inspiration going longer. Bourbon War closed fast but couldn't get the job done when the chips fell in his lap. I'm tossing everything in that race from a Derby win position.
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:55 PM   #56
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Gonna get better next out . . .

As for the top three, I don't think we've seen their best race. Vekoma and Code Of Honor came in on works; Bourbon War w/a nice effort splitting horses in his last. With more seasoning and experience I figure Code of Honor and Bourbon War will be getting substantially better as the distance gets longer. I think Vekoma is hindered by his running inefficiency but the colt shows a lot of determination.

The Florida Derby is only 27 days out; it is gonna be run this month, quick turnaround time. It'll be interesting to watch these three. I figure 10 days off, maybe a few more then back to the track, maybe two 4f works before the Florida. The Florida is 9fl, considering their Dosage, these colts will be formidable. Code of Honor is particularly troubling to me . . . that DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = 0.00 indicates the colt can stay. With respect to the CD, as I've cited before w/this colt, I've seen that CD once in the past 15 years; he is gonna be particularly tough.

I found the track to be a bit odd . . . if it was fast n' dry, why the wet kickback?
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Old 03-03-2019, 06:38 PM   #57
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First time watching the replay.

1st thought
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Irad 'played' the rail in the Holy Bull aboard Epic Dreamer from one of the inside posts. Was a smart ride, and put that long shot into the race for a while.

I don't feel that Epic Dreamer is naturally the quickest horse. Will be interesting whether 'tentative' Tyler employs a copycat strategy. He really should.
Yikes. Was that some really dumb strategy move by the connections, or was Tyler tentative and failed to quarterhorse?? Replay looks like a less than all-out break, although he's somewhat trying.
Horse had no biz in this race, but as a nerdy horseplayer critic, it was so dumb to not be all-out to get into the first flight for that first turn. I guess as far as keeping a bum out of the mix and affecting the race, it was actually a good thing, but if I cared about the having some zillion-1 shot, I'd be pissed!

2nd thing= 1st turn and pace =
The Pace was actually pretty hot. - I didn't really watch it for anything other than my in running, but the and did get tested a bit with pace from their posts. Seemed really dumb that Rosario went to the lead and went so hard through the turn. We all knew that a bum() would break on top, and he could have saved significant horse without losing significant position. That said, I have no idea how tactical and professional Hidden Scroll is. Also a dumb ride by Saez on the . Should not have shown Hidden Scroll any respect, and the first turn was even harder from post 8. I can excuse Saez here somewhat, because these guys don't know the horses as well, and the public(and Joel Rosario) thought Hidden Scroll was a star who needed to be respected even at that pace. Both should have been rating easily 2nd/3rd behind Gladiator King, but you can't expect them to be perfect.
and were completely eliminated as expected. The actually ran a fairly good race to eventually get 6th. Not a Graded Stakes Route level race, but a strong race.

3rd thing = and really got dream trips
We expected they would get dream trips (the main danger was a more moderate pace and/or either the ,,or:5 running a 'big' race thus relegating them to the underneath positions.
The took 2nd run and got a breather while having few strides on the wrong lead and then changing with good momentum, so the 's final deep stretch run will look flattered. The hung on slightly better than you would expect, considering he broke too well and went to the lead instead of the 2nd flight, but the failed to carry momentum well, and probably should have taken fourth.

last thoughts =
Tough race to bet out of. We know the is a nice animal, but there's still some unanswered questions about true 2-turn scenarios as well as 9F and further for the (and the as well). We may or may not see the Public overbet the coming out of this race. Don't look like a triple crown horse, but he could always bounce back, if he's able to show a press/stalk dimension and he happens to get a really good trip next out. He would have been a lot closer even in the FOY had he had a softer trip, but he never looked like a winner today. This bunch is vulnerable to anyone running a big race.
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Old 03-03-2019, 08:31 PM   #58
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Servis might have a decent horse in Final Jeopardy who won the 12th at Gulf Sunday afternoon hitting the mile wire about a second slower than Hidden Scroll's maiden voyage and a final panel a little faster than that effort. Can't really compare a one turn race to the two turn FOY but he did hit the mile about a second faster than leader Hidden Scroll did in the FOY. Maybe one to keep an eye on. He's also a Buckpasser-x.
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Old 03-05-2019, 01:01 AM   #59
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I'm OK with a bunch out of this race.
The Shug winner(nice pick Tom/jocko) looked like he had talent.....and how to use it......so that was good.
Bourbon seems correct......he can run.
Vekoma ran really well considering he needed the race badly......like him.
Signalman had to be a short horse......he'll be sneaky @ Keenland in his next(I presume that's where he shows up).
All of the others need easier.

Last edited by taxicab; 03-05-2019 at 01:03 AM.
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